L2Thirst Champ Tourney Analysis/Picks

                            Record vs Top 10           Record vs 11-25          Record vs 26-50

StMarys 28-5           0 - 0/ 0 - 0                  0 - 1/ 2 - 0                 0 - 1/ 0 - 1
TexAM 22-9               0 - 0/ 2 - 3                 2 - 0/ 0 - 2                1 - 2/ 7 - 2
TTech 24-7               0 - 0/ 1 - 1                  0 - 2/ 2 - 2                1 - 0/ 2 - 1
Tennessee 27-7         0 - 0/ 3 - 2                  1 - 1/ 4 - 2                1 - 0/ 6 - 2
Wisky 26-8              1 - 0/ 0 - 2                   0 - 1/ 3 - 2                1 - 0/ 2 - 3
St. Johns 30-4          0 - 0/ 0 - 0                 0 - 0/ 0 - 0                 2 - 2/ 8 - 1
Marq 23-10              0 - 1/ 1 - 2                0 - 0/ 2 - 1                  2 - 0/ 2 - 4
Maryl 25 - 8             0 - 0/ 0 - 1                1 - 1/ 3 - 1                  0 - 0/ 3 - 3
Clem 27 - 6             0 - 0/ 1 - 0                 0 - 1/ 1 - 1                 1 - 0/ 2 - 2
Louville 27-6           0 - 1/ 0 - 2                 1 - 0/ 1 - 1                 1 - 1/ 2 - 1
Okla 20 - 12           0 - 0/ 1 - 4                  3 - 1/ 1 - 4                  1 - 0/ 3 - 3
Memph 28-5           1 - 1/ 1 - 0                  0 - 0/ 1 - 1                 1 - 0/ 1 - 0
BYU 23 - 8              0 - 1/ 0 - 1                  1 - 1/ 2 - 2                0 - 0/ 2 - 0
Baylor 19-13          1 - 1/ 0 - 2                  0 - 1/ 0 - 5                1 - 0/ 1 - 2
Mich. 25 - 9           1 - 0/ 0 - 3                 2 - 0/ 2 - 2                 1 - 1/ 4 - 0
VCU 28 - 6            0 - 0/ 0 -                     0/ 1 - 0/
Missou 21-10         0 - 1/ 2 - 2                1 - 0/ 1 - 2                 0 - 0/ 6 - 5

                             vs  Top 10               vs 11th - 25th               vs 26th - 50th

Xav 21-10             0 - 0/ 0 - 2                 0 - 1/ 0 - 0                 0 - 1/ 3 - 3
Creig 24-10            0 - 1/ 1 - 2               0 - 1/ 0 - 0                  1- 1/ 4 - 3
UCLA 22-9             0 - 0/ 1 - 1                2 - 1/ 1 - 3                 0 - 2/ 4 - 0
Georg 20-12          1 - 0/ 1 - 6               0 - 0/ 1 - 3                  0 - 2/ 3 - 2
MissSt 21 -11        0 - 0/ 0 - 6                0 - 0/ 1 - 1                0 - 0/ 6 - 3
UCONN 22-9          0 - 0/ 0 - 1               1 - 0/ 0 - 0                 0 - 2/ 6 - 1
UtahSt 25-7           0 - 0/ 0 - 0                    / 1- 0                   0 - 1/ 4 - 4
Illinois 20-11          1 - 3/ 0 - 4                0 - 0/ 3 - 1               1 - 0/ 5 - 0
Vandy 20-12           0 - 0/ 2 - 5               0 - 0/ 2 - 2                0 - 0/ 2 - 4

                            vs  Top 10           vs 11th - 25th        vs 26th - 50th

UNC 21-13            0 - 4/ 0 - 3           0 - 0/ 0 - 1            1 - 0/ 1 - 2
Drake 30-3            0 - 0/ 0 - 0                / 1 - 0 
Lips 25-9             - lost to Arkansas by 16/Kentucky by 29
McNee 27-6          - lost to Bama by 8/Miss St by 3
Norfolk 24 - 10        - lost to Baylor by 25/Tenn by 15
Bryant 23-11         - lost to STJ by 22/ hammerd by Grand C.
Col St. 25-9            0 - 0/ 0 - 1      2 - 1/ 4 - 4              2 - 2 / 4 - 4
Mount StM 22- 12   - lost to Maryland by 34/GT by 24
Akron 28-6            - lost to St. Marys by 19
Liberty 28-6           - beat McNeese by 4/Kansas St by 2
UCSan 30-4          - lost to SDSt by 5/beat Utah St by 2
Alab St. 18-15       - lost to SMU by 29 /Mizzou by 17
Mont 25-9             - lost to Oregon by 31/Utah St by 8/ Tenn by 35
UNCW 27-7           - lost to Kansas by 18/
Rob M. 26-8           - lost to WVU by 28/beat Cornell by 10
Troy 23-10            - 3 neutral (lose by 20+)
Woff 19-15            - lost to Duke by 51
High P 29-5           - played no one in the top 50
Yale 22-7               - 1 lost to Purdue by 8
Omah 22-12            - lost by 30 to Iowa St
Grand 26 - 7           -  0 - 1 neutral / played no one in top 50 otherwise
SIUE 22-11             - lost to Illinois by 32 / Indiana by 19

