Gonna roll with USC here....First off - we really like Utah and almost never ever pick against them.....just so scrappy and well coached - excellent special teams.....But our analysis shows despite all that a 60% chance USC wins the game so we had to bite.
1. Utah is off 4 draining games....win in the big house - then blow big lead lose to Wash St by 1....Then watch UCLA miss 2 GW FG to escape with 2 pt win....Then win a double ot thriller at oregon st.....They are full marks for winning - just saying they are human and doubt this will be their 100% game
2. When you look deeper at those utah games - were outgained by michigan less than 300Y....outgained by Wash St blew 21 pt lead.....outgained again by UCLA ....then outgained yet again at oregon st only 315y offense including OT.
3. Utah has shown vulnerability to the pass - USC QB 18 TD 1 int and a good run game and improving OL......Note that their starting PK still prob not gonna play that is an issue.
4. USC has not done much wrong this yr - ya got pounded at BC in a terrible spot - but beat Stanford and Az...had a 9 pt lead with the ball and less than 5 minutes left in Az St territory and somehow not only could not get a frontdoor cover - but lost the game on a bomb followed by a hail mary.
5. Better spot for usc - coming off feel good win vs colorado QB 7 TD passes and looking ahead have to like their chances running the rest of pac12 slate if they escape this wk - wash st cal then showdown at ucla which looks more winnable than we would have thought.
6. icing on cake - FWIW may mean squat - but USC has beat them last 3Y SU.
GL mega
0
next play
USC pk
mega fair line USC 4
Sagarin Utah 2
Gonna roll with USC here....First off - we really like Utah and almost never ever pick against them.....just so scrappy and well coached - excellent special teams.....But our analysis shows despite all that a 60% chance USC wins the game so we had to bite.
1. Utah is off 4 draining games....win in the big house - then blow big lead lose to Wash St by 1....Then watch UCLA miss 2 GW FG to escape with 2 pt win....Then win a double ot thriller at oregon st.....They are full marks for winning - just saying they are human and doubt this will be their 100% game
2. When you look deeper at those utah games - were outgained by michigan less than 300Y....outgained by Wash St blew 21 pt lead.....outgained again by UCLA ....then outgained yet again at oregon st only 315y offense including OT.
3. Utah has shown vulnerability to the pass - USC QB 18 TD 1 int and a good run game and improving OL......Note that their starting PK still prob not gonna play that is an issue.
4. USC has not done much wrong this yr - ya got pounded at BC in a terrible spot - but beat Stanford and Az...had a 9 pt lead with the ball and less than 5 minutes left in Az St territory and somehow not only could not get a frontdoor cover - but lost the game on a bomb followed by a hail mary.
5. Better spot for usc - coming off feel good win vs colorado QB 7 TD passes and looking ahead have to like their chances running the rest of pac12 slate if they escape this wk - wash st cal then showdown at ucla which looks more winnable than we would have thought.
6. icing on cake - FWIW may mean squat - but USC has beat them last 3Y SU.
Tempted to roll with the dog here but just cannot trust a D ranked 90th and 110th in pass efficiency D - against #1 red zone offense and all world qb Hundley.....Col given up 59 36 56 L3G...UCLA very sloppy and D nowhere near what we thought it would be so hard to trust them esp laying 2 TD - total looks about right.
summary
no leanage
0
UCLA 14 Colorado (68)
mega line - 10
sagarin - 17
Tempted to roll with the dog here but just cannot trust a D ranked 90th and 110th in pass efficiency D - against #1 red zone offense and all world qb Hundley.....Col given up 59 36 56 L3G...UCLA very sloppy and D nowhere near what we thought it would be so hard to trust them esp laying 2 TD - total looks about right.
