Season Record 187-175-3, +5.300 units
Yesterday: 2-1, +1.775 units
A solid 2-1 night thanks to SF and the under. The Dons are gaining confidence and may be a nice play the next few games.
OVER DRAKE/CREIGHTON 133.5 (2.25 UNITS) - I've ridden Creighton overs like a jockey on a Triple Crown winner most of the year, particularly at home. Oddsmakers just haven't caught up to this team, which traditionally is a slower paced, methodical and cerebral team. They are 7-0 to the OVER at home this year with an average score of 82-64. This Bluejay team is deep as 11 players average double figure minutes so it's not one of those teams that relies on one or two offensive weapons and hits a lull when they come out of the game. In fact, last game, their only two players to score more than 10 points were players off the bench in Cavel Witter and Booker Woodfox, who went for 21 and 20 respectively. The BJays press and like to create turnovers. They rank 19th in the country in creating turnovers (turnover %) yet are vulnerable to the press as they rank 224th in turnover % on offense. Meanwhile, Drake ranks 4th in the country in creating turnovers. To sum that all up, you should see a lot of turnovers leading to some easy baskets tonight to go along with a fast tempo. Both of these teams are tremendously efficient on offense. Drake ranks 30th nationally in Offensive Efficiency at 112.2 while Creighton ranks 76th at 106.8. At home, Creighton is way more efficient averaging an OE of 116.1. For Drake, Adam Emmenecker has been doing an outstanding all around job at PG. In fact his style is conducive to a faster pace as he has 36 offensive rebounds already which is unreal from a 6'1" PG. While Emmenecker likes to crash the offensive boards from the PG spot, it often leaves Drake vulnerable to the fast break so look for Creighton to push the ball to create fast break opportunities when Emmemecker is unsuccessful on the offensive boards. The environment will be simply electric this evening. I assume most of you have not had the opportunity to visit the Quest Center in Omaha. I have been there and I assure you it is one of the best and largest arenas in the entire country. While some of the MVC schools play in smaller venues, Creighton plays in front of 17,500 fans and the place is loud. The adrenaline will be pumping, which can only lead to more tempo. The only slight drawbacks in my mind are that Drake is without leading scorer Josh Young, but in the 3 games without Young, their pace numbers have not diminished and their OE is close to the same. The second drawback is that Dana Altamn is one of my favorite game coach tacticians in the country and I look for him to implement a zone defense quite a bit tonight. Drake has rarely if ever been zoned. They play somewhat of a European style of offense which frees up shooters for the three ball and they will have to adjust a little to run efficiently. As such, I am leaving it at a 2.25 unit play instead of more.