See that last post on the previous page 2..... let me refine that because I was looking at the wrong column.....Will re-do my data. I have the right idea but there are some caveats now that I realize I am looking at the correct preseason column.
Once its done, I will explain....
So...false alarm on the post that I was excited about uncovering something last night .....or maybe not? I had looked at column incorrectly!
I am in the middle of a correlation based on:
-improved defensive SP+ numbers as the year rolls on
-improved offensive SP+ numbers as the year rolls on
- a determination of how much improvement in rank launches the vastly improved record that was 'un-diagnosed' in early team assessment by SP+ final pre-season ranks
- analysis will be done in 3 rank zones
> 1 - 49th preseason SP+ overall rank (32 of 50 = had a winning record ...not a slam dunk that all win!)
-teams with 4 or more wins above .500 = 21 of 32
> 50th - 115th (37 of 65 = had a winning record / 28 of the 37 were 2 games above .500 winning record)
-teams with 4 or more wins above .500 = 18 of 37
> 116th - 134th ( 2 of 19 had a winning record)
-teams with 4 or more wins above .500 = 2 of 19 and both were 9 - 4
Upon glancing and 'painting' my zones of improvements on my spreadsheet.....I am definitely picking up some trends but will wait till I have cracked every number and get the avg out..... when I do so, I will probably chop the highest win record and the lowest win record just to get the mean a little more to the average of what that rank zone tends to represent in defensive improvement or offense.... what to look for might be uncovered as the year goes on, in addition to your good ole fashioned immersed team scouting
Once done doing this deeper 2024 correlation of side of the ball improvement vs rank zone, I will report and then do 2023 to see if they correlate similar data (2023 was the start of mass transferring but not all programs bought into doing it en masse like we see now)
it’s been amazing, I’ve been all over the country this year, life is good & im grateful
hope you are ready to beat those books my friend, interested to see what you come up with & will be cheering you on as always
Great to hear and thanks!
You've inspired me with your epic uncovering of blisteringly good angles on teams that were ranked in the other side of the Top 134 
... lets have some fun as always and tune out da dummies who are lazy!
OK....... BIG PICTURE:
-improve your offense appears to have the best effect on overall record but not exclusively....there are some teams that carve a record from their improved defense only, but they are not earth shattering winners in most cases
-offense seems to lead the way to improved defense over the course of the season for teams not in the Top15-20
- Ohio St. had a preseason rank of 25th for Offense last year > they finished #2
-Ohio St had a preseason rank of 2nd for Defense last year > they finished #1
GUESS who has almost exactly the same setup preseason in rankings SP+?: 24th in Offense/2nd in Defense ...here is a clue....they have been picked #1 team in most preseason polls
- If you improve both defense and offense, as the season progresses, by a measure of at least 40 ranks in OFFENSE and 20 ranks in defense, you tend to end up with 10-12 wins at the end of the season (bowl + playoffs included)
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Specific Ranking Zones:- will have to do this over multiple posts (just completed 90th - 134th rank zone)
Results:
-if a team started with a better defense than offense by at least 35 ranks, they tended to improve on both sides of the ball and especially on offense!
- data says 11 out of 11 teams with this scenario, improved their offense on avg by 40 ranks per team 
from the start of the season to the end of the year and
These teams were: Akron (4-8) + 5 ranks improved, UCONN (9-4) + 59 ranks, Buffalo (9-4) +48 ranks, Ball St (3-9)+22 ranks, EMU (5-7) +19 ranks, Navy (10-3) +73 ranks, FAU (3-9) +13 ranks, Ohio (11-3) +66 ranks, Army (12-2) +73 ranks, NIU (8-5) +8 ranks, ECU (8-5) +51 ranks
(7 out of 11 with strong win records)
Other notes in this class:
Where the ranks were similar or the Offense was ahead of the defense, generally, the teams in this scenario did not improve their OFFENSE .....some did improve their defense despite a weakening offense
- only 4 of 21 teams improved their offense
My takeaways from this Rank Zone......look for a better Defense than offense by a wide margin (35+ ranks) and follow the team to see how they progress on Offense....if they are, ride them until VEGAS catches on....but its game to game
This year for Preseason Rank, THESE TEAMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO GREATLY IMPROVE (if similar results carry into the 2025 season as 2024 did ): Kennesaw St. (136/96), Louisiana Tech (125/83), NIU (134/83), SDSU (126/74), Air Force (119/70) and Miami Oh. (135/35)
I know how to use this info and I will not repeat my info. This thread will remain but starting next weekend, I will be doing a weekly play thread and once in a while, updating what I find as I simulate 2024 all over again with spreads and ranks between teams analyzed to see if I can spot some hiccups by Vegas....we shall see
Next post will be about Rank Zone 30th - 90th ...will report what I find
Other teams I will follow closely, ranked 90th - 136th: - keep in mind, I haven't even gotten into TOTALS yet and I will as I simulate the whole 2024 season week by week as we approach a week.....so this week, I am working on correlations between lines and ranks from Week 0/1 results from last year and may not even bet much this week.....it just depends on what I find
Central Michigan
UL Monroe
Rice
Sam Houston
Hawaii
Purdue
Buffalo
BIG OFFENSES in this rank zone: (check their defensive progress....)
