NCAA Week Seven Ponderings

Rough Week Six. Hit my top play with Maryland, pushed on Boise, had a horrible bad beat on Vandy, and whiffed on New Mexico, Missy St. and Cal. Onward and hopefully upward.

Thursday, Oct. 9th

TULANE -6' vs. East Carolina - Other than laying an egg at home against BYU, the Pirates have been solid. Feels like they can hang here, but I liked it better at +7.

Jacksonville St. -7 vs. Sam Houston - The Bearkats' "home" games are being played 80 miles away in Houston. First game as chalk for the Gamecocks, but Sammy hasn't come close to covering this year (0-5 SU, ATS and ITS). It's J'ville or nobody in this one.

Friday, Oct. 10th

Usf -1' at NORTH TEXAS - The line has flipped in this game. The Bulls have played the tougher schedule, but the Mean Green has been taking care of biz at home in impressive fashion.

WASHINGTON 10' vs. Rutgers - The Huskies rallied to beat Maryland on the road last week, but now return home on short rest, playing a team off a bye for the third straight week. And the Scarlet Knights are 10-1-1 ATS off a bye. On the flip side, UW is looking to avenge a 21-18 loss at Rutgers last year, a game in which they outgained the Knights by 222 yards! 

Saturday, Oct. 11th - early games

FLORIDA ST. -10' vs. Pittsburgh - The Panthers come into this game on a high after a 48-7 rout of Boston College in frosh QB Mason Heintschel's first start. If he can pull off a win at Doak Campbell Stadium I'll take my hat off to him, but I have a feeling the Seminoles will be on the warpath after two tough losses at Virginia and at home against Miami.

Alabama -3 at MISSOURI - The Tigers have been impressive against a light schedule, but here's where the rubber probably meets the road. I've faded the Crimson Tide the last two weeks, and it bit me in the ass. Their loss at FSU seems like a distant memory now. However, Mizzou is off a bye and if they get RB Ahmad Hardy going against a Tide defense that's struggled stopping the run things could get interesting in Columbia.

MICHIGAN ST. -8' vs. Ucla - The Bruins look like a completely different team under interim HC Tim Skipper. They didn't just BEAT Penn St. they DOMINATED them behind a monster game by QB Nico Iamaleava. Another upset here wouldn't shock me. Sparty is nothing special.

Ohio St. -14' at ILLINOIS - The Buckeyes haven't allowed any team to score ten points on them this season. I thought Washington had a chance playing at home, but Ohio St. just wore them down. Now the Illini get their shot behind QB Luke Altmyer, who's put up some impressive numbers (completing 73.6% of his passes for 1573 yards, 12 TDs and 0 ints.). However, the memory of Illinois' 63-10 blowout loss at Indiana still lingers. 

Saturday afternoon games

Texas -1' vs Oklahoma - Sooners' QB John Mateer may be back for this massive showdown, or he may not be. Got a feeling this line will flip if he's cleared to play. The Longhorns have lost to the only good teams they've played this year, and Oklahoma is pretty good.

UNLV -6' vs. Air Force - Against FBS teams the Flyboys are 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS and 0-4 ITS, and allowing 44 points and 528 yards a game. The Rebels are in the G5 playoff mix at 5-0 (4-0 ATS), but their defense isn't very good either (413.4 yards and 26 points allowed per game). Feels like a 45-35 kind of game.

Appalachian St. -2' at GEORGIA ST. - The Mountaineers have won 11 straight in this series, but the Panthers have played a much tougher schedule and gave JMU all they could handle last week in a 14-7 loss. App St. has been no bargain on the road either.

OREGON -7' vs. Indiana - The Hoosiers are picking up where they left off last season, but we'll find out just how good they are this week. The Ducks are at home and they've won 38 of their last 39 games at Autzen Stadium. Indiana struggled when the competition got tougher a year ago, and they had their hands full at Iowa two weeks ago. Leaning Oregon at this point.

Wake Forest -2' at OREGON ST. - Wake took Georgia Tech to overtime two weeks ago and upset Virginia Tech on the road last week, but now they're on the road for a second straight game, traveling to the left Coast, and facing a Beavers team desperate for their first win in '25. If the Beavs can avoid mistakes they have a chance here, but that's a big if.

Ive played Rutgers already and I like UCLA too. A lot of people are saying letdown after winning a big game, but I think they can continue playing better. They shouldnt have ever been that bad in the first place so I can see them continuing to build on that win. Plus who thinks laying 8 with MSU is a great idea? Its just too many in my opinion

@Boisestateand8

 Thanks for the thoughts and write ups , I had rough week last week too, hopefully we bounce back this week, patience &  playing Disciplined is the key 

Saturday evening games 

Georgia -3' at AUBURN - The Bulldogs have won seven straight meetings but could have their hands full here. In their only other road game this season they were fortunate to come out of Knoxville with a win in overtime. The Tigers are off a bye following two tough losses on the road at Oklahoma and A&M by a combined 13 points. This one could go either way.

USC -2' vs. Michigan - The Trojans are off a bye and looking to avenge last season's 27-24 loss in Ann Arbor. This looks like a coin flip game. The Wolverines have a strong running game, and a stout defense. USC has an explosive offense, a bend but don't break defense and are a tough out playing at home in the Coliseum.

TEXAS TECH -14 vs. Kansas - The Jayhawks average 434.8 yards and 35 points a game, led by dual threat QB Jalon Daniels, who has passed for 1497 yards with 16 TDs and just two picks. He's also rushed for 239 yards (4.8 YPR) and a score. The Red Raiders are the best team in the Big 12, but this is the best offense their 9th ranked defense has faced. Got a feeling Kansas keeps this one close, or at least within the spread.

BOISE ST. -16' vs. New Mexico - The Lobos have an extra day to prepare, having played last Friday, and could be dangerous here. After all, they crushed UCLA on the road a few weeks ago, and we all saw what the Bruins did to Penn St. last weekend. Boise is off a tough loss at Notre Dame with UNLV on deck, and their defense is prone to giving up the big play. A big key for Boise is whether or not TE Matt Lauter plays. He didn't play against the Irish and was sorely missed.

@Yanasaur

The thing that concerns me about Rutgers is their defense. They've given up 31 points to Ohio (W), 38 to Iowa (L), and 31 to Minnesota (L). If this game turns into a track meet I don't like their chances. I'll probably stay away from this game. But I agree UCLA looks like the right side in East Lansing.

@ULLafayettekid

 BOL to both of us!