Plays today:

Auburn - 32 x HALF U  - Alabama St is ranked around 300th ....enough said. They don't have the horses to stay with Auburn unless they hit 3 pt at a high rate

UNCWilm +15 x   1U  - play with a lot of heart and can play at both ends of the court....TTECH is well coached and strong team but I question their head space when they play on the road (they are much stronger at home!) and I have them ripe to be upset but won't put them in parlays and see if I can get this to pay for parlays below without blowing my EXOTIC positive cashflow

Parlays: $10 each 

McNeese ML (+280) with VCU (+115) with Missouri ML for all below (multiply all plays by 1.4) 

-I have Missouri in my top 15 teams and just too strong for a Drake team who loves to play defense with Missouri seeing it all in their schedule

McNeese ML +280 with Georgia +260

VCU ml +115 with Georgia +360

McNeese ML +280 with Arkansas +185

VCU with Arkansas (same lines)

Georgia with Arkansas  (same lines)

McNeese +280 with UCSanDiego +120

Georgia +260 with UCSan

VCU +115 with UCSan

Arkansas +185 with UCSan

$100 in parlays 

GL  on your plays @Last2thirst 

Thanks Westie, U2 

I will be making a backup play on my Missouri parlay finisher...... going to use winning margin. It looks like McNeese has a strong shot at winning but lots of game left vs Clemson 

Drake to win by 1-2 pts pays +1200

Drake to win by 3 - 6 pays +800 

Drake to win by 7 - 9 pays +1500

Drake to win by 10 - 13 pays +1700 

That is the other thing I do....won't add a moneyline multiplier unless its a later game that I can know that I have some parlays completed before it or at least a strong chance.

Payouts returns:

triple Parlays: $10 each  (with Missouri ML on all parlays x 1.4)

McNeese ML (+280) with VCU (+115) =  $114.4

McNeese ML +280 with Georgia +260 = $191.50

VCU ml +115 with Georgia +360 = $108.40

McNeese ML +280 with Arkansas +185 = $151.60

VCU with Arkansas (same lines) = $85.80

Georgia with Arkansas  (same lines) = $143.60

McNeese +280 with UCSanDiego +120 = $117

Georgia +260 with UCSan = $110. 90

VCU +115 with UCSan = $69.30

Arkansas +185 with UCSan = $87.80

Lets see what develops....GEORGIA IS COOKED haha (27 - 3 hole early to Gonzaga who I featured to go to final 4 or 8  on paid pools )

I have a running theory with a friend who him and I have been doing pools since the 80's.....

Teams in the 20th century seem to be best if they are 'FRESH' and use a lot of bench ....kept their tourney and Non Conf schedules in check to not burn their players out with travel and pressure

But they should come from a basketball program or conference that challenges them....Something to watch. I told you about my 3 dark horse and Zaga was one of those picks because they fall into this scenario

He and I think the players have a little extra thrill and passion for the tourney as a result since they are dying to show what they have and this feeds into the notion why so many high ranks win in the first round too.....unfamiliarity, but high passion and motivation

The others with light neutral court and tourney travel:

St. Johns  << this is the glaring one and maybe Missouri as well....such excellent teams but they stayed out of the fray pretty much 

Houston

Arkansas 

Kansas 

Maryland

Missouri

Clemson << didn't help them today

Xavier

Vandy

Miss St.

Tough watching this Missouri game....

They have been off all night and credit to Drake for stepping up. I only put a toe in the water and going to continue to be cautious and not press

i am analyzing who is knocked out and what see the are after first few days: - I wonder if tomorrow is different?