Line looks about right - Stanford D still playing lights out - gave up more than 20 for the first time all yr - and that was just barely vs a very hot Az St team....Just think it is pretty risky laying DD against a decent conf opponent - Would probably have consider oregon st even at +10 if they won vs utah last wk - just not sure if they cave after that tough 2OT loss and now face pretty much the toughest physical test there is.
summary
no leanage
0
Stanford 13 Oregon St (41.5)
mega line 13
sagarin 12
Line looks about right - Stanford D still playing lights out - gave up more than 20 for the first time all yr - and that was just barely vs a very hot Az St team....Just think it is pretty risky laying DD against a decent conf opponent - Would probably have consider oregon st even at +10 if they won vs utah last wk - just not sure if they cave after that tough 2OT loss and now face pretty much the toughest physical test there is.
Strong lean to the road fav here - They have been excellent this yr even with star QB out - backup has lit it up - D doing just enough - yes a miracle win vs USC - but they played well that entire game and have now beat USC and Stanford back to back - that is our only concern - 2 big big wins other concern is Wash D maybe touch better but definitely better getting turnovers - ranked #2 - QB not flashy but only 1 int so far - Kelly supposed to start again for Az St (?) has us perplexed - move makes sense if healthy - but what does that do to the chemistry if anything??.....Az St HC 9-4 SU away quietly doing a nice job.....Wash only wins vs not so stellar group of hawaii e wash illinois ga st and cal.....Cant make it a full unit for reasons discussed above but putting it in strong lean category for those who like more action
summary
side - strong lean arizona st -3
total - no leanage
0
Arizona St 3 Wash (61)
mega line 3
sagarin 3/3.5
Strong lean to the road fav here - They have been excellent this yr even with star QB out - backup has lit it up - D doing just enough - yes a miracle win vs USC - but they played well that entire game and have now beat USC and Stanford back to back - that is our only concern - 2 big big wins other concern is Wash D maybe touch better but definitely better getting turnovers - ranked #2 - QB not flashy but only 1 int so far - Kelly supposed to start again for Az St (?) has us perplexed - move makes sense if healthy - but what does that do to the chemistry if anything??.....Az St HC 9-4 SU away quietly doing a nice job.....Wash only wins vs not so stellar group of hawaii e wash illinois ga st and cal.....Cant make it a full unit for reasons discussed above but putting it in strong lean category for those who like more action
Seems to be some value for those liking Arizona - We just have a bad record when it comes to wash st - will have to cede to the pac12 guys on here - on the surface looks like arizona to us - but but but - arizona has had squeeker city vs utsa and cal....beat oregon.....Wash St QB on a record setting pace....Would have liked to have seen 7+ on this one might have looked at wash st just cant do - Have not watched much of either team this yr either so no eyeball test to go by.
summary
no leanage
0
Arizona 2.5 Wash St (73)
mega line 5
sagarin 8
Seems to be some value for those liking Arizona - We just have a bad record when it comes to wash st - will have to cede to the pac12 guys on here - on the surface looks like arizona to us - but but but - arizona has had squeeker city vs utsa and cal....beat oregon.....Wash St QB on a record setting pace....Would have liked to have seen 7+ on this one might have looked at wash st just cant do - Have not watched much of either team this yr either so no eyeball test to go by.
Gonna roll with USC here....First off - we really like Utah and almost never ever pick against them.....just so scrappy and well coached - excellent special teams.....But our analysis shows despite all that a 60% chance USC wins the game so we had to bite.
1. Utah is off 4 draining games....win in the big house - then blow big lead lose to Wash St by 1....Then watch UCLA miss 2 GW FG to escape with 2 pt win....Then win a double ot thriller at oregon st.....They are full marks for winning - just saying they are human and doubt this will be their 100% game
2. When you look deeper at those utah games - were outgained by michigan less than 300Y....outgained by Wash St blew 21 pt lead.....outgained again by UCLA ....then outgained yet again at oregon st only 315y offense including OT.
3. Utah has shown vulnerability to the pass - USC QB 18 TD 1 int and a good run game and improving OL......Note that their starting PK still prob not gonna play that is an issue.
