BA.....can you tell me why i shouldn't add some BC-5 (already took a piece -2.5 at open) .....the more i review this game the more negative boxes i check off for wake. they have the distraction of the hurricane (ie family issues), moving of gametime + hurricane will likely greatly reduce the home crowd, wake missing starting qb (backup been ok though 3 ints), boston less reliant on pass and will be breezy so dillon is a big advantage, bc better offense and defense, wake cluster injuries/questionable defensive players returning? did i miss anything?
total steamed up to 54....hmmmmm....seems high to me
puffkit, I am curious what BA thinks as well, especially on that total. I might have jumped the gun Monday night with about half of my Total plays targeting games near the hurricane's path. I'm locked in on BC/WF Under 50, 52, & 52.5. And now the total is up to 54. I too am surprised by this line movement. I am hoping my main man Jimmy Reid goes old school in a low scoring defensive game that I associate with him (he coached with my Dad many years back). And knowing that the hurricane at least has the possibility of bringing the lousy weather factor to this came, I suspect old school Addazio's gameplan could involve handing the ball off to A.J. Dillon about 42 times. Winning a low scoring defensive game with the power run game in (potentially - let's hope so) lousy weather gives guys like Addazio a hard-on. That's my narrative for this one.
BA.....can you tell me why i shouldn't add some BC-5 (already took a piece -2.5 at open) .....the more i review this game the more negative boxes i check off for wake. they have the distraction of the hurricane (ie family issues), moving of gametime + hurricane will likely greatly reduce the home crowd, wake missing starting qb (backup been ok though 3 ints), boston less reliant on pass and will be breezy so dillon is a big advantage, bc better offense and defense, wake cluster injuries/questionable defensive players returning? did i miss anything?
total steamed up to 54....hmmmmm....seems high to me
puffkit, I am curious what BA thinks as well, especially on that total. I might have jumped the gun Monday night with about half of my Total plays targeting games near the hurricane's path. I'm locked in on BC/WF Under 50, 52, & 52.5. And now the total is up to 54. I too am surprised by this line movement. I am hoping my main man Jimmy Reid goes old school in a low scoring defensive game that I associate with him (he coached with my Dad many years back). And knowing that the hurricane at least has the possibility of bringing the lousy weather factor to this came, I suspect old school Addazio's gameplan could involve handing the ball off to A.J. Dillon about 42 times. Winning a low scoring defensive game with the power run game in (potentially - let's hope so) lousy weather gives guys like Addazio a hard-on. That's my narrative for this one.
one other note on that wake/bc game. 53 players on the wake roster are from NC, SC or Georgia. thats alot of kids worrying about whats coming.........hard to focus on football.
one other note on that wake/bc game. 53 players on the wake roster are from NC, SC or Georgia. thats alot of kids worrying about whats coming.........hard to focus on football.
one other note on that wake/bc game. 53 players on the wake roster are from NC, SC or Georgia. thats alot of kids worrying about whats coming.........hard to focus on football.
like your avatar pic Good ...ol Phil Collins RIP he was great on the TPB.......
one other note on that wake/bc game. 53 players on the wake roster are from NC, SC or Georgia. thats alot of kids worrying about whats coming.........hard to focus on football.
like your avatar pic Good ...ol Phil Collins RIP he was great on the TPB.......
What the numbers SUGGEST the line 'should' be..... * not predicting the line * too early to do accurately......need at least TWO games to get a decent read......after 3 we should know much moreSince BEFORE this week's games...you can adjust yourselfeg. SMU plays TCU tough or wins / Mich struggles with W Mich > drop to 24 ish.......opposite occurs bump to 30ish note: actual line might be 35 in that case.....because NOBODY is gonna bet SMU < but line probably 'should' be 30 or so value wise.......get it?..............................
Only on two games so far...Troy +11 1/2 and oddly enough, I'm on SMU +36. Thirty-six is a lot of points (I know that is meaningless statement), but I do believe SMU hasnt shown what they are capable of and in addition Sonny Dykes is a capable coach of getting things turned around. Obviously, SMU won't win this game but I doubt anyone would have thought the spread in this game would have been 36 before the season started.