#5

#6

#7

#8

#9

#10

#11 x 2

#12

----------------------------------------------------

Surviving high seeds > #11 and a #12

----------------------------------------------------

Lost as expected > all seeds #13 or worse ....assuming TTech hangs on

Plays today:

 Auburn - 32 x HALF U   NO

UNCWilm +15 x 1U    ....made HALF U bank on sides today

Lost $100 on longshot parlays with McNeese keyed by my triple key did not fire (Missouri)    

March Tourney Record now =  5 - 3 ATS/Totals

Exotic Bets:  = +$32

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Thoughts for tomorrow:

Alabama TOTAL > TEASED UNDER as a KEY ... can they score 95 ....sure.....will R. Morris score 75 ....don't think they can get to as many scramble balls or rebounds to come down the court and score on those possessions....otherwise, they would likely have to shot 45% or even higher and with the long arms/foot speed of the Tide....I doubt that 

-is Alabama motivated to score 100? I think their team needs to rotate their talent because to go long in this tourney, they have a pathway to get to the final and that means NOT BLOWING OUT every weak team

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Lipscomb > this team knows how to play ball on both sides of the court .....  like UNDER here and + pts for Lipscomb..... Iowa St knows they can win a offensive up and down game but they are going to need play strong on both ends to win their side of the bracket to get to elite 8

-Iowa St can score 80 here and won't need to  but I cannot see Lipscomb scoring more than 65

Good TEASER pick >  UNDER and +PTS  for Lipscomb but split that up 

Betting straight, I like the UNDER best and better than Alabama UNDER

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Memphis +1.5  << this line does not make sense!! Name me any team that has a win vs 4 good teams from 4 different excellent conferences in the country?? THAT'S MEMPHIS! 

-while these two teams will play a humdinger, I cannot see Col St controlling Memphis but I can see Memphis doing the opposite and it might come from their defense leading to their offense!

DEFINITE TEASER KEY >> probably more valuable than taking them straight up but if you don't like teaser, its a good value bet 

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Duke-MSTM > like the UNDER here .... 85 - 52 type of game and Duke may not need to score that much >> MTSM defense is quite good and if they try to just jack up 3 pts, I am not sure how many they will sink because Duke's perimeter defense is excellent and overall, they are one of the best defenses in the country

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Troy - Kentucky .....like the OVER  a lot ...Troy can play and should get 70  - Kentucky will have fun and score over 80 since its what they do....score and have fun

Will look at later games tomorrow....

TEASER 5 pt: - $40 each: - return $44 profit per win

Key Memphis +6.5 with Ole Miss +6.5 with:

-I spoke in raving terms already for Memphis

-Ole Miss was equal and placed above Kentucky in the SEC standings and took care of business vs all styles of play.....there is nothing that UNC can throw at them that they have not seen and they can do everything

-if you are noticing....ACC teams are falling off at this tourney 

-Ole Miss beat Memphis by the way.....by 16 pts !

- will make a couple of wining margin plays for $25 each just to support what I have

Play those two with:

1. Lipscomb +19.5

2. Over 149.5 Lipscomb

3. Duke Under 146

4. Kentucky - 6. 5 with Over 147.5 (4 way pays +1U profit)

5. Under Arizona 171.5

6. Oklahoma Over 142 > this is not your 2024 UCONN defense!

7.  Under Mich St 157.5

8. Liberty + 12

Bets to clawback some $ if one of the KEYS has a  funky day:

Winning margin bet $25 > Colorado St to win by 7 - 9 pts @ +900 > returns $225 profit

Winning margin bet $25 >  UNC to win by 7 - 9 pts @ 900 > returns same profit

Don't think there is a strong upset play candidate today for moneyline parlays

Winning margin bet $20 > 

Memphis is just so much physically stronger and in shape.... ...we should see a close game until the second half last 7 minutes and I expect Memphis to takeover by then

Might be wrong on Memphis as they are flat in the 2nd half ....I trust Penny's preparation like he showed facing 4 tough conference teams through the season....

Two days in a row, I pick a cold shooting team.....fuck! 

Frustrating.

Down $320 on Teasers....clawed back $225 so that's enough.

Only one Play I might lean on 'quietly' and don't recommend you follow me..... Arizona Under .....think the score in this game could land 90 -77 with a hackfest but if it plays out the way I think it can....I see a 85 - 75 type of score.