4. USC has not done much wrong this yr - ya got pounded at BC in a terrible spot - but beat Stanford and Az...had a 9 pt lead with the ball and less than 5 minutes left in Az St territory and somehow not only could not get a frontdoor cover - but lost the game on a bomb followed by a hail mary.
5. Better spot for usc - coming off feel good win vs colorado QB 7 TD passes and looking ahead have to like their chances running the rest of pac12 slate if they escape this wk - wash st cal then showdown at ucla which looks more winnable than we would have thought.
6. icing on cake - FWIW may mean squat - but USC has beat them last 3Y SU.
GL mega
0
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
THIS
next play
USC pk
mega fair line USC 4
Sagarin Utah 2
Gonna roll with USC here....First off - we really like Utah and almost never ever pick against them.....just so scrappy and well coached - excellent special teams.....But our analysis shows despite all that a 60% chance USC wins the game so we had to bite.
1. Utah is off 4 draining games....win in the big house - then blow big lead lose to Wash St by 1....Then watch UCLA miss 2 GW FG to escape with 2 pt win....Then win a double ot thriller at oregon st.....They are full marks for winning - just saying they are human and doubt this will be their 100% game
2. When you look deeper at those utah games - were outgained by michigan less than 300Y....outgained by Wash St blew 21 pt lead.....outgained again by UCLA ....then outgained yet again at oregon st only 315y offense including OT.
3. Utah has shown vulnerability to the pass - USC QB 18 TD 1 int and a good run game and improving OL......Note that their starting PK still prob not gonna play that is an issue.
4. USC has not done much wrong this yr - ya got pounded at BC in a terrible spot - but beat Stanford and Az...had a 9 pt lead with the ball and less than 5 minutes left in Az St territory and somehow not only could not get a frontdoor cover - but lost the game on a bomb followed by a hail mary.
5. Better spot for usc - coming off feel good win vs colorado QB 7 TD passes and looking ahead have to like their chances running the rest of pac12 slate if they escape this wk - wash st cal then showdown at ucla which looks more winnable than we would have thought.
6. icing on cake - FWIW may mean squat - but USC has beat them last 3Y SU.
total - looking for hybrid play on total - Cuse TT under (waiting for 17) this will be a play 100% if we get that number.
FYI - Cuse's top 2 wr coming back this game...both speed guys. Broyld & Estime. I'd love to see them get more than 17, just not sure how the OL will match up vs Clemson DL. Will be curious to see if Long is able to matriculate under pressure!
0
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Clemson 14.5 Cuse (47.5)
mega fair line 15
sagarin 17
summary
side - no leanage
total - looking for hybrid play on total - Cuse TT under (waiting for 17) this will be a play 100% if we get that number.
FYI - Cuse's top 2 wr coming back this game...both speed guys. Broyld & Estime. I'd love to see them get more than 17, just not sure how the OL will match up vs Clemson DL. Will be curious to see if Long is able to matriculate under pressure!
