Week 1 Ponderings

Week 0 gives us the hors d'oeuvres. Next week is the smorgasbord with a ton of great matchups! Let's get this party started!

Thursday, Aug. 28th

Boise St. (-6, down from -10) at USF - In Bill Connelly's final returning production rankings these two, along with Kennesaw St. and Delaware, are the only Group of Five teams in his top 25! One notable absence though is Bronco RB Ashton Jeanty, now with the Raiders, but ironically the Broncos' biggest strength could once again be their run game, with Sire Gaines running behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. The Bulls will counter with 6' 3" dual threat QB Byrum Brown, who missed most of last season. Teams from the northwest don't normally fare too well in the heat and humidity of the south, which may explain the line drop, but USF has just four wins over teams with a winning record since 2017 (HC Alex Golesh is just 1-8). 

RUTGERS (-14, up from -10') vs. Ohio - The Knights bring just about everybody back from last year and could roll here. I have no idea what to expect from the Bobcats with just ten starters back and a first time head coach. 

NC STATE (11') vs. East Carolina - Spottie and I discussed this game on his thread, and while the Wolfpack are just 4-12-1 as chalk over the last three years, Dave Doeren is 10- 0 SU and 6-1 ATS at home in season openers in his career. And after a bowl loss to these same Pirates cost him his 12th winning season in 15 years as a head coach, you can bet he has this one circled on his calendar. Throw in the fact that an ECU player instigated a brawl at the end of that bowl game and you can figure the 'Pack, with a big experience advantage, will bring their "A" game here. For me it's NC State or nobody in this one.

Nebraska (-6') vs. Cincinnati - This one will be played at Arrowhead Stadium in KC. Both head coaches, the Cornhuskers' Matt Rhule and the Bearcats' Scott Satterfield, enter their third year and expectations are high for both teams. Rhule in particular has had great success in his third year of coaching a team (see Baylor and Temple).

WISCONSIN (-17' up from -15') vs. Miami-OH - Like Rutgers, the Gophers return a lot of experience and should roll here over a Redhawks team with 11 NEW STARTERS ON OFFENSE! Yikes! Chuck Martin is a good coach but he'll have to pull a rabbit out of his hat in this game and this season.

Good Luck Boise..going to Fully enjoy your informative threads....how bout your insights into tomorrow's games... this year...you're invaluable to this forum 

Scroll down. I've already done a Week 0 thread. There's nothing there I would put my money on though. But I'm going to be watching and hopefully learning. I'll be curious to see if one of the worst Power Four teams (Stanford) should be an underdog on the road against a middling Group of Five team (Hawaii). I see a lot guys on the forum like the Rainbow Warriors, but I'm not sure they should be favored. Anyways, thanks for the kind words. I'll post Friday's key matchups and thoughts tomorrow.

Friday, Aug. 29th

WESTERN MICHIGAN (-19', up from -17') vs. Western Michigan - This is the third Big Ten vs MAC clash on the docket and, like the other two, bettors are hammering the Big Ten entry driving the price up, and with good reason. Sparty has won 13 straight meetings between the two teams, and WMU has lost nine straight to the BIG. Once again there's a HUGE experience edge for the favorite, and I believe ultimately HC Jonathan Smith is gonna turn this team around much like he did at Oregon St.

Auburn (-2', up from -1') at BAYLOR - The Tigers were far better than last season's 2-6 SEC record would indicate. They actually ranked fourth in the conference at plus 62.3 yards per contest, so obviously turnovers were the problem. The hope is that a brand new QB room, led by Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold, will address the issue. Meanwhile, the Bears come in hot, off a six game Big 12 winning streak to close out last season, and even though they got dumped by LSU in the bowl game, 44-31, they won the yardage battle by nearly a hundred yards. This team is legit and has as good a chance as any to capture the Big 12 title. Kinda like the dog here, as Auburn is unaccustomed to being road chalk, and if the line gets to three I might snap the rubber band.

Georgia Tech (-4, up from -3') at COLORADO - The Yellow Jackets probably have their best team yet under HC Brent Key, led by QB Haynes King and RB Jamal Haynes, but this is their first trip west of the Mississippi since 2013, and they'll be playing in unaccustomed to altitude. Plus, the Rambling Wreck has a poor history as chalk, going 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 tries, including 1-5 on the road. The Bison have lost a lot of last year's 9-4 team, but I don't see a drop off at QB where former Liberty star Kaidon Salter replaces Shedeur Sanders, and even with the loss of Travis Hunter I believe in Coach Prime. He's a proven winner that's turned this team around and he's 4-0 ATS as a home dog! The wrong team may be favored here.

