The over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams and is 3-1-1 in the Astros’ last five road games. The over is also 5-1-1 in the Astros’ last seven games when they’re an underdog and is 5-1-1 in their last seven games when they’re a road dog. On the other side, the over is 3-1-1 in the Yankees’ last five games overall and is 5-0 in their last five games when they play the third game of a series. N.Y. OV 7.5 /A.Rome
The Braves are now a perfect 4-0 in their last four games versus the Nationals and are 4-0 in their last four games in Washington. The Nationals, meanwhile, are 2-5 in their last seven games versus a left-handed starter and are 1-4 in their last five games as a home underdog. Atl -115 /A.Rome
Initially, I leaned under in this game since we’re getting two pitchers having career years and an under-leaning umpire (Dan Iassogna, 241-216 to the under +12.91 units). However, at 7.5, that number is a little too low for me.
I do expect this to be a relatively low-scoring, tight affair. These two teams took a 3-3 tie into the bottom of the eighth last night, and I expect a similarly hard-fought battle today.
Given this expectation, I think the value lies with the heavy underdogs. The Astros probably shouldn’t be as high as +175 in this game, even against Cole.
However, that’s not the only reason I’m leaning Houston today.
Firstly, I think the Houston lineup will match up better with Cole than the Yankees’ lineup with McCullers. The Astros are ninth in MLB in weighted fastball runs created at 10.5, and they should have some success against Cole’s four-seamer. Meanwhile, the Yankees have posted a combined -0.8 weighted curveball and sinker runs created and may struggle with McCullers’ arsenal.
Secondly, while Cole has been otherworldly, McCullers has had a very good season himself and should hold his own at Yankee Stadium. Also, the Astros have posted much better offensive numbers against righties than the Yankees have.
It’s tough to fade a team as hot as the Yankees with a pitcher as good as Cole on the mound, but I think the Astros aren’t properly priced here. I’m looking to play Houston at anything better than +160.
Pick: Astros +180 (Play down to +160)/ By T.McGrath
The Brewers and the Phillies are evenly matched on Thursday afternoon, and the odds show it. According to my model, the best bet is on the Phillies as +105 home underdogs. The edge is so small, though, that I would not want to bet it myself.
For me, the best bet on the game is not on a side, but on the run total, which is only seven runs. Even though both teams’ lineups are underperforming and there is strong starting pitching, at least seven runs should be scored.
While the over is juice at -120, you have the extra advantage of getting a push if exactly seven runs are scored. In a game featuring players such as Gregorius and Hoskins for the Phillies and Cain and Daniel Vogelbach for the Brewers, I have a hard time seeing how six or fewer runs will be scored. That is why I am taking the over as long as the run total stays at seven runs.
Pick: Over 7 -115 (play to -125)/ By K.Davis
Both starting pitchers are hard to trust entering this contest. Early signs point to Smyly’s 2020 success being a small sample aberration, while Lester’s skills are in swift decline.
Smyly at least has the ability to miss some bats, and the Atlanta offense has been much better than Washington’s to this point. They rank 10th in runs per game at 4.67, while the Nationals are 28th, with just 3.50 runs per game.
Expect the BRAVES (-115) to come away with the victory./ By B.Rudd
Turnbull has shown some respectable skills in the early going, but Eovaldi has been even better. The Red Sox are averaging a full two more runs per game than the Tigers (4.97 to 2.97), who rank dead last in the majors in the category.
Look for the RED SOX -1.5 (-110) to cash with a win by 2 or more runs Thursday afternoon.
Eovaldi has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in four of his six starts. In this game, he gets a great matchup against a Detroit offense that has struggled to get anything going offensively.
On the other side, the Red Sox have put up more than 6 runs just once in their last 14 tries, and Turnbull should be able to avoid disaster and keep it fairly close. A small play on UNDER 8.5 (-110) looks like the way to go. /By B.Rudd
he DIAMONDBACKS (+110) are looking to salvage a victory after being thoroughly outplayed through the first two games of this series.
The Marlins outscored the Snakes 17-3 in the first two outings and cashed as favorites. I like MadBum to serve as the stopper and give Arizona something positive before flying out.
By J.Williams
METS -1.5 (+135) is the likable side.
Peg the Redbird bullpen as perhaps being as overrated as any right now. Their 3.87 ERA is tamped down by a .243 batting average on balls in play and a low 5.5% rate of fly balls landing as home runs. Add in a double-digit mph batter’s wind in the forecast and the fact Mets relievers get a lot more ground balls than their St. Louis counterparts.
Also, the top end of the Cards ‘pen figures to be much more fatigued than that of the Mets.
On a fade of both starters and the Cardinal bullpen — and a severe one in all three cases — TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115). / By S.Snow
Play Against
Home teams (PHILADELPHIA)
poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=2.70) -NL, with an on base percentage of .260 or worse over their last 3 games
29-10 over the last 5 seasons.
74.4% (19.5 units)
Play Against
All favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (MIAMI)
team with a terrible SLG (<=.390) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP<=1.250) -NL, cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games
29-16 over the last 5 seasons.
64.4% (22.5 units)
I felt it was important to focus on both offenses coming into this game. Arizona’s hitters have been sputtering, and we know they’re a much different team once you take them out of Chase Field.
It also hasn’t helped they’re currently without two-thirds of their starting outfield, with Ketel Marte and Kole Calhoun on the IL with hamstring injuries.
Marte has only played in six games, but was off to a hot start with a .462 AVG, .846 SLG., in addition to two home runs and five RBIs. Calhoun has played in 13 games, hitting .292 with a slugging percentage of .479. He’s hit at least 15 home runs in each of the last seven seasons, including 33 in 2019.
