Notre Dame vs Miami

Question

The site has been spotty today. I had spent so much time on write up for the VT game and server 505 error. I’ll try this one.

FIRST HALF Under 24.5. Bottom line: expect a good one, but more scoring after halftime than early. I’d lean Miami, but I’m staying away from the side.

A Clash of Rebuilt Powerhouses

Notre Dame enters as a 3-point favorite, but don’t sleep on the ‘Canes catching points at home in Hard Rock. Both teams are coming off strong 2024 campaigns—Miami 10-3 and Notre Dame 14-2 (CFP runner-up)—but with major roster turnover, this game hinges on how quickly new pieces click.

Tale of the Tape: 2024 Recaps

Miami started 9-0 before collapsing late, losing in OT to Georgia Tech and blowing a 21-point lead to Syracuse. They capped it with a 42-41 Pop-Tarts Bowl loss to Iowa State. Offense was electric (#1 nationally, 537 YPG), but the defense faltered in ACC play (31 PPG allowed). ATS: 7-6, better as dogs than favorites.

Notre Dame stumbled early (home loss to Northern Illinois) but then dominated—11 straight wins, outscoring foes 316-100 down the stretch. They beat Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State in the CFP before falling to Ohio State (34-23). Finished 14-2 and 12-4 ATS, showcasing balance and elite defense.

Offense: Miami’s Firepower vs ND’s Youth

Miami replaces Cam Ward with Georgia transfer Carson Beck (7,400+ yards, 52-18 TD/INT the last two years). Losing RB Damien Martinez hurts, but the backfield is deep with Mark Fletcher, Chris Johnson, and NDSU transfer CharMar Brown (1,181 yds, 15 TD). WR/TE turnover is steep—top four WRs and TE Arroyo are gone—but transfers CJ Daniels, Tony Johnson, Alex Bauman bring experience, and young WRs Joshua Moore/Malachi Toney could pop. The OL is one of the ACC’s best, boosted by TCU transfer center James Brockermeyer.

Notre Dame scored 36 PPG last year with QB Riley Leonard. Now, true freshman CJ Carr takes over. He’ll lean on RB stars Jeremiyah Love (1,125 yds, 17 TD, 6.9 YPC) and Jadarian Price (746 yds, 7 TD, 6.2 YPC). WRs are underrated: Jaden Greathouse, Malachi Fields, Will Pauling all productive. The OL is strong with Craig and Knapp, but losing guard Charles Jagusah is a concern.

Edge: Miami. Beck’s experience should provide stability, while Carr’s inexperience is a major wild card.

Defense: ND’s Wall vs Miami’s Overhaul

Notre Dame was elite in 2024 (15.5 PPG allowed, #4; 40 sacks, #14). They lose DTs Rylie Mills/Howard Cross but reload with Bryce Young, Jared Dawson, Boubacar Traore. LBs remain strong with Drayk Bowen, and the secondary, minus Xavier Watts, still boasts Christian Gray and Alabama transfer DeVonta Smith (0 TDs allowed in coverage last year).

Miami gave up 25 PPG (#68), but 31 in ACC play and 42 in their bowl. Enter new DC Corey Hetherman (ex-Minnesota). DL talent is deep—Rueben Bain returns, with youngsters Blount/Scott set to contribute. Rutgers transfer Mohamed Toure fills the LB gap, but depth is shaky. Secondary relies on transfers (Xavier Lucas, Jakobe Thomas, Zechariah Poyser) and returnee OJ Frederique.

Edge: Notre Dame. More proven and cohesive, while Miami is still gelling.

Special Teams & Intangibles

Miami lost All-American kicker Borregales; Texas transfer Bert Auburn must bounce back. ND adds steady UNC kicker Noah Burnette and keeps punter James Rendell.

Intangibles: Miami has home field and motivation to erase last year’s collapse. Notre Dame’s freshman QB makes this a tough road test.

This screams close. ND’s defense and run game keep them in control, but Miami’s experienced QB and home energy could tilt it.

Best Play: 1H Under 24.5 — expect a slower start before fireworks late. Miami +3 is tempting with Beck’s edge over Carr, but I’m sticking with the first half total.

