If you have read any of my long write-ups you know that I attack sports handicapping from a very detailed angle. I do tons of research and pour over tons of stats and matchups and I don't play very many games. I am 34-21 and up 16 units on the season and looking to close this regular season strong. That being said, I don't like systems at all because to me that are a very LAZY way to handicap. I see if a game fits a system and then BLINDLY bet it, that doesn't appeal to me at all, but that being said, I noticed a trend at the start of February and devised a system and have been watching it lately and it has been very successful.
Here is the system:
If a team ranked 180 or higher in Kenpom's ranking is FAVORED AT HOME by more than 6 points, BET AGAINST that team.
The reason I chose the ranking 180 or higher is basically because it is the bottom half of crappy team's in the country. Those teams, in my humble opinion, don't deserve to give as many points just because they have a home game as good team does (although Vegas disagrees with me and gives them plenty of credit for being home). I chose over 6 as that is a three-possession lead and many crappy teams don't win by that very often (hence why they are crappy), and for it to be that big of a spread they would have to be playing a pretty crappy team themselves.
Here is how the system did on Saturday: I have listed the Kenpom ranking of the home team and line, the margin of victory and where or not the system won:
#189 Citadel -10 LOST by 6 (system win)
#200 Loyola Maryland -8 LOST by 1 (system win)
#178 Davidson -12.5 won by 3 (system win)
#201 Manhattan -8 won by 16 (system loss - but Towson only suited 7-guys and was missing their best player)
#217 Ball State -13 won by 16 (system loss)
#214 Rice -7 LOST by 11 (system win)
#227 Samford -7 won by 6 (system win)
#205 Georgia St -9 won by 15 (system loss)
#197 Central Michigan -11.5 won by 6 (system win)
#209 Radford -9.5 won by 8 (system win)
#267 UC Irvine -14 won by 1 (system win)
#214 Cal St Fullerton -20 won by 4 (system win)
#253 Jacksonville St. -11.5 LOST by 4 (system win)
#233 Evansville -7 LOST by 2 (system win)
#198 Louisiana Lafayette -11 won by 2 (system win)
#234 Northern Arizona -7.5 won by 3 (system win)
#188 Boise St -12.5 LOST by 8 (system win)
#247 Hawaii -7 LOST by 13 (system win)
There were 18 games that qualified and the system went 15-3 including 7 straight up moneyline wins at +200 or more.
This is a system that I will be using exclusively next season in the middle of next February and wanted you fellas to be aware (I choose February as well as that is when most crappy teams are folding up shop and calling it a system and mailing in performances - add any other cliche you like)
There is one game that fits the system tomorrow and it is #227 Samford -10 against Georgia Southern. Please keep in mind that I won't be betting this game as it is "Senior Night" and the last home game of the season, I have no data on how the system does in these situations.