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Belmont Stakes 2015

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Posted: #26
Interesting scenario. Who was the last two year old male champion to be denied the Triple Crown at Belmont ? The answer is why A/P will win it !!
 
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Posted: #27
Also, the last three crown winners shared the same award as two year old champion
 
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Posted: #28

ROUSED, I love AP here....Victor will have AP stalking that War Story for as long as he wants...then will pounce as soon as he starts fading...

I really think the horse racing industry will truly WANT a TC winner and with the Baffert / Espinoza /zayat connections ...they won't be ganging up on AP like they did to CC last year...Did you hit the tri's/super in Preakness?..Nice paying exotics with a 4/5 on top..

 
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Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:


Quote: Originally Posted by angrybarber] Trying to figure out a track bias when it downpours 20 mins to post is pretty much impossible.Any conversation doing so is just gonna be speculation. The best horse beat a suspect field, where his supposed toughest challengers race was over when the gates opened.Dortmund clearly wants no part of classic distances. I was wrong about him bouncing back.Good to get a point of view from someone who was actually on the track. Good work DJ


But Angry you  posted above that you liked CC chances better last year than AP's this year...Don't get it at all...AP appears to be a far superior animal to CC...
I understand he might be very tired...but considering Victor's poor ride, getting stepped on coming out of the gate, and the whole horse community wanting to take down CC's yahoo connections, if Baffert and Espinoza don't win the TC this time..I don't see a BETTER situation setting up for racing immortality for AP...


Actually i said I didn't like CCs chances but i feared him. I don't fear AP in the Belmont, again not a knock on his previous accomplishments.

You guys get to emotionally attached for whatever reason. THIS IS JUST 1 HORSE RACE! Handicap it objectively without emotion and tell me AP will win and I'll tell you you're crazy. I don't know how many times i have to say this but as these races get longer AP finishes them slower. It's really plain and simple.

You act like horse owners and trainers have personal vendettas against each other. Like last year with all those absurd rants. The majority of them are millionaires and winning the Belmont just means $$$$ to them for a loooong time! Breeding is where the $ is. They point there horses to the Belmont before the Preakness ever happens.

And before we get to far into any of these conversations Baffert and Zayat lined up to play the spoiler roll in 2012 before IHA scratched the Friday before the Belmont so don't act like there the good guys in the who would never do such a thing bc you're dead wrong. You wanna knock all the connections who ran in the Belmont last year for doing the same thing but now you'll root the sane type of people. I'm pretty sure that makes you a hypocrite


Actually i said I didn't like CCs chances but i feared him. I don't fear AP in the Belmont, again not a knock on his previous accomplishments.

You guys get to emotionally attached for whatever reason. THIS IS JUST 1 HORSE RACE! Handicap it objectively without emotion and tell me AP will win and I'll tell you you're crazy. I don't know how many times i have to say this but as these races get longer AP finishes them slower. It's really plain and simple.

You act like horse owners and trainers have personal vendettas against each other. Like last year with all those absurd rants. The majority of them are millionaires and winning the Belmont just means $$$$ to them for a loooong time! Breeding is where the $ is. They point there horses to the Belmont before the Preakness ever happens.

And before we get to far into any of these conversations Baffert and Zayat lined up to play the spoiler roll in 2012 before IHA scratched the Friday before the Belmont so don't act like there the good guys in the who would never do such a thing bc you're dead wrong. You wanna knock all the connections who ran in the Belmont last year for doing the same thing but now you'll root the sane type of people. I'm pretty sure that makes you a hypocrite
 
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Posted: #30
Completely agree that AP is a much better horse than CC. On the flip side, these three year olds are much better than last years, which is both good and bad for AP. 

Horses like Materiality and Frosted are very good horses and aren't even considered in the top five in most rankings this year. 

I also think Dortmund is a very good horse and will be fine. Firing Line and AP are just simply better. I also don't think a horse like that is great on short rest. 

