UNLV is coming off an impressive 11-3 season in 2024, including a Mountain West Championship appearance (loss to Boise State) and a win over Cal in the LA Bowl. However, the program has undergone significant turnover: Head coach Barry Odom left for Purdue, replaced by Dan Mullen (former Florida and Mississippi State coach with a strong offensive background). The Rebels rank 132nd nationally in returning production, meaning much of the roster is new via transfers. Offensively, they plan to emphasize a run-heavy attack with potential dual-quarterback usage. Defensively, new coordinator Paul Guenther (former NFL DC) brings an aggressive, blitz-heavy scheme. This is a tune-up game for UNLV.
Idaho St emphasize an offense-first identity, averaging 32 points per game last season with a pass-heavy approach. The Bengals return experience on the offensive line (four starters, allowing just 10 sacks) and at wide receiver, plus transfers from Power 5 programs like Baylor and Utah State. However, their defense was a major weakness, ranking 121st in FCS rush defense (allowing 250+ yards per game at over 5 yards per carry) and losing all five defensive linemen. The secondary also struggled, permitting a 63% completion rate with 19 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions.
UNLV’s uncertainty with a new coach, low returning production, and a QB rotation, the Rebels may not dominate early. Mullen’s teams historically take time to implement complex schemes, and this is his debut.
The Bengals can score (32 ppg in 2024) with a protected QB and experienced receivers. They could backdoor cover by putting up 17-21 points late if UNLV pulls starters or experiments.
Idaho State’s run defense is poor, which favors Thomas and UNLV’s ground game, but if the Rebels build a big lead, they might coast, keeping the margin under 31
Week 0 - These games often see closer-than-expected scores due to rust, and the total (65.5+) suggests points on both sides, helping an underdog cover.
Potential risks: If UNLV’s transfers click immediately, they could blow it out.
I’m liking my chances small on the dog here.
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