Saturday, Aug. 30 - early games

OHIO ST. (-2', down from -3) vs. Texas - Game of the day! Heisman favorite Arch Manning takes the reins behind center for the Longhorns, and would seem to give them a significant edge over highly touted but inexperienced Julian Sayin of the Buckeyes. Tough call here.  Ryan Day is 36-3 SU at home, and Texas has won 11 straight true road games. I don't count revenge as much of a factor for the 'Horns playoff loss a year ago with so many new faces on both sides. Pick your poison in this one.

PURDUE (-17', up from -16') vs. Ball St. - And yet another Big Ten vs MAC matchup. Barry Odom was a solid hire for the Boilermakers and they should win this, but this is some pretty heavy chalk for a team that went 1-11 a year ago.

Tennessee (-13', down from -16') vs Syracuse -Neutral site game in Atlanta. 'Cuse has won four straight openers (3-0-1 ATS) but this is tall order here, even considering the Vols unexpectedly lost QB Nico Iamaleava to the portal at the end of spring. Replacement Joey Aguilar was a two year starter at App St. and there shouldn't be much of a drop off, if any. 

Mississippi St. (-11', down from 13') at SOUTHERN MISS - No where to go but up for these two teams. Bulldogs have won six straight in this series, but this is a whole different Southern Miss team. Charles Huff takes over as head coach after leading Marshall to the Sun Belt title a year ago and it seems like he brought the whole Marshall team with him! They could be worth a look here. 

TULANE (-6', down from -7) vs. Northwestern - This is the first of three Power Four opponents for the Green Wave as they chase the Group of Five playoff berth. I'm a big believer in HC Jon Sumrall, but the Wildcats won't be an easy out with SMU transfer Preston Stone taking over at QB...IF he's the same player he was in 2023.

KENTUCKY (-7' down from -10') vs. Toledo - If the Rockets win this they could be in the catbird's seat for a playoff berth, but the Wildcats have won 17 straight vs. MAC teams, going 13-4 ATS. If the line keeps dropping I might bite.

Saturday afternoon games

INDIANA (-22', up from -21') vs. Old Dominion - The Hoosiers were money in the bank a season ago, led by FBS coach of the year Curt Cignetti, and are looking to build on a year where they went 11-2 SU and 8-4 ATS, with a playoff appearance. They should handle ODU, but the Monarchs have covered eight of their last ten vs. Power Four foes, including a narrow 23-19 loss at South Carolina in last year's opener as a 20' point dog.

Alabama (-13', up from -9') at FLORIDA ST. - I like the Crimson Tide to rebound from their worst season in 17 years (9-4). In fact, I think they'll win the SEC this season in Kalen Deboer's second season with the team. This is their first trip to Tallahassee, where they'll face a Seminoles team off their worst season since 1974! I expect a big bounce back year for the 'Noles with an infusion transfers and new coaches, but beating Alabama will be a tall order.

IOWA ST. (no line as yet) vs. South Dakota - I don't dabble in FBS/FCS matchups, but I may make an exception here. The Cyclones are off a huge Farmageddon win across the pond, in which they were outgained by 70 yards, and they have arch rival Iowa on deck. The 'Clones are just 3-10 ATS vs FCS teams, and the Coyotes are legit. They went 11-3 a year ago and are on a 8-3 ATS run vs FBS teams. This game has letdown written all over it. I'll be watching the line on this one.

Saturday evening games

CLEMSON (-4, up from -3') vs. Lsu - Initial thought was this is too many points, but Clemson has the most returning production of any team in the country, according to Bill Connelly, with 17 returning starters. The Bayou Bengals aren't exactly inexperienced, ranking 23rd with 15 returning starters, but they lost four offensive linemen to the NFL and lost all four starting defensive linemen! Teams like LSU just reload, but it'll probably take a game or two before both lines come together, giving Clemmie a potentially big advantage in the trenches. Plus, LSU has lost their last five season openers, the last three under Brian Kelly, although this is the first time they come in as the underdog. If this game were later in the season I'd be looking hard at LSU, but in Week One the Tiger Paw seems like the right side.

FRESNO ST. (-1', down from -2') vs Georgia Southern-The Bulldogs were dominated on both sides of the ball at Kansas, and now we'll see if there's any advantage to having a game under their belt vs. an Eagles team that's playing their season opener. No doubt Fresno HC Matt Entz will make adjustments, and it's a long coast to coast road trip for Ga. Southern, but they're 3-0 ATS in openers under HC Clay Helton.

ARIZONA (-13', up from -10') vs. Hawaii - Check the status of Hawaii QB Micah Alejado for this game. He took a beating in the win over Stanford and was limping badly at the games conclusion. The Wildcats rank 15th in returning production with 17 returning starters, and should improve on last season's 4-8 record in HC Brent Brennan's second year with the team.