Arizona St 3 Wash (61)mega line 3sagarin 3/3.5Strong lean to the road fav here - They have been excellent this yr even with star QB out - backup has lit it up - D doing just enough - yes a miracle win vs USC - but they played well that entire game and have now beat USC and Stanford back to back - that is our only concern - 2 big big wins other concern is Wash D maybe touch better but definitely better getting turnovers - ranked #2 - QB not flashy but only 1 int so far - Kelly supposed to start again for Az St (?) has us perplexed - move makes sense if healthy - but what does that do to the chemistry if anything??.....Az St HC 9-4 SU away quietly doing a nice job.....Wash only wins vs not so stellar group of hawaii e wash illinois ga st and cal.....Cant make it a full unit for reasons discussed above but putting it in strong lean category for those who like more actionsummaryside - strong lean arizona st -3total - no leanage
ARI st QB is playing this Saturday MEGA :) Just want to let u know.. Bet them now if u like ARI ST. Before the line go up..:)
0
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Arizona St 3 Wash (61)mega line 3sagarin 3/3.5Strong lean to the road fav here - They have been excellent this yr even with star QB out - backup has lit it up - D doing just enough - yes a miracle win vs USC - but they played well that entire game and have now beat USC and Stanford back to back - that is our only concern - 2 big big wins other concern is Wash D maybe touch better but definitely better getting turnovers - ranked #2 - QB not flashy but only 1 int so far - Kelly supposed to start again for Az St (?) has us perplexed - move makes sense if healthy - but what does that do to the chemistry if anything??.....Az St HC 9-4 SU away quietly doing a nice job.....Wash only wins vs not so stellar group of hawaii e wash illinois ga st and cal.....Cant make it a full unit for reasons discussed above but putting it in strong lean category for those who like more actionsummaryside - strong lean arizona st -3total - no leanage
ARI st QB is playing this Saturday MEGA :) Just want to let u know.. Bet them now if u like ARI ST. Before the line go up..:)
FYI - Cuse's top 2 wr coming back this game...both speed guys. Broyld & Estime. I'd love to see them get more than 17, just not sure how the OL will match up vs Clemson DL. Will be curious to see if Long is able to matriculate under pressure!
I don't think he can MATRICULATE
0
Quote Originally Posted by slashot11:
FYI - Cuse's top 2 wr coming back this game...both speed guys. Broyld & Estime. I'd love to see them get more than 17, just not sure how the OL will match up vs Clemson DL. Will be curious to see if Long is able to matriculate under pressure!
Gonna start with this one. You know our philosophy - look to back Navy as away dog - look to fade as home fav. Time tested and true does not work every time but it is usually a starting point for us if we can find other factors we like.
1. navy QB Reynolds no joke - easily in our top 10 fav college players of all time. Just so much fun to watch - Last yr's Navy / SJ St game when he rushed for 7 TD in 3 OT was just fantastic - got Vegas trip off to a great start - but we digress.....He has been banged up and even if he starts - has not been the same this yr
2014 43% comp 7.5/att 2 td 2 int and 3.6 rush
2013 53% 8.3/att 8 td 2 int 4.5 rush - 31 td
2012 56% 8.3 att 9 td 2 int 4.0/rush
QBR - yes option qb but still - 2014 28.9 last 2 yr 54,48
This yr running against above avg Ds
23 att - 42Y
19 att - 25Y
21 att - 27 Y
about 1.5Y/crack - SJ ST D is very good - #12 overall - however not great against the run- but played Auburn Minny and Nevada. Bottom line - something just not the same about Navy this yr - i mean lost 3 straight - then beat VMI.
2. SJ St has played navy last 3 yrs so are familiar - SJ St different team - but games were 27-24 12-0 and 58-52.....Navy QB hurt i think in 12-0 loss but point is - they have played 3 str yrs this will not be unfamiliar ground
3. SJ D last 3 games given up 256 221 277
4. SJ beat up at rb - but does not seem to matter - last wk used SLASH WR/RB/DB Ervin who ran for 96 and caught 6 balls for 59Y. Been getting excellent QB play last 3 games with Gray at QB - 276 265 322 L3G and only 1 int....Navy D has given up 34 24 21 31 36 30 to FBS teams.
What worries us? Well SJ St traveling. Well 2YA they won a big game in San Diego - and SHUTOUT Navy the very next wk (QB injury notwithstanding) Technically this could get them off to slow start. Navy does have N Dame on deck. But they are so freaking disciplined not sure that matters. What else? SJ loves to turn the ball over - better lately - but #118 in NCAA. Navy is #106 tho.
Looks pretty good we think. Of course a stupid-long writeup does not guarantee a win just wanted to share our reserach.
GL guys
MEGA
NAVY Coming of a bye week against an easy cup cake opponent..... I took a little time to research......
