Kansas returns home after a season as nomads during stadium renovations, hoping the boost of familiar turf helps after a 5–7 2024. Fresno (6–7) also seeks a fresh start under a new HC. KU has higher Big 12 expectations, while Fresno aims to stabilize in the MWC.
KU’s 2024 was a rollercoaster: an opening blowout win, five close losses (17 pts combined in four), then a 3-game win streak before Baylor ended bowl hopes. HC Lance Leipold (15-9-1 ATS at home) now has a veteran roster.
Kansas Offense: Elite on the ground (211 YPG, 13th FBS). Star RB Devin Neal left for the NFL, but Daniel Hishaw (5.8 YPC) and Iowa transfer LeShon Williams return. QB Jalon Daniels (57%, 14-12 TD-INT) brings mobility behind an OL that allowed just 10 sacks (4th FBS). WR/TE is a rebuild, relying on transfers Cam Pickett (Ball St.) and Emmanuel Henderson (Ala.).
Kansas Defense: Middle of the pack in ’24, now replacing top six tacklers and CBs Mello Dotson & Cobee Bryant. DL is a strength with DE Dean Miller (6 sacks) and DT DJ Withers, plus transfers LB Trey Lathan (79 tackles WVU) and Joseph Sipp Jr. (79 tackles, 4 sacks BGSU). Secondary is unproven. Special teams must replace PK Tabor Allen and find returners. Favorable schedule could spark a 6–0 start.
Fresno Offense: Last year’s weakness (98 YPG rush, 124th FBS). QB Mikey Keene (18-11 TD-INT) departs; new QBs EJ Warner (Temple/Rice) and Carson Conklin (Sac. St.) compete. RB Bryson Donelson (6.0 YPC) returns, but WR corps lost top 3 (2,000+ yds, 15 TDs). Portal adds Josiah Ayon and Jahlil McClain must step up. OL brings back just 2 starters.
Fresno Defense: Strength in ’24 (50th rush, 14th pass eff.), but lost top 3 tacklers and pass rushers. Secondary is a plus with CB Al’Zillion Hamilton (13 PBUs) and 2 others back. DL solid with DEs Jahzon Jacks & Korey Foreman. LBs are thin, needing transfers. ST is steady with PK Dylan Lynch (13/20 FGs) and P Clay Lawrence, though PR Jalen Moss departs.
Matchup Outlook: KU’s OL (5.5 YPC last 3 yrs) vs Fresno’s rebuilding front is decisive. If Daniels avoids TOs, KU’s ground game should control tempo. Fresno’s secondary may test KU’s new WRs, but the Bulldogs’ own OL/WR/QB turnover makes scoring tough. Turnovers loom large: Fresno has a +42 margin since 2017, while KU needs Daniels to protect the ball.
Key Angles:
- KU home-field is huge after last year’s road grind.
- Fresno is cross-country under a new HC, opening against a P4 team.
- Special teams could matter if KU’s new PK falters.
- KU’s schedule sets up early momentum; Fresno faces Kansas + Oregon St. early.
Projection: KU’s run game and DL dominate, controlling clock and limiting Fresno possessions. Fresno’s inconsistencies + OL rebuild make it tough to stay close. Expect KU to roll 31–17 and eye a strong start.
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