Boise State at USF - UNDER

I like the under. What’s your angle?

Defensive Firepower Steals the Show: Both squads boast legit stop units. USF’s D is underrated and improving, strong against the run and efficient in the air, with veteran LBs and secondary ready to frustrate Madsen’s passing game. Boise’s front is still disruptive, and their secondary could feast on USF’s O-line if those sack issues persist. Expect bend-but-don’t-break efforts that keep scores in the 20s-30s per side, not the shootout implied by 62.

2.  Offensive Question Marks Cap Explosiveness: USF gets Brown back, which boosts their ceiling, but the RB drop-off and WR rebuild mean they’re not dropping 40+ bombs right away. Boise without Jeanty? Madsen’s good, but they’ll lean conservative early, grinding clock with Sherrod/Gaines rather than airing it out recklessly. Both O-lines are experienced, but that translates to controlled, methodical drives—not fireworks.

3.  Special Teams Regression Adds Conservatism: Neither team has the return game pop from last year, likely leading to worse field position and more punts. That drags totals down in close games.

4.  Pace and Style Fit the Under: USF’s balanced attack with a mobile QB could chew clock, while Boise’s post-Jeanty identity screams run-heavy efficiency. Add in potential early-season rust (it’s Week 1, after all), and we’re looking at a 31-24 type affair—totaling in the mid-50s, well south of 62.

I’ve crunched the outlook for both teams this season and this seems like a gritty, defensive slugfest rather than a Big 12-style track meet.

Good luck Dr. G.  

Did USF get a new DC? Where is the evidence their defense is better? 

They started the year at a rating of 118th best out of 134 teams and improved to 109th in 2024.....

QB Brown will help their defense (keep them off the field resting/motivating), IF their o-line performs and Brown manages to effectively scramble because the Boise secondary is shutdown on one side of the secondary so you can bet, they will have a plan for Brown ....last year proved Boise is an effective defense, even through the playoffs but realize, over 90 pts were put up on the board in game 1 

If this goes Under, it will be from USF NOT converting TDs, not from Boise who have a balanced attack and strong offensive play calling fully proven + the personnel to get the job done. It remains to be seen if the Boise defense wishes to play with their ears pinned back in the 89 F heat and humidity

Be ready for an  in-game bet?  

But ya, I can see a 38 - 24 kind of score here.....potentially

@Last2thirst

Great points, and you’re spot on about the raw defensive rating. USF still finished bottom tier in yards allowed. But the important context is how they defended late in the year versus early.

Trend Line, Not Just Ranking: USF shaved almost two TDs per game off their defensive average from 2022 - 2024 (41.2, 32.2, 29.8). That’s not elite, but it’s progression. They return 8 starters, including their top three tacklers, and added size up front from the portal. That continuity + reinforcements matters, especially in the AAC where roster churn is constant.

Brown’s Impact: Totally agree, Brown is the X-factor, and it’s not just his scoring. His ability to extend drives and keep the defense off the field directly limits opponent possessions. That’s where I think this game tilts more toward clock control than a track meet. If he’s scrambling against a high-pressure Boise front, those are long, grinding possessions either way.

Boise’s Balance: Nobody is questioning Boise’s ability to move the football but the loss of Jeanty is massive. He was not just production, he was explosiveness. Replacing 2,600+ yards and nearly 30 TDs with a committee makes them more efficient, less explosive. That plays toward more sustained drives rather than 70-yard home run shots.

Heat & Humidity: Totally fair angle, Boise coming into Florida conditions is no joke. But that usually impacts defenses just as much as offenses. Fatigue means less consistent tackling, longer drives, and clock moving. That actually favors the Under just as much as the Over because it extends possessions without guaranteeing touchdowns.

My read: This total is inflated off Boise’s 2024 offensive reputation and USF’s Hawaii Bowl shootout. Both situations aren’t repeatable here. If the Under cashes, it’s not only USF failing in the red zone, it’s also Boise not having the same quick-strike gear we’re used to.

I’m on the over last year south Florida defense was atrocious. They’re giving up 33 points a game  I don’t see it improving

@dustmiester

Totally fair, USF did give up just over 33 a game last year, no arguing that. But it’s worth noting that was actually their second straight year of improvement (down from 41 ? 32 ? 29.8). Not great, but trending in the right direction.

The bigger key for me is that this year’s version of USF isn’t built to play pinball on the scoreboard. Byrum Brown + that veteran O-line will extend possessions, bleed clock, and force Boise to defend more sustained drives. On the other side, Boise’s offense loses Jeanty, their most explosive player, which means fewer quick-strike scores.

I’m not saying USF suddenly turned into Georgia’s defense, but the combination of incremental defensive progress, roster continuity, and style of play makes me trust this total is set too high.

Come on coach! That 4th and one was costly.

Played the under 31 1h. Good luck on 2nd half.