These horses are racing for a 500k to the winner and huge breeding futures for winning. They aren't out to deny a TC, rather to win. When horses ran against Smarty, they weren't ganging up per se, rather they didn't want him to set an easy pace. Exhausting a horse to defeat another makes little sense unless you are sending a rabbit for the same ownership group. 

Its as simple as the fact that fresh horses race better at the Belmont. Point Given and Afleet Alex are really the only exceptions in recent years. 

I want AP to win, but the odds really are stacked against him, Taking him at such low odds really is a suckers bet when you look at history. 

Think about it like this: lets say you started with Spectacular Bid and bet $2 on every other horse and parlayed your winnings so that you bet your winnings for the previous TC eligible Belmont race spread out on every other horse but the horse going for the TC.

You would have over 15k today. Not accounting for track takeouts, you would have over triple that. 

Based on that, the odds tell you to bet against AP, The problem is (at least my) heart tells one otherwise. 


 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:

ROUSED, I love AP here....Victor will have AP stalking that War Story for as long as he wants...then will pounce as soon as he starts fading...

I really think the horse racing industry will truly WANT a TC winner and with the Baffert / Espinoza /zayat connections ...they won't be ganging up on AP like they did to CC last year...Did you hit the tri's/super in Preakness?..Nice paying exotics with a 4/5 on top


With all the hate for A/P we might get some sweet prices 
 
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by djbrow:

Completely agree that AP is a much better horse than CC. On the flip side, these three year olds are much better than last years, which is both good and bad for AP. 

Horses like Materiality and Frosted are very good horses and aren't even considered in the top five in most rankings this year. 

I also think Dortmund is a very good horse and will be fine. Firing Line and AP are just simply better. I also don't think a horse like that is great on short rest. 



These horses are racing for a 500k to the winner and huge breeding futures for winning. They aren't out to deny a TC, rather to win. When horses ran against Smarty, they weren't ganging up per se, rather they didn't want him to set an easy pace. Exhausting a horse to defeat another makes little sense unless you are sending a rabbit for the same ownership group. 

Its as simple as the fact that fresh horses race better at the Belmont. Point Given and Afleet Alex are really the only exceptions in recent years. 

I want AP to win, but the odds really are stacked against him, Taking him at such low odds really is a suckers bet when you look at history. 

Think about it like this: lets say you started with Spectacular Bid and bet $2 on every other horse and parlayed your winnings so that you bet your winnings for the previous TC eligible Belmont race spread out on every other horse but the horse going for the TC.

You would have over 15k today. Not accounting for track takeouts, you would have over triple that. 

Based on that, the odds tell you to bet against AP, The problem is (at least my) heart tells one otherwise. 



Non of the losers were two year old Champions.
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by Roused:


Non of the losers were two year old Champions.

Which means nothing in actually handicapping this race.
 
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Posted: #34
Well, it is 75% since 1973 and the Bid should won.
 
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Posted: #35
That has nothing to do with whether he wins the race or not
 
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Posted: #36
To say this years crop is better then last years is way premature. Let's not forget 3 yos ran 1-2-3 in the BC Classic last year. Tapiture finished 2nd in the mile.
Tonalist won the JCGC, i mean last years crop was pretty good.

FL gets a ton of praise for winning the horrible Sunland Derby. He hasn't proved anything and people praise him. I don't get it at all.
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by Roused:

Well, it is 75% since 1973 and the Bid should won.

Your correlation might have some meaning if such champions were equated with more Belmont winners. But the last Bellont that was a two-year-old champion was Easy Goer
 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by angrybarber:

To say this years crop is better then last years is way premature. Let's not forget 3 yos ran 1-2-3 in the BC Classic last year. Tapiture finished 2nd in the mile.
Tonalist won the JCGC, i mean last years crop was pretty good.

FL gets a ton of praise for winning the horrible Sunland Derby. He hasn't proved anything and people praise him. I don't get it at all.