What the numbers SUGGEST the line 'should' be..... * not predicting the line * too early to do accurately......need at least TWO games to get a decent read......after 3 we should know much moreSince BEFORE this week's games...you can adjust yourselfeg. SMU plays TCU tough or wins / Mich struggles with W Mich > drop to 24 ish.......opposite occurs bump to 30ish note: actual line might be 35 in that case.....because NOBODY is gonna bet SMU < but line probably 'should' be 30 or so value wise.......get it?..............................
Only on two games so far...Troy +11 1/2 and oddly enough, I'm on SMU +36. Thirty-six is a lot of points (I know that is meaningless statement), but I do believe SMU hasnt shown what they are capable of and in addition Sonny Dykes is a capable coach of getting things turned around. Obviously, SMU won't win this game but I doubt anyone would have thought the spread in this game would have been 36 before the season started.
I think Tenn is going to get their first cover in week 3. Utep deserves serious consideration for the worst team in college football... I'm also leaning LSU over Auburn, I like WVU but I think i'd rather bet on the over when WVU goes to NC State to play what I consider to be the most underrated offense in college football... NC State has 4-5 NFL wr's, a very good Oline, an impressive RB tandem, and the most underrated QB in the country..
I actually rewatched NC State vs James Madison a handful of times since week one. Ryan Finley looks like a first rd pick, and the same can be said about about 4-5 WR's in this game, while neither team has a great defense... I'm expecting a shoot out amd an easy over..
agree with all of that AL.....no way I would lay that many to LSU .....
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
I think Tenn is going to get their first cover in week 3. Utep deserves serious consideration for the worst team in college football... I'm also leaning LSU over Auburn, I like WVU but I think i'd rather bet on the over when WVU goes to NC State to play what I consider to be the most underrated offense in college football... NC State has 4-5 NFL wr's, a very good Oline, an impressive RB tandem, and the most underrated QB in the country..
I actually rewatched NC State vs James Madison a handful of times since week one. Ryan Finley looks like a first rd pick, and the same can be said about about 4-5 WR's in this game, while neither team has a great defense... I'm expecting a shoot out amd an easy over..
agree with all of that AL.....no way I would lay that many to LSU .....
Thanks for all the insight couple questions based what the line is currently at and "what the line should be". Are these games now potential bets?
* kinda confusing I agree ha....I basically check what a few others think / compared to mine
eg. Rutgers @ Kan (before games played)
* I had Rut -6.......Vegas said 9...Sagarin 5...others 3-10 > so I thought 7 to be a fair #...BTW after games were played : I wouldn't change Rutgers at all (exactly what I thought would happen) ...KU maybe +2-3.....but based on most folks opinions tho I would probably put it now at Rutgers -2' or so
You have Hawaii as -2 but is +6-7. Been dominant so far but traveling across the country still seems this is worth a play.
$ yep 6-7 seems way too high.....Hawaii is used to this sort of thing.....> they go to great lengths in adjusting
You have NC St -3 but WVU is now up to -4. I actually like WVU but I'll trust your #s over my feelings any day.
$ I had WV -1' or so....Vegas said NCSU -5.....others 3-9 or so.....so I bumped it down to 3
Finally, you have Duke -7 and they are now +6!!! I love Duke so far and this seems like a great play. Curious on your feelings as to why this one should be avoided???
* Duke (should) win this one...usually the handicapping ANGLE....is to PLAY the team WITH the injuries....initially ...then look to FADE later....if they win here we will get serious line value at home vs Va Tech (ASSuming they whip NCC).....play the Hokies $$
THanks again
you bet BOL............
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
Thanks for all the insight couple questions based what the line is currently at and "what the line should be". Are these games now potential bets?
* kinda confusing I agree ha....I basically check what a few others think / compared to mine
eg. Rutgers @ Kan (before games played)
* I had Rut -6.......Vegas said 9...Sagarin 5...others 3-10 > so I thought 7 to be a fair #...BTW after games were played : I wouldn't change Rutgers at all (exactly what I thought would happen) ...KU maybe +2-3.....but based on most folks opinions tho I would probably put it now at Rutgers -2' or so
You have Hawaii as -2 but is +6-7. Been dominant so far but traveling across the country still seems this is worth a play.
$ yep 6-7 seems way too high.....Hawaii is used to this sort of thing.....> they go to great lengths in adjusting
You have NC St -3 but WVU is now up to -4. I actually like WVU but I'll trust your #s over my feelings any day.
