Some of you out there have read a few of my posts, most of which are emotionally driven bullshit (usually stemming from my unabashed hatred for the mainstream sporting media) but largely I remain an anonymous figure here at covers. I like it that way, and it is fun to come on and vent from time to time. I have read at least a dozen threads over the years on guys wanting to know if it is possible to make a living betting on sports. Answers to this question usually range from "no...gambling is a waste of time and for suckers" all the way to sailing around the caribbean on a motoryaght with supermodels. The following is my two cents, and yes it is the correct answer to the question "is it possible to make a living being a professional gambler?"
Here is my background: 32 years old, medium size construction speculator, commodities trader, sports handicapper. The construction ate shit in 2008, I still trade commodities and bet college football. The trading has been ok for a few years, the betting was below average last season.
I will focus the discussion to sports gambling (which is very similiar to commodities trading regarding money management principles, but very different in many other aspects of function...thus we will save the trading tallk for the investment forum.).
The following components are absolutely necessary in order to make a living betting on sports:
1) MONEY. Money management is the game. Period. You must have enough money to make it worth the time and to whether draw downs. Period. In my mind, at least $250,000, at 1-3% per wager. 2500-7500. It is a thousand to one shot to run 5 grand into 55 grand every year to pay the bills.... forget it.
2) A DEFINED EDGE. You must have an absolute defined edge. I don't care whether it is a statistical advantage concerning angles or line moves, or whether it is a certain fundamental handicapping edge or even a "gut" edge.
Two quick points on "edges": statisticians will tell you that in order to have a meaningfull statistical edge concerning a given parameter or set of parameters, it must be applied to a minimum of 10,000 trials in order to be seen as "relevant".
As for having a "gut" edge....yes they do exist. It takes a tremendous amount of experience and balls to stick with your "gut" over time and the number of bets necessary to achieve a living, but it can be and is done with success.
3) DISCIPLINE THROUGH CONSITANCY. Be consistant with the approach. Once you have the necessary money and defined edge, execute the fucking plan. Do not deviate, do not second guess, roll it out.
If these three things are attainable then sports betting is a money making proposition.
There are two ways to go when betting for the long haul:
1) Small edge applied over a large number of wagers. System wagering fits this style well.
2) Larger edge over a small number of wagers. Discretionary approach.
System wagering is easier for human beings to execute because all emotion is removed; that is if you can fully commit and not pull the plug on your system during a drawdown or cold streak.
Discretionary wagering is bitch pure and simple. However, some of the most successfull investors, traders, and gamblers are discretionary. I have great respect for these guys because they can stay out of their own way and make money.
Speculation is a zero sum game, and there is an infallible way to see if you won or not. The scoreboard is denomonated in dollars, euros or lira, and if you don't win then you lose. Period.
I won't bullshit anyone out there and say that I have been an overly successfull speculator. Real estate was a tough beat on a supposedly safe bet, commodities trading pays the bills for now, and at the end of a given football season, I have more money than when I started......but to say that being a speculator is a rewarding experience is bullshit.
If you are a young guy just starting out and want to make a life out of this then go get the money and the edge and apply the consistancy. Do those things and you will have a chance.