As for firing line, if you throw out his Preakness race, he's never had a bad race.

 And you are right. We really won't know until they start facing other horses. But the horses from last year that were at the top of their class, really haven't done much. 

I think it's pretty well-known that had shared believe not been taken out in the classic he wins pretty easily
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by djbrow:


Which means nothing in actually handicapping this race.

Dont waste your breath . These kids have no clue.. The best is when you ask them to handicap a race and they just run away.. 

Going by the current field , Frosted urinates on the field when AP hits a blind switch.. This site is filled with the worst gamblers in the world.. I have never seen such piss poor planning in my life.. I am so curious to see what they have to say when my horse wins.. 
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by Knoxpoker:

Quote Originally Posted by djbrow:

Which means nothing in actually handicapping this race.
Dont waste your breath . These kids have no clue.. The best is when you ask them to handicap a race and they just run away.. Going by the current field , Frosted urinates on the field when AP hits a blind switch.. This site is filled with the worst gamblers in the world.. I have never seen such piss poor planning in my life.. I am so curious to see what they have to say when my horse wins..


Ohhhh all the sudden Frosted is a good horse?? Is that right? Did you not mock him and say that he was inferior?? There's a lot of clowns on this site but you sir are by the biggest clown around. You probably have the face paint and everything... Unreal
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by djbrow:

Quote Originally Posted by angrybarber:

To say this years crop is better then last years is way premature. Let's not forget 3 yos ran 1-2-3 in the BC Classic last year. Tapiture finished 2nd in the mile.Tonalist won the JCGC, i mean last years crop was pretty good.FL gets a ton of praise for winning the horrible Sunland Derby. He hasn't proved anything and people praise him. I don't get it at all.
As for firing line, if you throw out his Preakness race, he's never had a bad race. And you are right. We really won't know until they start facing other horses. But the horses from last year that were at the top of their class, really haven't done much. I think it's pretty well-known that had shared believe not been taken out in the classic he wins pretty easily


And to that point Shared Belief was also a 3 yo at the time.

I'm just saying maybe all this greatest 3 yo crop talk is a little soon. And im not saying you came up with this idea but people always jump the gun. Wait til October and then we'll have a better idea
 
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Posted: #42
Quote Originally Posted by Knoxpoker:

[
Dont waste your breath . These kids have no clue.. The best is when you ask them to handicap a race and they just run away.. Going by the current field , Frosted urinates on the field when AP hits a blind switch.. This site is filled with the worst gamblers in the world.. I have never seen such piss poor planning in my life.. I am so curious to see what they have to say when my horse wins..


I laid down a real handicapping challenge for your punk ass but you never responded. Im sure you'll claim to have not seen it but you're probably just scared or you're busy with your clown paint.
2 words for you Bozo...
Commanding Curve


I laid down a real handicapping challenge for your punk ass but you never responded. Im sure you'll claim to have not seen it but you're probably just scared or you're busy with your clown paint.
2 words for you Bozo...
Commanding Curve
 
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Posted: #43
This is from 11 days ago Bozo:

In response to your lame challenge, i have an actual handicapping challenge. 19 races.
Peter Pan
Beaugay
Man O War on 5-9

The Black Eyed-Susan and Pimlico Special on 5-16

The Gallorette Handicap
Sir Barton Stakes
Dixie Stakes
Preakness. On 5-17

And then the 10 stakes races on Belmont Stakes Day on 6-6

19 races, NTRA contest rules
 
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Posted: #44
My opinion gents ... AP does not win and neither will Frosted ... 

Laugh guys , but so far I have only 2 horse's that can win this race .. 

Carpe Diem or Mubtaahij .... I have my reasons which I'm keeping to myself . 

No need to bash ... just my opinion ... 


