Its time for me to ruin the TCU/Arizona State game

Why TCU @ Arizona State UNDER 54.5 is the Play of the Night

Look, I'll be honest with you - when I first saw this total sitting at 56.5 earlier in the week, I thought "okay, two good offenses, prime time Friday night football, this thing's probably going over." But then I started digging into the tape, the numbers, and the way these teams actually play football, and man, everything started pointing the other direction.

Here's what caught my attention first: this total has dropped two full points from the opener. We went from 56.5 down to 54.5, and that's not by accident. Sharp money is hammering the under here, and when you see that kind of movement against public sentiment - especially with two teams that can score - you need to pay attention.

The public sees Josh Hoover throwing for nearly 340 yards per game and thinks "shootout." They see Arizona State's home field under the lights and remember last year's CFP run. But the sharp guys? They're seeing something completely different, and they're betting accordingly.

Kenny Dillingham doesn't want to play basketball on grass. This dude wants to win games 24-17, and he's proven it all season long. Check this out: Arizona State has cashed the under in three consecutive games. That's not a coincidence - that's a philosophy.

They rank outside the top 100 in plays per minute, and it's completely intentional. They want to sit on the football, grind out drives with that three-headed rushing attack (Raleek Brown, Kyson Brown, Kanye Udoh), and keep opposing offenses on the sideline. They're 107th nationally in pass rate because they simply don't want to throw the ball unless they absolutely have to.

When Sam Leavitt drops back, he's averaging just 6.3 yards per attempt - that's a massive drop from his 8.0 last season. This isn't the explosive Arizona State offense from the playoff run. Cam Skattebo is in the NFL now, and while Raleek Brown has been solid (6.6 yards per carry), this is a completely different animal. They're methodical, they're patient, and they're content to win ugly.

TCU's Defense is Built to Slow This Game Down

Here's where it gets interesting: TCU might be 105th in EPA per play on defense overall, but they're absolutely elite at the exact things Arizona State wants to do. The Horned Frogs rank 20th in Pro Football Focus's run defense grade and 27th in tackling. They're only giving up 3.2 yards per carry, which is borderline dominant.

So what happens when a team that wants to run the ball (ASU) runs into a defense that's specifically built to stop the run? You get a grinding, clock-chewing, three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust game. You get 35-second play clocks, you get field position battles, you get punts.

Arizona State can't expose TCU's weak secondary (which ranks 105th in pass defense success rate) because their passing game is completely one-dimensional. Jordyn Tyson is literally the only receiver with more than four catches on the season. Teams are loading the box, daring Leavitt to beat them through the air, and he's averaging just 187 passing yards per game. He's not suddenly going to turn into Patrick Mahomes on Friday night.

TCU's missing running back Kevorian Barnes to injury, and while that might sound like a negative, it actually plays into the under. Jeremy Payne, who's filling in, has just a 23% rushing success rate - that's the lowest among all TCU running backs. When you can't run the ball effectively, what happens? Drives stall. You get more three-and-outs. Clock stops on incompletions become more frequent, sure, but you also get way fewer sustained touchdown drives.

Josh Hoover is going to get his yards - he's too talented not to - but Arizona State's defense ranks 39th nationally in EPA per pass. They can absolutely make Hoover work for everything he gets, especially with that pass rush that's tied for first in the Big 12 with 13 sacks.

Think about the context here: Arizona State just survived a nail-biter at Baylor, winning 27-24 on a last-second field goal. They kicked FOUR field goals in that game. Dillingham literally said in his presser "We kicked four field goals. It pains me to say it out loud." That's not a team that's going to suddenly light up the scoreboard.

TCU, meanwhile, just got into a track meet with SMU and won 35-24, but Sonny Dykes was pissed about the discipline. Nine penalties for 65 yards, a red zone interception - these are the kinds of mistakes that lead to field goals instead of touchdowns, punts instead of points.

Both coaches are going to have their teams locked in on execution, and when coaches preach execution after sloppy games, what do you get? Slower, more methodical football. Less gambling on fourth down. More punting. More field goals.

Arizona State's offense ranks 87th in EPA per play. When you can't move the ball efficiently between the 20s, you're certainly not going to be explosive in the red zone. And TCU's offense, while explosive through the air, is going to face that Arizona State front seven that can absolutely get after the quarterback.

Here's the thing about high-scoring games: they require big plays AND red zone efficiency. You can have one or the other and still go under. In this game, I'm not sure we're getting either consistently enough from both sides to hit 55 points.

Arizona State wants to play keep-away. They're going to try to possess the ball for 35+ minutes if they can. Every drive they can keep the ball for 5-6 minutes is one less possession for TCU's offense. And TCU, when they do get the ball, is going to face a defense that's going to make them earn every single yard.

Compare that to what we saw earlier in the week with the TCU-SMU total. SMU wants to run tempo, push pace, get 80+ plays in a game. That game hit 59 points. Arizona State is the complete opposite. They're going to slow this thing down to a crawl.

The Weather's Perfect for Defense, Too

We're looking at 70-degree weather in Tempe at kickoff - perfect conditions, right? Sure, for offense. But also for defenses that want to swarm, tackle, and not worry about heat exhaustion. No weather factors means no excuses for either defense.

When I close my eyes and think about how this game plays out, I see a 27-24, maybe 27-23 type of final score. I see Arizona State controlling the clock, TCU hitting a couple big plays to keep it close, maybe some field goals sprinkled in when drives stall in the red zone.

I see Hoover making plays but also taking some sacks from that ASU pass rush. I see Leavitt managing the game, hitting Tyson for a few key conversions, but not lighting up the stat sheet. I see defenses stiffening up when it matters most.

The sharp money is on the under. The trends point to the under. The pace of play screams under. The personnel matchups favor the under. And most importantly, the way these teams are built - one wants to grind, one can't stop the grind - everything points to a lower-scoring game than people expect.

Give me UNDER 54.5 and sleep easy. This one's going to be a battle in the trenches, not a track meet in the desert.

Dude - the weather can play a much bigger factor than you noted.  There is currently heavy wind and rain surrounding the entire Phoenix metro area with flash flood warnings.  I like this under 

@JimmyGape

 Great write up brother !  Thanks 

hope OT don't hit, Good LUck

@JimmyGape

 Bol tonight/this week JG

I like it 

 ASU offense has problems and I think coaching and players aren’t clicking. Dillingham is constantly frustrated. The line has played like shit. A whole lot of their offense has been Leavitt scrambling and making plays against mediocre defenses. Tyson is a solid receiver. Obviously the potential is there but they are not executing very well so far. They better have their shit together and clicking against TCU

Also, the home advantage perhaps matters more for the home defense against the visiting offense

Devils advocate angle is that ASU defense has been erratic as well, and both teams can score points fast if offenses are clicking 

Good luck on the under 

Excellent write up, appreciate the work. Youve convinced me for sure

@JimmyGape

Friday night underdogs have been hitting at a good clip also.

@JimmyGape

@JimmyGape

 Ok, well, I dont see it getting any more unreal than this right here. Dayum!! If you dont mind when you get a minute go ahead and close your eyes and picture a few more for Saturday this same exact way! WOW! Right on the money!!

Sold, but. Gonna buy 1.5. GL all.