I don't want that total to drop below 167 ....so its now just watch it and wait for as long as possible to see if I can get even higher 

I do like Michigan St Under 152.5 ...they are a terrible 3pt shooting team so I can see them hanging on their hat to scoring off of sets and inside play for 2 pts at a time. Will Bryant hack them to hope their 3 pters fall in late? That is the question

Sparty UNDER 152.5 x 1U  << this is the one I want while Arizona total brews

If I take Zona later, it will be for a HALF U now that I have played this 

I ended up playing the Arizona Under and so yesterday 2 - 0 ATS/SIDES +1.5 U but, lost around $100 on exotic bets

March Tourney Record now =  7 - 3 ATS/Totals

Exotic Bets:  = -$63

Some observations and will update who is alive with their data vs Top 50 teams and neutral court stats: 

- IF you watched Sparty - Bryant play last night, you would have been treated to one of the best up and down ATHLETIC games of basketball you will EVER see.... I suggest you Youtube the game and watch it.... unreal how much speed, heart and controlled frenetic basketball was played ....guys were flying and also fearless going to the hoop and crashing down and at one point, blood was spilled as a result (that player came back and played with passion). IT WAS COMPLETE JOY TO WATCH ! They pushed the pace the whole game!!

-whomever is going to play Sparty is going to have a handful - size, passing and courage....and they can play defense!! What is also scary is, it looks like teams have scouted them on scoring inside via driving the ball or using big men around the basket and they NOW CAN HIT THE OUTSIDE 3 PT SHOT effectively!!! ..... I was blown away how many wide open 3 pters they were hitting

SPARTY looks the best in the tourney besides Duke from what I have seen ....and Florida too ....Norfolk tried to play frenetically like Bryant and were hanging in but Florida's size and precision like Sparty took over

If Florida and Sparty meet, I will take the points with Sparty if the number is higher than +5 .....but I would also bet Florida to win by -10 or higher in winning margin ( BECAUSE, if Sparty does not hit their 3 pts, then they could get blown away)...based on what I see, it seems like Izzo is asking his players to let it fly and they did many times in the Bryant game (they are going to need to do so, so coach is smart and I am an Izzo fan big time because he has a 'go for it' coaching approach and that fit with my own playing pro/coaching philosophy which was to  take risks/game prepare against the opposite coach might not have not anticipated. I really respect coaches in all sports who do this and Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan - 49ers/Sean McVay of the La Rams are in that mode too - INNOVATE!  )

Of the remaining 32 teams, here is a breakdown of the best and worst records vs Top Teams/Top 50  (+ neutral court records vs Top 50 teams updated)

BEST RECORDs:

Auburn > 15 - 4  vs Top 50 teams

Florida > 16 - 5  vs Top 50 teams

Tennessee > 15 - 7 vs Top 50 teams

Alabama > 17 - 10  vs Top 50 teams

THE REST of the BEST

St.Johns  10 - 3

Mich. St  11 - 4

Duke     9 - 3      

Houston    10 - 4

New Mexico  9 - 4

UCONN   8 - 4

UCLA   11 - 7

Michigan  10 - 6

TexAM   12 - 9

Illinois   11 - 8

Wonky records:

Baylor   4 - 11

Purdue  8 - 11

Arizona  7 - 10

**everyone else is around .500 record 

Specialties in my Matchup Charts to Consider:  

Michigan is 4 - 1 on neutral courts against all in Top 50

(Michigan is also 4 - 0 vs teams ranked 26th - 50th >> that record will only help them if they can get past Texas AM who is ranked 11 - 25th and if Creighton upsets Auburn )

Baylors is  0 - 7 vs teams in the Top 25 this year and have the daunting task of playing against DUKE ranked #1 now in the DR Ratings I use!

Maryland, a team ranked in the TOP 10 in DR Ratings is only 6 - 5 vs teams ranked 26th - 50th > they perform better vs Top 25 teams !

St Johns is 8 - 1 vs teams ranked 26th - 50th which is exactly the type of team they are facing in Arkansas  and Arky is 1 - 4 vs teams in the Top 10

Tennessee  is  7 - 2 vs teams ranked 26th - 50th and that is who they are playing today in UCLA

Texas AM  is  2 - 0 on neutral courts vs teams ranked 11th - 25 BUT, 0 - 2 vs teams ranked 11th - 25th during regular season

Alabama is 7 - 2 vs teams ranked 26th - 50th during the season and 8 - 1 vs teams ranked 11th - 25th (St Marys rank dropped from 31st to 22nd in DR Ratings)

Kentucky is 4 - 1 vs teams ranked 11th - 25th which is their opponent in Illinois coming up..... (for the record Illinois is 3 - 1 vs teams ranked 11th - 25th which is Kentucky)

Michigan St is only 4 - 3 on the season vs teams ranked 26th - 50th and their opponent is ranked in that category ...they are phenomenal vs high ranked teams!