 
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Posted: #45
Upside, won't bash, I also think that AP won't win, I think Keen Ice has a chance as well, I'm just trying to figure out who really could make the mile and a half, there are always good horses more than 30 lengths back at the end out of breath and panting.  Wonder why you think Frosted has no chance, I think the 5 weeks off plus the fact that the Derby wasn't too taxing on him, and he can make the distance makes him a contender, but he may be too short a price (4-1?) which would make him a possible underlay, depending on how much they bet down AP.
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by howzuck:

Upside, won't bash, I also think that AP won't win, I think Keen Ice has a chance as well, I'm just trying to figure out who really could make the mile and a half, there are always good horses more than 30 lengths back at the end out of breath and panting.  Wonder why you think Frosted has no chance, I think the 5 weeks off plus the fact that the Derby wasn't too taxing on him, and he can make the distance makes him a contender, but he may be too short a price (4-1?) which would make him a possible underlay, depending on how much they bet down AP.
  I was all over Frosted when he skipped the Derby until I broke down his Pedigree .. Frosted may finish 2nd but he won't win ... I have gotten bashed many times before , for believing in Pedigree stats , therefore I'm sorry bro but I can't share the reason why Frosted won't win .. I can tell you this ...Frosted is in a category with Frammento and Madefromlucky that's held up since 1980 but who knows bro this could be the year the streak is broken ? Look at AP ,  being the first horse in 44 tries to win the Derby with the Storm Cat Pedigree .. I got lucky and hit the exacta,tri and super in the Preakness all for just a quarter , bu I'll take it ... With the Pedigree breakdown I completely eliminated Firing Line in the Preakness and I hated Danzig Moon , while I had Dortmund in the 3-4 position due to his Derby run .. Feel when the horse's are this young anything can happen ... Not trying to sway anyone off any horse they like ... just giving an opinion , is all . 
 
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Posted: #47
Quote Originally Posted by Upside:

  I was all over Frosted when he skipped the Derby until I broke down his Pedigree .. Frosted may finish 2nd but he won't win ... I have gotten bashed many times before , for believing in Pedigree stats , therefore I'm sorry bro but I can't share the reason why Frosted won't win .. I can tell you this ...Frosted is in a category with Frammento and Madefromlucky that's held up since 1980 but who knows bro this could be the year the streak is broken ? Look at AP ,  being the first horse in 44 tries to win the Derby with the Storm Cat Pedigree .. I got lucky and hit the exacta,tri and super in the Preakness all for just a quarter , bu I'll take it ... With the Pedigree breakdown I completely eliminated Firing Line in the Preakness and I hated Danzig Moon , while I had Dortmund in the 3-4 position due to his Derby run .. Feel when the horse's are this young anything can happen ... Not trying to sway anyone off any horse they like ... just giving an opinion , is all . 

I made a mistake on Frosted ... in my pedigree research ... he can win ... Disregard ..above ...my bad 
 
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Posted: #48
Upside, thanks for sharing the info, I also think Frosted has the pedigree to win, that's what this forum is for, not for bashing.  Of course I have disagreed with people here, but I am always respectful, I have seen so many good people leave over my many years here leave because of haters and bashing.  Anyway, I hope I haven't caused you confusion about your handicapping, maybe it's now clarified.  I appreciate that you revisited it just because I brought it up.  I would love to nail down this race to a 5 horse superfecta box (and would love even more not to include AP) and of course other wagers, hopefully we can reach this common goal.
 
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Posted: #49
Roused, I haven't forgotten about you, I do think AP can win (but I don't think he will), either by default or on an off track, but I would pass on a 3-5 or 4-5 price and it wouldn't bother me a bit if he then won easily.  If you think he's a "lock" or a "gift" that's fine, I don't agree, but that's what makes a market or parimutuel pool.
 
 
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Posted: #50
For what its worth over 2 weeks out here's my top 5 win contenders not in order, that will come later:
Materiality
Frosted
Carpe Diem
Mubtaahij
Keen Ice

I strongly believe the winner is one of those 5. I believe payouts will be quite good this year. After researching some things, I'm strongly against AP to even run well in this spot.
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