USF vs N Texas Breakdown

South Florida Bulls (Road Dog +1.5):

• 6.6 yards/play offense (ELITE, ranked 26th) vs 4.5 yards/play defense
• 36.2 PPG (ranked 34th - high scoring!)
• 4-1 overall, 4-1 ATS (covering consistently)
• 3-2 O/U (games go over more than under)
• 1-1 on the road
• QB throwing well: 7.9 yards/attempt, 11 TDs to 4 INTs
• Strong 3rd quarter team (11.6 PPG in 3rd, ranked 3rd!)

• North Texas Mean Green (Home Favorite -1.5):

  • 6.4 yards/play offense (also excellent, ranked 42nd) vs 5.3 yards/play defense
  • 44.8 PPG (ranked 10th - EXPLOSIVE!)
  • 5-0 overall, 4-1 ATS
  • 3-2 O/U
  • 3-0 at home
  • QB on fire: 7.9 yards/attempt, 11 TD's to ZERO INT's (perfect!)
  • Monster 1st and 2nd quarters (11.0 and 14.6 PPG - ranked 10th and 12th)
  1. This is basically a PICK'EM - Line is only 1.5 points, market sees them as dead even
  2. Both teams are ELITE offensively - 6.6 and 6.4 yards/play are outstanding
  3. Both defenses are mediocre - Neither stops anyone well
  4. North Texas is UNDEFEATED at 5-0 and at home (3-0)
  5. Total is 66.5-67 - Market expects a SHOOTOUT (and they're probably right!)
  6. North Texas starts FAST (25.6 PPG in first half), USF strong in 3rd quarter
  7. North Texas QB has thrown ZERO interceptions - taking care of the ball

  Raw talent: Pretty even, maybe UNT slightly better (44.8 vs 36.2 PPG, undefeated) Home field: +3.5 for North Texas My line: North Texas -3 to -3.5

  Market has UNT -1.5 - That's 1.5-2 points OFF from my number!

  ?? VALUE PLAY: North Texas -1.5 ??

  Here's why this is a strong play:

  1. You're getting UNT at essentially a pick'em when they should be -3
  2. 5-0 undefeated team at home - they're rolling
  3. Perfect QB play (11 TDs, 0 INTs) - elite ball security
  4. Home field not fully priced in - normally worth 3-3.5 points
  5. They score in bunches early - can build leads and control tempo
  6. Both 4-1 ATS but UNT is undefeated overall - higher quality wins

  My confidence level: STRONG

  The only concern is USF's offense is legit too (6.6 yards/play), so this could be a shootout where late turnovers decide it. But getting an undefeated home team at -1.5 when they should be -3+ is value.

  Expected Value: You're getting roughly +2 points of value here.

  Play: North Texas -1.5 at -125 (or better)

  Also, that Over 66.5 looks tempting too - both offenses are elite, both defenses struggle. Could easily see 38-34 type game.

@burgaweddie22

 Good analysis ??. 

Let's get it!

Nice analysis 

GL

Who has played the tougher schedule?

Playing cupcakes can lead to false numbers.

Yeah I would play S Florida if I was going to play. SOS is quite a bit stronger and I think SFlorida could run all over N Tx but I’m playing the Washington/Rutger game and I don’t like the vibe I get from the SFlorida game. Line looks to easy. I would have thought SFlorida would be 3.5-4.5 line something’s off I feel.

@PayMeHardRock

 You would think south fl played a tougher schedule?

Degenbeter

 No   you have a 5-0 team at home they should be favored, USF  is a good team but I do not feel they should have been favored as a opening line, and do not forget this line already moved frpm N Texas -2 to USF -1, and now has went back to N Texas being favored, Hard rock has NT -1.5  BETNOW has N Texas -2.5 -115  I might take USF at +3   I like the over , both teams can score, I think USF a better defense , but there has been a lot of movement on this game this week

@burgaweddie22

 Nice analysis I jumped on a small parlay 

NTexas -1.5 /O 66.5

@slkrick

 They clearly have played a tougher Schedule than North Texas. Tonight that is not going to matter because North Texas is much better than USF. Offensively USF cannot keep up and I know people will say come on Ed USF defense. They have not seen an offense like they will tonight on a dry field

USF 2da B@nk +2.5

USF here

HRB has USF +2.5. I'm on the Bulls, battle tested.

@PayMeHardRock

 North Texas has played the Cupcakes, USF 3 ranked teams. 4 turnovers thus far in the first quarter. 2 fumbles and one interception USF 1 Interception North Texas. What a sloppy, sloppy game.