My plays this Saturday

12:00 Navy/Air Force over 51  

3:30 C Michigan -7 @ Akron  

4:00 Kent State @ Oklahoma FQ -10 

7:30 Minnesota @ Ohio State -23 

7:30 FSU @ Miami -4 

What do you need to know about my picks? Let’s discuss!

FSU at home.

GL. 

@smellybunty

 Yes sir! Typed incorrectly! 

DG 

@DrGame

 Big CANES fan here but FSU's QB Castellanos is dangerous when he scrambles. 

It's a long 7 hour drive to Tally so I don't expect too many Hurricane fans to make the trip. The CANES need to remain disciplined which they have been most of the year under Cristobal.

GO CANES!

@Midnight1

 Miami’s offense has been efficient and physical, anchored by a bruising ground game that ranks #4 in the ACC (181 YPG). QB Carson Beck is completing 73% of his passes with a 7–3 TD-INT ratio and has been well protected (5 sacks in 4 games). The WR trio of Toney, Daniels, and Marion has been steady, if unspectacular, and the offensive line is elite. This isn’t last year’s fireworks unit, but it’s a balanced, methodical attack that grinds defenses down.

FSU’s defense held up well against Alabama’s limited ground game in Week 1 but showed cracks vs Virginia, surrendering 200+ rushing yards and struggling to contain explosive plays. They’ve registered 10 sacks and rank 5th in the ACC in TFL, solid but not overwhelming. Miami should be able to impose their will in the trenches, but Beck may need to hit a few chunk throws to truly separate. Notably, Florida State has only allowed three 30+ yard pass plays all season.

The Noles rank #2 nationally in rushing (336 YPG), thanks to QB Thomas Castellanos, a dynamic runner whose passing remains inconsistent (64%, 4–3 TD-INT). His connection with WR Duce Robinson (17 catches, 346 yards, 20.4 YPC) has been the lone big-play threat through the air.

The problem? Miami’s defensive front is elite, allowing just 76 rushing YPG (#8 nationally) and has already shut down mobile QBs. They sacked Notre Dame QBs three times and Florida QBs four times, and they’ll make Castellanos work for every yard. If FSU can’t stay ahead of schedule with the run, their offense risks stalling.

This matchup features two battle-tested teams with contrasting strengths. Florida State leans on a lethal ground game, but Miami is built to counter exactly that, with one of the best front sevens in the country. Offensively, Miami has the steadier QB play and offensive line, and they’ve looked disciplined through four weeks. FSU’s home crowd and rushing attack keep them dangerous, but the bye-week edge and defensive front tilt this slightly toward the Canes.