Tech plays week 1

Use a database,...either killersports or gimmethedog.

Default for week 0 and 1 is to play UNDERs.

  a)  Play away FBS dogs of <=14 points in game 1 (and UNDER) whose present FBS opponent won less than 6 games the prior season as long as our away dog won less than 7 games the prior season.....33-22 ATS, 14-38 o/u........ON Coastal Carolina, UTEP, California and UNDER.

  b)  Did research at one time on college football head coaches in their first game...those who were away favorites were terrible ATS.  I cannot input that into a database.....VERSUS App State, Temple

  c)  Play on a week 1 away dog of less than or equal to 14 points game 1 who will be more than a 6 point underdog their next game....43-21-2 ATS, 32-34 straight up, 20-41-1 o/u...average line +6.88/52.34, average score 23.2-25.....ON Toledo

  d)  Week 1 away dogs of less than or equal to 14 points that outrush yards their opponent have gone 107-25 ATS (+9.6)...the usual suspects are the service academies running the triple option....Rice this year hired a head coach whose team rushed for over 300 yards/game last season in FCS, running?......you guessed it, the triple option....ON Rice

Plays:

1)  Rice +11'

2)  Toledo +10

3)  Coastal Carolina +11'

4)  UTEP +6

5)  Cal +3

6)  Cal UNDER 51'

7)  UTEP UNDER 61

8)  Coastal Carolina UNDER 57'

9)  UMass +2'

10) Charlotte +4'

11) Kentucky UNDER 48'

I posted angle "C" incorrectly...here is the correct version.

  c)  Play on a week 1 away dog of less than or equal to 14 points game 1 whose present opponent will be more than a 6 point underdog their next game....43-21-2 ATS, 32-34 straight up, 20-41-1 o/u...average line +6.88/52.34, average score 23.2-25.....ON Toledo.....Kentucky will be a big dog their next game versus 21st ranked Ol' Miss

Query text for angle D...which moves to 70-18 ATS if we use just games between FBS opponents......RY > o:RY and AD and line <=14 and week=1 and division=FBS and o:division=FBS

Good luck Indigo.  

Always we go into the season with very high hopes.....

That is a current game parameter so naturally there are no query results for this week's games.

Good luck on your whopping slate of 11 games.  I'll probably pass on this week's NCAAFB games as I usually do, but I plan to watch and root for OHST vs. TEX.

@DogbiteWilliams

 I've actually instructed others on whether something is a current query, or not.

When putting forth a query that makes an assumption, in this case that Rice will outrush their opponent, one would theorize, for example, that there'd be an 80% chance of Rice  outrushing their opponent, which you would then multiply times the percent chance of that team covering.

.8 X .795 =.636 or 63.6% is still a high level covering scenario.

In all cases of using queries to mine historical likelihoods, we are making an assumption as well...that history will repeat itself, and of course if we find a query with 300 results have  covered at, say a 63% rate, we  often find out from difficult experience that it is wishful thinking that that 63% cover rate continues.

@Indigo999

Good explanation.

Plays:

1)  Rice +11'.............................................W.....as postulated Rice outrushed their opponent and subsequently got the cover

2)  Toledo +10..........................................W

3)  Coastal Carolina +11'............................L

4)  UTEP +6..............................................L

5)  Cal +3

6)  Cal UNDER 51'

7)  UTEP UNDER 61....................................W

8)  Coastal Carolina UNDER 57'....................W

9)  UMass +2'............................................L

10) Charlotte +4'.......................................L

11) Kentucky UNDER 48'.............................W

Plays:

1)  Rice +11'.............................................W.....as postulated Rice outrushed their opponent and subsequently got the cover

2)  Toledo +10..........................................W

3)  Coastal Carolina +11'............................L

4)  UTEP +6..............................................L

5)  Cal +3................................................W

6)  Cal UNDER 51'......................................W

7)  UTEP UNDER 61....................................W

8)  Coastal Carolina UNDER 57'....................W

9)  UMass +2'............................................L

10) Charlotte +4'.......................................L

11) Kentucky UNDER 48'.............................W

7-4....next week is looking sparse, 'til next time....

Nice way to kick off the season in high fashion.

Using vsin's stats from Fanduel....public underdogs >=50%, playing a FBS opponent

            Team                    % of bets                    % of handle           result 

1)  Northwestern  +5'                50%                                                3-23          L

2)  S. Miss +13'                         66%                        51%                 17-34         L

3)  VMI +42'                                                             66%                7-52           L

4)  Texas +1'                             54%                         52%                 7-14          L

5)  Toledo +10                           64%                        62%                 16-24        W

7)  SE MO State +14                  62%                                             24-42           L

8)  UTEP  +5'                            50%                                              16-28           L

9)  Abilene Chr. +5'                    54%                                                7-35           L

10) Georgia Southern  +1'          73%                                                14-42         L

11) Oregon State +2'                 54%                      73%                    15-34         L

THAT is pretty amazing!!

Yes… I got in on a few of those…gave some back yesterday… I was on Texas and bama as well…. Bama cost me 2-3 grand losing moneyline… and they were beat in every way you can get beat in a football game…. Florida st was most impressive team I saw yesterday… good to see them back… but it hurt my pocket….  Moving fwd… the past is the past.   

@Indigo999

The “dreaded public dog”.   Long term profitable fade like no other.  

AS

Nice hearing from you.......I knew that public dogs were a losing proposition, but now I'll be tracking it and using it as a basis of making plays, both in the NFL and the NCAA.

Using covers's KOC contest stats, you would've gone 7-2 ATS fading public NCAA fb dogs today (Saturday) and 10-1 ATS fading fanduel's stats.

As of now, the Lions, and Dolphins are big public underdogs, and possibly the Ravens, if they are an underdog, Falcons (really?!), Raiders, Texans and Giants are possibilities, using VSIN's fanduel stats.

Will wait until closer to game time,...however there's no way barring injury to a VIP player that the Dolphins and Lions switch to a lesser public dog.

Good fortune going forward....