North Texas
Coastal Carolina
ECU
Arkansas St.
Rank Zone 30th - 90th - SP+ 2024 observations to carryover into using in 2025?
-RANK ZONE 90th - 134th analysis established, Off improvement was correlated with significant improvements in final SP+, but more importantly, strong win - loss recorded IF the team started with a weaker Offense rank when compared to Defense rank by at least 25-35 rank positions (e.g. Army at 116th offense preseason Aug. 2024/ 73rd Def >> became 43 OFF/33 DEF and a 12-2 record....even a team like Ohio with PRE Aug 2024 133 OFF/37 DEF ...blossomed to final rankings of 67 OFF/47 DEF and an 11 - 3 final record)
- there were numerous examples.... and 7 out of 11 and winning and in some cases, very strong seasons!
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What did the Zone 30th Preseason Aug 2024 - 90th rank reveal?
-15 teams with stronger Dees vs O's by more than 30+ ranks
- 9 of 15 improved their ranking overall > all of them (9) improved their offense....only 4 of the 9 improved their defense as well
- 1 of 15 improved offense by +7 but defense by -6 regressed..... so it dropped in rankings but still ended 7-6 (Nebraska)
- 5 of 15 regressed strongly because their offense regressed (except one by +2) and their defense was affected strongly in all 5 cases as well
Rank zone 30-59th produced:
5 winning records and only one losing...... 11-3 highest (Iowa St), 9-4 2nd highest (Duke) and 4 - 8 lowest (Maryland)
Rank zone 60-90th produced:
5 winning records / 4 losing ..... 11 - 2 highest (Indiana), 10-3 2nd highest (Illiniois) and 3 - 9 > 90th ranked Wyoming
**** I conclude this rank zone (30-90th) has some gems but you have to really keep an eye on their SP+ stats which are dictated by boxscore results more than anything, not WINS/LOSSES because the SP+ is based on Offensive strength- Defensive strength
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Teams with greatly improved Offense in 2024 (30th - 90th rank zone)
-Louisville +41 (9-4), S Carolina +24 (9-4), Boise +19 (12-2), Baylor +33 (8-5), Wake F +28 (8-5), Tulane +45 (9-5), Syracuse +59 (10-3), BYU +27 (11-2), Arizona St +48 (11-3), S.Alab. +32 (7-6), Texas St +36 (8-5)
Teams with greatly improved Defenses in 2024 (30th - 90th rank zone)
Vandy +45 (7-6), Tex St +41 in addition to offense (8 - 5), UNLV +64 as well as +17 Off (11-3), Ariz St. +45 in addition to offense boost (11-3), Houston +43 /OFF regress = (4-8), W.Kentucky +38/offense dropped (8-6), ULL +38 (10-4), BYU +65 in addition to much improved OFF (11-2), Colorado +55 /slight improve on Off (9-4), James Madison +36 /+8 OFF = (9-4)
My Takeaway: - study boxscores after a weekend
More specificially, CHECK BOXSCORES and align with SP+ rating for offense......if its not measuring up......LAY OFF THE TEAM until they put together 2 games or more of strong results
Deep analysis of #1 - #29 next ....will report what I find if it has merit
Teams I will follow closely in 2025, ranked 30th - 90th: - BASED ON INSPECTION of LAST YEAR
Weaker Offense vs very Strong Defense:
Nebraska
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Kentucky
At least one of those 4 will breakout on offense ...... as they have strong defenses
2nd level profile that could surprise **stronger defense than offense but stronger offenses than above
FSU
UCLA
Washington
Might be diamond in the rough .....
Houston
Cincy
Sparty
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OFFENSIVELY VERY STRONG (Contender Type) - might pull Good Defense along to become a Top 20 team with big record
Boise
Baylor
STRONG OFFENSE and GOOD DEFENSE
Georgia Tech
Tulane
Kansas
Very Strong Off Rank/ Average to So-So Defense
UTSA
Memphis
Strong Off Rank / Average Defense
North Carolina
Syracuse
Established in 1995,
(and every year !! You make it fun my friend
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