Some of you may remember me... but used to post quite often here back in the early to mid 2010s... had a couple kids, didn't really bet as much and now back into it...
It's early, but here are some intriguing Win Total/Week 1 bets I've seen.. I go to Vegas 1-2x/mo, so will be starting to make some bets this month...
Going off numbers here until I see the sheets in Vegas https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/futures-and-props/ncaaf-team-wins
Missouri Over 8, +105
Would have liked 7.5 here, but fine with the 8. Return good amount on both sides and think the schedule sets up nicely... Only a few sure fire Ws- Wyoming, SE Miss State, Troy.. but they also get rebuilding WVU at home, Ole Miss, SCe at home, @Vandy, @UK, Tenn at home and Ark on neutral. They miss Bama, Auburn, LSU!!! They probably lose @UGA, but their next toughest game is probably Florida at home. 9-3/10-2 seems like a way more likely option than 7-5 (with 8 being the push) and at + money, I'm in. Would also throw a bit on them winning the East
Michigan State Over 7.5, -150
Lot of juice, but love the 7.5 here vs the 8 (which then probably becomes a no play). 10/11 offensive starters for MSU last year lost multiple games due to injury.. at one point they were down their top 7 WR and 3 of their top 6 OL. Can't do anything with that. D finished #2 in S&P behind only Clemson and returns their entire DL (#1 Rush D in country) and 5 starters in the back 7. Home schedule is also dogshit: Tulsa, Western Michigan, ASU, IU, PSU, Illinois, Maryland. Add in @Rutgers and that's semi-locked in wins right there. Even if they drop PSU, they only need to win 1 of @NW, @Wisconsin, @OSU, @UM for this to cash.
Colorado Over 4.5, +145
Started 5-0 and then lost 7 straight, which coincided with their do everything WR Shenault gettin hurt. He's back, as is 8 starters on offense. Need to get to 5 wins. OK- CSU, Air Force seems like 2. Don't think they can knock off Neb in week 2 at home? Or beat @ASU or UA at home? @UCLA is certainly winable. If this # is 5, I'm probably holding off, but pretty good + $ at 4.5, this seems doable with what's returning
Thoughts? What others should I be looking at more closely?