OREGON ST. (-3, up from -1') vs.  California -HC Justin Wilcox is on the hot seat, but his Golden Bears are 6-0 ATS as a non conference road pup. The Beavs look to avenge last season's 44-7 beatdown in Berkeley, but it kind of feels like the wrong team is favored in this one.

Utah (-6', up from -3') at UCLA - Utes QB Cam Rising took a medical retirement, ending the "will he or won't he play" drama. New Mexico transfer Devon Dampier replaces him, as long time coach Kyle Whittingham tries to rebound from last season's 5-7 disappointment. I see a bounceback year for them, but it's worth noting they're just 5-11-1 ATS as road chalk over the last four years. The Bruins scored a coup luring QB Nico Iamaleava away from Tennessee this past spring and, despite being 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two, are a live dog here.

I like your threads, all the best for this season 

Sunday games

South Carolina (-7', down from -9') vs. Virginia Tech - Hard to get a feel for this one, being played in Atlanta. The Hokies should be better than last year, the Gamecocks not quite as good. One thing for certain; QB LaNorris Sellers will be the best player on the field and is worth the price of admission.

Notre Dame (-2') at MIAMI FL - Another day, another marquis matchup. Catholics vs. Convicts. Ahhh the good ole days revisited. The Irish have the better defense and special teams, at least on paper, but the one huge edge the 'Canes would appear to have at the start of the season is at QB. Carson Beck takes over for #1 NFL draft choice Cam Ward and I don't see a dropoff. Notre Dame counters with five star freshman CJ Carr, who is talented but inexperienced. Over the course of the season he could be a rock star, but in Game One, in an extremely hostile environment, his inexperience could be a factor.

Monday game

Tcu (-3', flipped from +1') at NORTH CAROLINA - For what it's worth the Frogs have won 11 straight road openers (9-2 ATS), but this game is all about Bill Belichick taking his NFL coaching talent to the college level at North Carolina. Who knows what to expect from the Tar Heels in this game or this season, but it should be entertaining!

@WahooS

 Hey Wahoo! Good to see you back brother! BOL this season. 

Agree with Wahoo; solid write up's. Appreciate the work, and best of luck this season! 

@Aldan52

Thanks 

@Teaser78

 My pleasure. 

Baylor moneyline, G. Tech -4 and South Dakota + the points. 

Nice writeup! 

Except Wisconsin are Badgers, not Gophers. (nit picking)

Let's talk Minny's Gophers that are -17.5 vs Buffalo. Thursday night game.  Buffalo up and coming and I know a few who grabbed Buffs early at +18.5. Not so sure myself, hearing Gophers like new qb Lindsey and they have 73% of their pretty good defense returning. The Buffs were throttled 38-0 at Missouri last yr, could be another pasting coming. Looking at Buff TT under in this one.

SHSU at UNLV -10.5; Had Idaho State +26.5 yesterday and loved this game as they almost pulled off an upset. Was getting a little worried as the line jumped to +30.5 Friday. Figured right that UNLV defense would be suspect game 1. Yet that Rebel D played hard, fast, physical ball (vs Idaho St). They got caught out of position too many times. If they can ironout the continuity on D the Bearkats are in for another long night.

And I like Purdue even with all those points. Not last yrs Boilermakers.

@UNIMAN

I was actually looking at the Minnesota-Buffalo game and had the Gophers on my brain when I did the Wisky write up. Guess I need a proof reader! Also UNLV is on the road this week. They and Sam Houston are playing this one at the Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, about 80 miles from Huntsville, while the Bearkats' Bowers Stadium is under renovation. Sammy is basically playing 12 road games this year. BOL on your plays. I'm primarily a dog player, but I have no interest whatsoever in backing the MAC vs the Big Ten. If I was gonna play one of those matchups it would probably be Michigan St. for the reasons I mentioned. Thanks for chiming in.

@Greedybastard

 BOL 

Im not a chalk guy

I’m scared to death laying so many points.   The investment Purdue made I hope shows out right away in week 1.   To me this is chess that’s why I seek bottom teams.  A Purdue miss this week will only benefit me going forward.  That’s why I am rude I g the Locomotive and laying -16.5 

1 big turnover (gift) and that big line becomes -9.5 

Keep at it Boise.  

@Boisestateand8

 Yeah, all those Big10 teams at -17 vs a MAC team looks like a broken record wk 1. 

Yeah, had that backwards, UNLV vs SHSU more like it. 

@spottie2935

@UNIMAN

@Boisestateand8

 Arizona now -16.5 over Hawaii....

@lmb4321

 Yeah, I saw that. Sounds like Alejado might be out. Too bad if that's the case. The kid really balled out against Stanford.

Great post

Always great to see your posts.