I just don’t see where the runs will come from for Arizona in this game. And if it remains a close contest, you’d have to give the edge to a Marlins bullpen that’s seventh in the league with a 3.46 ERA compared to Arizona that’s 27th with a 5.27 ERA.
We know about Arizona’s offensive woes on the road, its depleted lineup and Bumgarner’s struggles against the Marlins. Here’s another thing to keep in mind: Since the 2016 season, the Diamondbacks are just 5-12 for a loss of 8.44 units at Marlins Park.
Andrew Heaney has been a fascinating pitcher for the Angels this season.
On some nights, Heaney is one of the most dominant starting pitchers, going about six innings and allowing two earned runs or less. On other nights, he’s an unmitigated disaster, lasting for fewer than four innings and giving up four or more earned runs.
What makes betting on Heaney’s strikeout props puzzling besides his usage is that he has a high strikeout rate. The million-dollar question for Heaney is if he can pitch enough innings to have eight or more strikeouts in this game.
The Tampa Bay Rays’ lineup averages 9.29 strikeouts per game. which is the eighth-highest total in the league. Heaney has a strikeout rate of 12.75 strikeouts per nine innings this season. If Heaney pitches for six innings, he should have eight or more strikeouts. However, that appears to be too small of a needle to thread.
For his career, Heaney averages around 5 2/3 innings per start. On a good night, Heaney will fall just short of his high strikeout total. If he has a bad night, which is possible, Heaney will go under his strikeout total. That is why I like Heaney’s under in this showdown.
Pick: Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-110) | Would play up to -135/
This game is going to be fun to watch because both teams have been unpredictable through the first month of the season, but they have been getting healthier heading into May. It also appears both squads should feature competitive lineups the day after a night game due to the unique start time.
This is why I like the over 9.5 runs. The weather looks good and some wind could come into play as the day goes along. The Braves have also crossed five runs in 17 of 29 games heading into Wednesday night’s game.
Smyly and Lester are who they are and have little upside but grave-level floors. I also expect this game’s best players — Ronald Acuña Jr., Trea Turner and Soto — to be in the lineup as both teams continue to jockey for position in the National League East.
Pick: Over 9.5 +100 (bet to -115) / By J.Hicks
Boy, oh boy, is this one going to be a slugfest with these two starting pitchers on the mound. Drew Smyly’s career in Atlanta has not gotten off to the greatest of starts as the left-hander is struggling through his first four starts with an xERA of 7.12 and an xFIP of 5.42. His biggest issue? He can’t keep the ball in the yard, as he’s already given up nine home runs in only 19 innings pitched. Now he’ll be facing one of the best lineups in baseball against left-handed pitching. The Nationals’ lineup is hitting a cool .300 with a .373 wOBA, both of which are the second-best marks in MLB.
Ol’ Jonny Lester is still hanging around in the league, but that doesn’t mean he’s still effective at age 37. Lester posted career-worst numbers with Chicago last season, including a 5.11 xFIP and only a 6.20 K/9 rate. He’s lost all of his velocity, as none of his pitches average faster than 90 mph anymore. He’ll be facing one of the best lineups in baseball that actually leads the majors in wOBA.
With these two starters on the mound, I think this one is going to get out of hand quickly, so give me Over 9 runs at -115./ By B.Cunningham
I absolutely love Andrew Heaney in this spot today.
Heaney’s 5.25 ERA and 1.13 WHIP aren’t great. However, he’s due for some positive regression, as he’s posted a 3.36 xERA and a 3.00 xFIP. Moreover, if you exclude two horrific starts against the Mariners and White Sox, Heaney has allowed just three runs on seven hits over 17 2/3 innings.
Today is an awesome matchup for Heaney. Heaney’s biggest strength is missing bats, as he ranks among the top 20% of pitchers in whiff rate and chase rate, and he’s striking out a ridiculous 35.1% of batters faced this season.
The Rays have not been making contact recently. Over the past two weeks, the Rays have struck out on 28.6% of their plate appearances, second-most in baseball.
Meanwhile, when the Rays do make contact, they haven’t been making solid contact. During the same time frame, the Rays have the fourth-highest ground ball rate (48.6%) and the 10th-highest fly ball rate (35.6%). That adds up to the lowest line-drive rate (15.8%), which helps explain why the Rays have posted just a .203 batting average and a .627 OPS over the past two weeks.
Moreover, during the past two weeks and against lefties, the Rays are batting just .181 with a .610 OPS while striking out in 34.3% of plate appearances. I’m expecting the left-handed Heaney to mow down the Rays’ lineup today.
The Rays will have reliever Collin McHugh start the game, but he’ll most likely serve as an opener of some sort.
I fully believe that the Angels will avoid a disastrous four-game sweep on the back of Heaney’s pitching. I played the Angels ML at -121 on PointsBet but would take caution in playing them at worse than -125 / By T.McGrath
Tampa Bay has won three consecutive games against Los Angeles in fairly convincing fashion, but it continues to be a sizable underdog. The Rays have won the previous two games at plus money, so I’m electing to back them as again in this spot.
While I don’t necessarily trust McHugh and the fact Tampa Bay will likely fall behind in the first half of the game, Los Angeles had the starting-pitching advantage in the latest game as well.
I don’t expect McHugh to go very long anyway, and once you get to the bullpens, the Angels rank 23rd in the league with a 4.55 bullpen ERA.
More concerning is the fact Los Angeles is one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. The Angels have the worst fielding percentage in the league, ranking 29th in Defensive Runs Saved. They lead the league with 29 errors.
I think this game is essentially a coin flip, so after seeing the Rays come away victories as the underdogs in the two previous games, I am happy to back them again in a similar situation.
Pick: Tampa Bay ML +120 (play down to +105)/ By M.Ianniello
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