This is the most competitive Kentucky Derby that I can remember in a long, long time and it should be a great bettor’s race in addition to being just a great race!
Since any number of 10 or 11 horses can win this race and it’s hard to separate most of them, I’ve decided to do something I haven’t ever done by using a handicapping angle that has been gaining a bit of steam the past few years among the better cappers.
The theory is based on this: the majority of winners who have won the Kentucky Derby in the past 50 years have been in the lead or second with a furlong to the wire.
So I did some rationalizing and devised a handicapping method to play this angle. First, I looked at every horse that has raced 1-1/8 miles the closest distance to the 1-1/4 miles distance of the Big Race. I reviewed which horses were either in the lead or second at the precise distance they would need to be to win the Derby, if my theory is correct.
Next, I looked at their speed figures. Then, I rated each track in which each horse raced while being first or second in the stretch for speed and bias. Next, I assigned added weight to each horse that raced and won, placed or showed at Churchill Downs. For ties, I gave the edge to a horse that might have beaten the one he is tied with or beaten one of the higher rated horses.