UCSB has played a much tougher schedule than UC Davis and they've been without their leading scorer for a month, who happens to be last year's Big West Player of the Year. He's been back for a few games now.
UCSB's strength of schedule is #100. Their out of conference schedule was tough. They played Kansas (only lost by 10), SMU, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State, Colorado State, etc. UC Davis played absolutely no one. Their strength of schedule is #304 out of 351 teams. Last year, they were the worst team in the Big West. Their stats for offensive efficiency, field goal percentage, three point percentage, etc., are all great because of their schedule. What you don't see is they turn the ball over a lot - turnover percentage is #308 in college b-ball, and their steal percentage is #321 in college b-ball. So they turn the ball over and are one of the worst teams in the nation in steals. And they don't get any blocks. Mind you too, these stats were against some bad teams like Furman and San Jose State. Oh, and a D-2 school to start the season (who they only beat by 15).
UCSB returns from a three game road trip and they need this game to stay within the top-4 teams in the Big West, so they'd get a bye. UCSB is 9-2 at home this year and 19-5 in the last two seasons. Davis beat UCSB by six points last month, but again, UCSB was without Williams.
81% of the public is on UC Davis because they look at the two team's records. What they dont't see is UC Davis strength of schedule and the fact that UCSB has Williams back. Despite the public being all over Davis, the line has moved from -4 to -6.5. Sharps are on the Gauchos here.
UCSB needs this game much more than UC Davis. Neither team has any shot of making the tournament out right, so these games are all about Big West rankings for the tournament.
Taking UCSB -4 here. Took right when it came out and bought the half of point.
UCSB has played a much tougher schedule than UC Davis and they've been without their leading scorer for a month, who happens to be last year's Big West Player of the Year. He's been back for a few games now.
UCSB's strength of schedule is #100. Their out of conference schedule was tough. They played Kansas (only lost by 10), SMU, Oregon, Oregon State, Washington State, Colorado State, etc. UC Davis played absolutely no one. Their strength of schedule is #304 out of 351 teams. Last year, they were the worst team in the Big West. Their stats for offensive efficiency, field goal percentage, three point percentage, etc., are all great because of their schedule. What you don't see is they turn the ball over a lot - turnover percentage is #308 in college b-ball, and their steal percentage is #321 in college b-ball. So they turn the ball over and are one of the worst teams in the nation in steals. And they don't get any blocks. Mind you too, these stats were against some bad teams like Furman and San Jose State. Oh, and a D-2 school to start the season (who they only beat by 15).
UCSB returns from a three game road trip and they need this game to stay within the top-4 teams in the Big West, so they'd get a bye. UCSB is 9-2 at home this year and 19-5 in the last two seasons. Davis beat UCSB by six points last month, but again, UCSB was without Williams.
81% of the public is on UC Davis because they look at the two team's records. What they dont't see is UC Davis strength of schedule and the fact that UCSB has Williams back. Despite the public being all over Davis, the line has moved from -4 to -6.5. Sharps are on the Gauchos here.
UCSB needs this game much more than UC Davis. Neither team has any shot of making the tournament out right, so these games are all about Big West rankings for the tournament.
Taking UCSB -4 here. Took right when it came out and bought the half of point.
Very good write up. I have been looking at this game all day and the scheduling difference was definitely an eye opener. One thing that surprised me was that UCSB was 5-2 in conference play WITHOUT their best player Williams and only 2-3 with him. UC Davis is an awesome 3 point shooting team but if they are falling in on the road they could be in trouble...the 3 point shot is the ultimate neutralizer for any deficiencies. I do expect a close game but if the line is 6.5, im leaning davis. I would grade the line at a pick em
Very good write up. I have been looking at this game all day and the scheduling difference was definitely an eye opener. One thing that surprised me was that UCSB was 5-2 in conference play WITHOUT their best player Williams and only 2-3 with him. UC Davis is an awesome 3 point shooting team but if they are falling in on the road they could be in trouble...the 3 point shot is the ultimate neutralizer for any deficiencies. I do expect a close game but if the line is 6.5, im leaning davis. I would grade the line at a pick em
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