Iowa State vs Kansas State -3

Thoughts on the game….

If I were on the total (49.5) leaning under, given the potential for jet lag, an unfamiliar environment, and both teams’ defensive identities. It feels like a classic early-season grind where points might come at a premium, especially with the historical trend of Aer Lingus Classics being lower-scoring affairs. The implied score (KSU 26.25-23.25) seems reasonable, but I’d shade it even tighter, like 24-20 KSU, assuming no major weather issues (and the forecast does look solid).

Avery Johnson as a dual-threat QB giving KSU a clear edge. He showed real flashes last year, and with a full offseason as the starter, plus that deep RB room (Edwards going off in the bowl was legit), they should control the ground game and keep ISU’s defense honest. The OL stability is a big plus too, only allowing 17 sacks on average over three years is elite protection.

Iowa State’s secondary losses hurt them. Losing three key DBs from a unit that was already tested late in 2024 (giving up 41+ in two of their final four games) could be exploited by KSU’s weapons like Jayce Brown and Garrett Oakley. And yeah, the WR departures (Higgins and Noel both over 1K yards) are massive; Rocco Becht’s inefficiency against KSU last year (13-of-35) without those guys feels like a red flag for the passing attack.

The intangible of KSU’s defensive front seven being a tough matchup for ISU’s OL, especially with new pieces at center and LT. KSU’s run defense should bottle up Sama and Hansen enough to force Becht into uncomfortable spots.

All in all, this game pumps me up for what should be a gritty Big 12 slugfest to kick off 2025, and I’m  leaning the -3 with KSU. KSU moneyline feels safer than the spread, and under 49.5 has appeal. Can’t wait to see if the beer runs out first or if we get a classic overseas overtime thriller!

I like Kansas State as well...You bring up some salient points...Iowa State has owned them for the last 7 years or so...I think the loss of the elite Wr's for the Clones will adversely impact them early in the season...I think Kansas Statewins and covers...

@DrGame

@DrGame

 Nice write up, man. 

Note on KSU OL in case you didn't know- LT transfer from Ohio St was the shoo-in starter.  He's out indefinitely, which is a big hit in a huge position.  The rest of the OL- they don't have a lot of starts, but they bring lots of reps from last season. Might take some time- I wouldn't call them stable.

@ksuwins

 Thanks I was not aware of the LT

Under seems like a solid play as you say. For ISU QB Rocco Becht should actually be surprisingly effective on the run funny enough. Also Abu Sama should get some good angles and has a chance to get in the 60-80 yard range.

Avery Johnson as a dual threat is a correct assessment. He will be very effective. I think Dylan Edwards gets a crease at some point in this game and does major damage over 50 yards rushing, not counting his kickoff returns. Lastly Jayce Brown for KSU tore them up for 2 TDS last year. ISU was the number 1 pass defense in the league in 2024 and it didn't matter. I can see him getting another TD. I'm personally staying away from the spread & total, but I got player props going for each player I mentioned. Good luck Doc!

In agreement here - I'm also going with the safer pick of Kansas State ML

nice write up, but you kind of pick and choose imo. ksu is at least as bad off in the back end of the d as isu. i would argue worse. ksu also replacing 2 receivers. ksu is definitely explosive out of the backfield, but the isu front is very legit...especially at lb. should be a great game. i think both sides have some questions though. i took the points small because i am just itching to get some early season action in. i think it will pretty much boil down to which team handles the travel situation best, and which secondary steps up. ksu has the 3 shiny objects at qb, rb and wr that will draw people to that side. isu is just always underrated and plain looking...and i know they like it that way. good luck all season guys.

Good thread with actual discussion about the game.  Really nice to see.

@monkeybutt

 Good stuff, man.  KSU WR transfers- they got one solid one- Tibbs.  Based on film alone, it appears ISU got the better WR transfer talent.  Sowell and Townsend look legit.  On the other side of the ball, KSU lost two huge contributors in the secondary.  Not sure they've shored that up.

Looking forward to seeing if Avery can see the field better and take off when the yards are available.  Nobody can catch him.

KSU lost last year due to 2 fumbles, a safety, and missed FG. I dont see them having two fumbles or a missed FG tmrw. KSU offense> ISU offense

KSU -3

@ksuwins

 yeah i love watching avery play. he can be the deciding factor for sure at any time. isu is lacking that explosiveness the cats have. just looking forward to some real football. i only played one unit, so i will enjoy it either way. 

Good Luck 

Iowa State is coming off the best season in program history, an 11-win campaign that ended against Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Weather Forecast: Mild and mostly dry in Dublin for the 2:30 PM local kickoff (9:30 AM ET). Expect highs around 64°F (18°C), lows of 54°F (12°C), with a 20-30% chance of light showers early, clearing to partly cloudy. Winds 10-15 mph.

No last-minute injury announcements have surfaced, with the Big 12’s mandated availability reports from August 20 holding steady. These are the first such reports in conference history, required three days before kickoff and updated 90 minutes prior.

Nice write up. Im on K ST also. I think having a mobile running QB really helps early in the season. Johnson will have the opportunity to make big plays with the run. ISU defense was a bit slow last yr, lets see if he can take advantage. Becht is a player and he worries me and ISU has a top tier coach. That makes this game close. Im going on the ML -155 with K State. Going to be a great scene in Dublin, they have really taken to College football over there, good to see.