DrGame · Accepted Answer

The site has been spotty today. I had spent so much time on write up for the VT game and server 505 error. I’ll try this one.

FIRST HALF Under 24.5. Bottom line: expect a good one, but more scoring after halftime than early. I’d lean Miami, but I’m staying away from the side.

A Clash of Rebuilt Powerhouses

Notre Dame enters as a 3-point favorite, but don’t sleep on the ‘Canes catching points at home in Hard Rock. Both teams are coming off strong 2024 campaigns—Miami 10-3 and Notre Dame 14-2 (CFP runner-up)—but with major roster turnover, this game hinges on how quickly new pieces click.

Tale of the Tape: 2024 Recaps

Miami started 9-0 before collapsing late, losing in OT to Georgia Tech and blowing a 21-point lead to Syracuse. They capped it with a 42-41 Pop-Tarts Bowl loss to Iowa State. Offense was electric (#1 nationally, 537 YPG), but the defense faltered in ACC play (31 PPG allowed). ATS: 7-6, better as dogs than favorites.

Notre Dame stumbled early (home loss to Northern Illinois) but then dominated—11 straight wins, outscoring foes 316-100 down the stretch. They beat Indiana, Georgia, and Penn State in the CFP before falling to Ohio State (34-23). Finished 14-2 and 12-4 ATS, showcasing balance and elite defense.

Offense: Miami’s Firepower vs ND’s Youth

Miami replaces Cam Ward with Georgia transfer Carson Beck (7,400+ yards, 52-18 TD/INT the last two years). Losing RB Damien Martinez hurts, but the backfield is deep with Mark Fletcher, Chris Johnson, and NDSU transfer CharMar Brown (1,181 yds, 15 TD). WR/TE turnover is steep—top four WRs and TE Arroyo are gone—but transfers CJ Daniels, Tony Johnson, Alex Bauman bring experience, and young WRs Joshua Moore/Malachi Toney could pop. The OL is one of the ACC’s best, boosted by TCU transfer center James Brockermeyer.

Notre Dame scored 36 PPG last year with QB Riley Leonard. Now, true freshman CJ Carr takes over. He’ll lean on RB stars Jeremiyah Love (1,125 yds, 17 TD, 6.9 YPC) and Jadarian Price (746 yds, 7 TD, 6.2 YPC). WRs are underrated: Jaden Greathouse, Malachi Fields, Will Pauling all productive. The OL is strong with Craig and Knapp, but losing guard Charles Jagusah is a concern.

Edge: Miami. Beck’s experience should provide stability, while Carr’s inexperience is a major wild card.

Defense: ND’s Wall vs Miami’s Overhaul

Notre Dame was elite in 2024 (15.5 PPG allowed, #4; 40 sacks, #14). They lose DTs Rylie Mills/Howard Cross but reload with Bryce Young, Jared Dawson, Boubacar Traore. LBs remain strong with Drayk Bowen, and the secondary, minus Xavier Watts, still boasts Christian Gray and Alabama transfer DeVonta Smith (0 TDs allowed in coverage last year).

Miami gave up 25 PPG (#68), but 31 in ACC play and 42 in their bowl. Enter new DC Corey Hetherman (ex-Minnesota). DL talent is deep—Rueben Bain returns, with youngsters Blount/Scott set to contribute. Rutgers transfer Mohamed Toure fills the LB gap, but depth is shaky. Secondary relies on transfers (Xavier Lucas, Jakobe Thomas, Zechariah Poyser) and returnee OJ Frederique.

Edge: Notre Dame. More proven and cohesive, while Miami is still gelling.

Special Teams & Intangibles

Miami lost All-American kicker Borregales; Texas transfer Bert Auburn must bounce back. ND adds steady UNC kicker Noah Burnette and keeps punter James Rendell.

Intangibles: Miami has home field and motivation to erase last year’s collapse. Notre Dame’s freshman QB makes this a tough road test.

This screams close. ND’s defense and run game keep them in control, but Miami’s experienced QB and home energy could tilt it.

Best Play: 1H Under 24.5 — expect a slower start before fireworks late. Miami +3 is tempting with Beck’s edge over Carr, but I’m sticking with the first half total.