BYU is lights out from long…2nd most attempted 3’s in the nation and hitting @ 36% clip…home % prob higher. They’re also #20 in KP defense…solid.
Here’s where I see this run into a problem…Houston is ranked #11 in 3pt defense, allowing just 28%. This is no fluke, 2 of 3 guards are physical and up in your face defenders. I really can’t see BYU make more than 32%…midpoint worst case imo? Best case 30%. On top of this , BYUs guards aren’t the best ball handlers…BIG ? with Houston guards that can create TOs. I give Houston guards a -3.5 pt advantage (mid calc)
**Most will say ISU has good defense, and BYU smoked them…ISU is ranked #182 in 3pt defense…huge gap.
Another issue for BYU is interior offense…Their 4/5 spot averages less than 15 ppg COMBINED. I give Houston bigs a -2.5 point advantage (low calc)
BYU gets a big home court advantage … -2.5 BUT Houston’s overall defense I think will offset from the crowd noise or participation… -0 home court imo.
I think Houston can win by -6 or more
I think by far this will be BYUs TOUGHEST game @ home.
BYU is lights out from long…2nd most attempted 3’s in the nation and hitting @ 36% clip…home % prob higher. They’re also #20 in KP defense…solid.
Here’s where I see this run into a problem…Houston is ranked #11 in 3pt defense, allowing just 28%. This is no fluke, 2 of 3 guards are physical and up in your face defenders. I really can’t see BYU make more than 32%…midpoint worst case imo? Best case 30%. On top of this , BYUs guards aren’t the best ball handlers…BIG ? with Houston guards that can create TOs. I give Houston guards a -3.5 pt advantage (mid calc)
**Most will say ISU has good defense, and BYU smoked them…ISU is ranked #182 in 3pt defense…huge gap.
Another issue for BYU is interior offense…Their 4/5 spot averages less than 15 ppg COMBINED. I give Houston bigs a -2.5 point advantage (low calc)
BYU gets a big home court advantage … -2.5 BUT Houston’s overall defense I think will offset from the crowd noise or participation… -0 home court imo.
I think Houston can win by -6 or more
I think by far this will be BYUs TOUGHEST game @ home.
Another thing to add…Key determination to this game is PACE. If Houston runs their style of offense, they’ll win easily….But if they try to run with BYU this will be closer than we think.
Another thing to add…Key determination to this game is PACE. If Houston runs their style of offense, they’ll win easily….But if they try to run with BYU this will be closer than we think.
I agree. I like this Byu team. I dont know - they're fun. But I'm with you. I think Byu might get strangled on offense here by their toughest test yet. If Houston cooperated at all on offense, I think they win by 7-12.
I agree. I like this Byu team. I dont know - they're fun. But I'm with you. I think Byu might get strangled on offense here by their toughest test yet. If Houston cooperated at all on offense, I think they win by 7-12.
It’s on ESPN+ for $10, cancel anytime…this game is better than any movie out now imo.
@buffer
You’re right, but Houston just seems logical.
Houston losing B2B road games recently is prob why this line is where it’s at. They really haven’t beat any one great on the road this year Plus LJ Cryer has been awful on offense….-2.5 seems feels like a right spot. But, logic and stats is pointing towards Houston for me.
It’s on ESPN+ for $10, cancel anytime…this game is better than any movie out now imo.
@buffer
You’re right, but Houston just seems logical.
Houston losing B2B road games recently is prob why this line is where it’s at. They really haven’t beat any one great on the road this year Plus LJ Cryer has been awful on offense….-2.5 seems feels like a right spot. But, logic and stats is pointing towards Houston for me.
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