Houston is 4 - 1 vs teams ranked 11th - 25th and that is Gonzaga 

Auburn is 10 - 0 vs teams ranked 26th - 50th to end the season, which is Creighton

Florida is 6 - 1 vs teams ranked 26th - 50th which is UCONN

Oregon is only 1 - 4 vs teams ranked 11th - 25th which is their next opponent in Arizona

**Gonzaga has not faced a team in the TOP 10 all year long .....which would surprise a lot of people!!

L2T.......

My next set of plays: Exotics

ML Parlay (4.2 Units = $500): St. Johns with Auburn with with Florida > pays 1.96

Also HALF U more  ($60)> add Tennessee and Alabama > pays 4x > returns +$125 more

Upsets: $20 each

Arkansas ML  3.5 x Auburn 1.25 x Florida 1.19 x Tennessee 1.44x Alabama 1.43 > pays 10.7 x $20

St.Johns 1.32 x Creighton 4.2 x same next 3 above > pays 13.60 x

St. Johns 1.32 x Auburn 1.25 x UCONN 4.9 x Tenn and Alabama ml > pays 16.6 x

TEASERS: 5 pt > $20 EACH each > pay $40 profit return

KEY: Duke -7 with Houston Even with Florida -4.5:

1. Colorado St +12

2. New Mexico +12

3. Texas AM  +2

4. Drake - TTECH Under 131

5. Under Gonzaga 145.5

6. Under UCLA  136.5

7. Creighton +13.5

8. Illinois Over 165

9. Ole Miss +10

10. Oregon +9

Big Parlay is done...shiiiiittt

Upsets: $20 each

Arkansas ML  3.5   x Auburn 1.25    x Florida 1.19 x Tennessee 1.44x   Alabama 1.43 > pays 10.7 x $20 > pays $214 profit

TEASERS: 5 pt > $20 EACH each > pay $40 profit return

KEY: Duke -7 with Houston Even   with Florida -4.5:

1. Colorado St +12

2. New Mexico +12

3. Texas AM  +2      NO 

4. Drake - TTECH Under 131  NO

5. Under Gonzaga 145.5   NO 

6. Under UCLA  136.5  YES

7. Creighton +13.5   YES 

8. Illinois Over 165

9. Ole Miss +10

10. Oregon +9

Lets get some cash back tomorrow....

Most of my chart observations proved true today > only exception is St Johns

Still true and now adjusted stats:

Specialties in my Matchup Charts to Consider:  

Auburn is 11 - 0 vs teams ranked 26th - 50th after beating Creighton 

Michigan is 5 - 1 on neutral courts against all in Top 50

Tennessee  is  8 - 2 vs teams ranked 26th - 50th

Houston is 5 - 1 vs teams ranked 11th - 25th now, after beating Gonzaga 

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 Tomorrow:

Baylor is  0 - 7 vs teams in the Top 25 this year and have the daunting task of playing against DUKE ranked #1 now in the DR Ratings I use!

Maryland, a team ranked in the TOP 10 in DR Ratings is only 6 - 5 vs teams ranked 26th - 50th > they perform better vs Top 25 teams !

Alabama is 7 - 2 vs teams ranked 26th - 50th during the season and 8 - 1 vs teams ranked 11th - 25th (St Marys rank dropped from 31st to 22nd in DR Ratings)

Kentucky is 4 - 1 vs teams ranked 11th - 25th which is their opponent in Illinois coming up..... (for the record Illinois is 3 - 1 vs teams ranked 11th - 25th which is Kentucky)

Michigan St is only 4 - 3 on the season vs teams ranked 26th - 50th and their opponent is ranked in that category ...they are phenomenal vs high ranked teams!

Florida is 6 - 1 vs teams ranked 26th - 50th which is UCONN

Oregon is only 1 - 4 vs teams ranked 11th - 25th which is their next opponent in Arizona

Wished I would have played on the 2 trends tonight but already have too much $$ hanging...

nfl

week = 2 and F and tpS(playoffs) = 0.0 and p:D and ats streak<1 and o:PRSW<9 and line>-12 and p:points<20 and op:points<31

Only one Side today:

Alabama - 5.5 x 1U

- Bama is 15 - 3 winner vs teams ranked 11th - 50th

- St Mary's is only 3 - 3 and 3 of those games were vs Gonzaga

Teaser  5 pt HALF U pays +1U profit

> St Mary's +10.5 with UNDER Kentucky 172.5 with Ole Miss +10.5 with Sparty -2

See posts above (parlay) for other bets hanging > just need Bama win to complete a parlay