$ I had WV -1' or so....Vegas said NCSU -5.....others 3-9 or so.....so I bumped it down to 3
Finally, you have Duke -7 and they are now +6!!! I love Duke so far and this seems like a great play. Curious on your feelings as to why this one should be avoided???
* Duke (should) win this one...usually the handicapping ANGLE....is to PLAY the team WITH the injuries....initially ...then look to FADE later....if they win here we will get serious line value at home vs Va Tech (ASSuming they whip NCC).....play the Hokies $$
BA.....can you tell me why i shouldn't add some BC-5 (already took a piece -2.5 at open) .....the more i review this game the more negative boxes i check off for wake. they have the distraction of the hurricane (ie family issues), moving of gametime + hurricane will likely greatly reduce the home crowd, wake missing starting qb (backup been ok though 3 ints), boston less reliant on pass and will be breezy so dillon is a big advantage, bc better offense and defense, wake cluster injuries/questionable defensive players returning? did i miss anything?
total steamed up to 54....hmmmmm....seems high to me
that was a great idea looks like ha................OVER 'seemed' like a great idea too.....the issue (and 1st thing to check) is PACE......as WF is top 5 in the country right behind UCF seems like
great link for pace + much more ..............
https://www.cfbanalytics.com/2018-tempo
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
BA.....can you tell me why i shouldn't add some BC-5 (already took a piece -2.5 at open) .....the more i review this game the more negative boxes i check off for wake. they have the distraction of the hurricane (ie family issues), moving of gametime + hurricane will likely greatly reduce the home crowd, wake missing starting qb (backup been ok though 3 ints), boston less reliant on pass and will be breezy so dillon is a big advantage, bc better offense and defense, wake cluster injuries/questionable defensive players returning? did i miss anything?
total steamed up to 54....hmmmmm....seems high to me
that was a great idea looks like ha................OVER 'seemed' like a great idea too.....the issue (and 1st thing to check) is PACE......as WF is top 5 in the country right behind UCF seems like
TD .... ha > yep I know one thing...fewer 'gifts' it seems like this year..........I wish they would set a start time and STAY with it !!.....
Moses......LM.....D-P........wmi799.......MMed.......SaxtonSportsPod (Arnie ? with a cig ha)....stretchrunner.....rooboybaz...........thanks boys BOL this week...............
UNI......maybe till Urban comes back ha....My reaction was that this wouldn't hurt them at all....even give them an 'edge'.....BTW Patterson said he agrees
* I took the 14 small....might add to it in-game either way.....Frogs stay close in a low scoring 1H...Bucks pull away 2H....??...................
LA_THE_KID......sorry didn't mean to...yep it's 6AM for them seems like....OVERReaction IMO....Army's big W over Liberty wtf?.................
the_dude911.......only thing with SMU play....is that Michigan is likely to keep their run going for awhile IMO....and that D a horrific match-up for the Ponies
* who gotta be kinda beat up off TCU (and NT)...with only ANOTHER likely beatdown to look forward to next vs Navy ( Mustang killer) ......
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
TD .... ha > yep I know one thing...fewer 'gifts' it seems like this year..........I wish they would set a start time and STAY with it !!.....
Moses......LM.....D-P........wmi799.......MMed.......SaxtonSportsPod (Arnie ? with a cig ha)....stretchrunner.....rooboybaz...........thanks boys BOL this week...............
UNI......maybe till Urban comes back ha....My reaction was that this wouldn't hurt them at all....even give them an 'edge'.....BTW Patterson said he agrees
* I took the 14 small....might add to it in-game either way.....Frogs stay close in a low scoring 1H...Bucks pull away 2H....??...................
LA_THE_KID......sorry didn't mean to...yep it's 6AM for them seems like....OVERReaction IMO....Army's big W over Liberty wtf?.................
the_dude911.......only thing with SMU play....is that Michigan is likely to keep their run going for awhile IMO....and that D a horrific match-up for the Ponies
* who gotta be kinda beat up off TCU (and NT)...with only ANOTHER likely beatdown to look forward to next vs Navy ( Mustang killer) ......
BTW........looking at that Ga St / Memphis game......
* I kinda liked Gst + the 28 or so.....looking for some post Navy hangover .....+ I kinda like that Ga St QB.....until he gets beat up.....
BUT....to avoid the potential late FRONT-door cover (Memphis has burned me before)......I noticed that Memphis (improving D but an offensive team )......ain't big on playing D in this spot....off a tough game/ L......and / or vs a non-conf team at home >> so I played the OVER instead
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
BTW........looking at that Ga St / Memphis game......