NAVY is 0-6 SU last 6 years coming off a bye week. Couple that with SJSU revenge from last year and familiarity with this NAVY team + Navy doesn't play the pass too well...... this is a big play for me.
I'm looking at SJSU SU win here, possibly.
0
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
Quote Originally Posted by MEGALOCKS:
SUNDAY EARLY TASTER
first pick
San Jose St +10
Gonna start with this one. You know our philosophy - look to back Navy as away dog - look to fade as home fav. Time tested and true does not work every time but it is usually a starting point for us if we can find other factors we like.
1. navy QB Reynolds no joke - easily in our top 10 fav college players of all time. Just so much fun to watch - Last yr's Navy / SJ St game when he rushed for 7 TD in 3 OT was just fantastic - got Vegas trip off to a great start - but we digress.....He has been banged up and even if he starts - has not been the same this yr
2014 43% comp 7.5/att 2 td 2 int and 3.6 rush
2013 53% 8.3/att 8 td 2 int 4.5 rush - 31 td
2012 56% 8.3 att 9 td 2 int 4.0/rush
QBR - yes option qb but still - 2014 28.9 last 2 yr 54,48
This yr running against above avg Ds
23 att - 42Y
19 att - 25Y
21 att - 27 Y
about 1.5Y/crack - SJ ST D is very good - #12 overall - however not great against the run- but played Auburn Minny and Nevada. Bottom line - something just not the same about Navy this yr - i mean lost 3 straight - then beat VMI.
2. SJ St has played navy last 3 yrs so are familiar - SJ St different team - but games were 27-24 12-0 and 58-52.....Navy QB hurt i think in 12-0 loss but point is - they have played 3 str yrs this will not be unfamiliar ground
3. SJ D last 3 games given up 256 221 277
4. SJ beat up at rb - but does not seem to matter - last wk used SLASH WR/RB/DB Ervin who ran for 96 and caught 6 balls for 59Y. Been getting excellent QB play last 3 games with Gray at QB - 276 265 322 L3G and only 1 int....Navy D has given up 34 24 21 31 36 30 to FBS teams.
What worries us? Well SJ St traveling. Well 2YA they won a big game in San Diego - and SHUTOUT Navy the very next wk (QB injury notwithstanding) Technically this could get them off to slow start. Navy does have N Dame on deck. But they are so freaking disciplined not sure that matters. What else? SJ loves to turn the ball over - better lately - but #118 in NCAA. Navy is #106 tho.
Looks pretty good we think. Of course a stupid-long writeup does not guarantee a win just wanted to share our reserach.
GL guys
MEGA
NAVY Coming of a bye week against an easy cup cake opponent..... I took a little time to research......
NAVY is 0-6 SU last 6 years coming off a bye week. Couple that with SJSU revenge from last year and familiarity with this NAVY team + Navy doesn't play the pass too well...... this is a big play for me.
FYI MEGALOCKS, Tennessee is going to announce that QB Worley has a torn labrum and it will be announced that he is out. Tennessee backup QB is atrocious.
SNITCHES end up being bitches, or end up with stitches, and in ditches! #REALITY
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FYI MEGALOCKS, Tennessee is going to announce that QB Worley has a torn labrum and it will be announced that he is out. Tennessee backup QB is atrocious.
FYI MEGALOCKS, Tennessee is going to announce that QB Worley has a torn labrum and it will be announced that he is out. Tennessee backup QB is atrocious.
Hearing the same.
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Quote Originally Posted by Urbanwildlife:
FYI MEGALOCKS, Tennessee is going to announce that QB Worley has a torn labrum and it will be announced that he is out. Tennessee backup QB is atrocious.
Great job Mega, you got your crew working overtime this week. GL you ole sweat shop owner. Looking forward to the Cleveland Steamer hot hot pick of the week.
0
Great job Mega, you got your crew working overtime this week. GL you ole sweat shop owner. Looking forward to the Cleveland Steamer hot hot pick of the week.
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Love to read your thread.
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