* I kinda liked Gst + the 28 or so.....looking for some post Navy hangover .....+ I kinda like that Ga St QB.....until he gets beat up.....
BUT....to avoid the potential late FRONT-door cover (Memphis has burned me before)......I noticed that Memphis (improving D but an offensive team )......ain't big on playing D in this spot....off a tough game/ L......and / or vs a non-conf team at home >> so I played the OVER instead
MAN.......lotta guts you got showing up here...........
* nothing wrong with just 'HOOSIER' ya know..........
The Tulsa game / total inability to control the LOS....was totally shocking to me.....and I have NO IDEA.....what's going on
They (might)....whip USC...escape with a W vs a beaten up TCU....somehow beat KST ha........OR lose all 3...........
>> gotta admit.....I'm a 'believe in Tom' guy...but looking back....the Cougs never ran the ball really well / controlled the LOS either...it was all on the QB to make plays > convert on 3rd.....(seems like).......Buckeyes were awesome (WITH ZEKE) ....Zeke leaves (Tom too) > they struggle.......................................
BOL this week................
* you hit your dog play again didn't you?.....missed ONE last year then quit ha.....> 'fraid I got too many this week......
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
MAN.......lotta guts you got showing up here...........
* nothing wrong with just 'HOOSIER' ya know..........
The Tulsa game / total inability to control the LOS....was totally shocking to me.....and I have NO IDEA.....what's going on
They (might)....whip USC...escape with a W vs a beaten up TCU....somehow beat KST ha........OR lose all 3...........
>> gotta admit.....I'm a 'believe in Tom' guy...but looking back....the Cougs never ran the ball really well / controlled the LOS either...it was all on the QB to make plays > convert on 3rd.....(seems like).......Buckeyes were awesome (WITH ZEKE) ....Zeke leaves (Tom too) > they struggle.......................................
BOL this week................
* you hit your dog play again didn't you?.....missed ONE last year then quit ha.....> 'fraid I got too many this week......
I have an observation...BA's thread has really stepped up its game this year IMO. BA...your stuff is amazing as always but the other guys contributing this season are really bringing alot to the table as well. Guys keep up the good work this season...this thread is a must read every week. Good luck this week , Gentlemen.
I have an observation...BA's thread has really stepped up its game this year IMO. BA...your stuff is amazing as always but the other guys contributing this season are really bringing alot to the table as well. Guys keep up the good work this season...this thread is a must read every week. Good luck this week , Gentlemen.
I have an observation...BA's thread has really stepped up its game this year IMO. BA...your stuff is amazing as always but the other guys contributing this season are really bringing alot to the table as well. Guys keep up the good work this season...this thread is a must read every week. Good luck this week , Gentlemen.
too kind as always buddy thanks .................
hopefully I can catch up in the next few weeks/ hang out a bit > talk match-ups etc
* once conf play starts maybe focus on say 10-15 games or less.....problem would be getting everybody UP Sunday morning to catch the 4:00-6:00 openers....AND generating interest on NEXT week's stuff.....as it's a waste of time to discuss games when the best # is long gone....except for the chumps of course......
eg. say 9:00a....I start Wazzu at USC talk.....line we're looking for....series history...injuries...match-up stuff...totals / prop bets....etc
$$ WHEN to get the line we want (ignored by 98% here) is huge.....
The impediment to action advances action - what stands in the way becomes the way.
I have an observation...BA's thread has really stepped up its game this year IMO. BA...your stuff is amazing as always but the other guys contributing this season are really bringing alot to the table as well. Guys keep up the good work this season...this thread is a must read every week. Good luck this week , Gentlemen.
too kind as always buddy thanks .................
hopefully I can catch up in the next few weeks/ hang out a bit > talk match-ups etc
* once conf play starts maybe focus on say 10-15 games or less.....problem would be getting everybody UP Sunday morning to catch the 4:00-6:00 openers....AND generating interest on NEXT week's stuff.....as it's a waste of time to discuss games when the best # is long gone....except for the chumps of course......
eg. say 9:00a....I start Wazzu at USC talk.....line we're looking for....series history...injuries...match-up stuff...totals / prop bets....etc
$$ WHEN to get the line we want (ignored by 98% here) is huge.....
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