Basically, you should already "assume" this. If betting heavy dogs, you already know that they will not win often, hence the larger payout. Whereas if you bet heavy favorites, they will hit more often but the payout will be less. With that taken into consideration, if you're going to bet dogs, you have to be MORE selective in your choices so you profit from your betting heavy underdogs strategy. If you need to see the math on the required win percentage to be a long term winner from betting heavy underdogs, here's a website. It tells you how to calculate the percentage of bets you need win according to different large, positive moneylines.
Basically, you should already "assume" this. If betting heavy dogs, you already know that they will not win often, hence the larger payout. Whereas if you bet heavy favorites, they will hit more often but the payout will be less. With that taken into consideration, if you're going to bet dogs, you have to be MORE selective in your choices so you profit from your betting heavy underdogs strategy. If you need to see the math on the required win percentage to be a long term winner from betting heavy underdogs, here's a website. It tells you how to calculate the percentage of bets you need win according to different large, positive moneylines.
Stupid copied and pasted link didn't show.. Google or search for:
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Stupid copied and pasted link didn't show.. Google or search for:
bettingpros + article + break even win for sports betting
Just copy, paste and search all of that together to get to the article..
Big dog lines that is ^^^^^
+1.5 adds comfort...... dont look for the home run bet. be reasonable and add favor to your bet
Big dog lines that is ^^^^^
+1.5 adds comfort...... dont look for the home run bet. be reasonable and add favor to your bet
From an,old vet here...been,doing uaing the following strategy for years.
Applies for lines -190 and over.
1. Always play the dog, unless the line the line moves more than 10 cents down..
Otherwise play the favorite -1.5
Also....
Play all dogs when line is -300 or more.
ABSOLUTELY NEVER PLAY +1.5 lines!! There's no value in them over the long run. Those +1.5 lines are like playing collwge football 10pt teasers.....for suckers only.
Backtest this baseball theory on Scoresandodds this year and last year. You'll see. Last night....O's and Royals great examples.
From an,old vet here...been,doing uaing the following strategy for years.
Applies for lines -190 and over.
1. Always play the dog, unless the line the line moves more than 10 cents down..
Otherwise play the favorite -1.5
Also....
Play all dogs when line is -300 or more.
ABSOLUTELY NEVER PLAY +1.5 lines!! There's no value in them over the long run. Those +1.5 lines are like playing collwge football 10pt teasers.....for suckers only.
Backtest this baseball theory on Scoresandodds this year and last year. You'll see. Last night....O's and Royals great examples.
Betting large underdogs will 97 percent of the time never be profitable .. if you get lucky and are selective.. you can hit a high enough percent to be profitable.. but goodluck with that.. anything over +160 as an underdog typically is throw your money away games .. imo.. as for taking points. +1.5 if you wanna live off huge underdogs to lose by 1 run goodluck .. that typically won’t be profitable either
Betting large underdogs will 97 percent of the time never be profitable .. if you get lucky and are selective.. you can hit a high enough percent to be profitable.. but goodluck with that.. anything over +160 as an underdog typically is throw your money away games .. imo.. as for taking points. +1.5 if you wanna live off huge underdogs to lose by 1 run goodluck .. that typically won’t be profitable either
ABSOLUTELY NEVER PLAY +1.5 lines!! There's no value in them over the long run. Those +1.5 lines are like playing collwge football 10pt teasers.....for suckers only.
Never think of the juice on +1.5 as a short price. Right now, Arizona is +157 at the Cubs, the +1.5 run line is -130. That is not 30 cents juice, it is 87 cents juice to attempt an EXACT result.
Would you pay -187 to try to hit any other prediction EXACTLY right? I doubt it, but for the +1.5 to do you any good the D-backs MUST lose by EXACTLY one run.
Foolish wager
ABSOLUTELY NEVER PLAY +1.5 lines!! There's no value in them over the long run. Those +1.5 lines are like playing collwge football 10pt teasers.....for suckers only.
Never think of the juice on +1.5 as a short price. Right now, Arizona is +157 at the Cubs, the +1.5 run line is -130. That is not 30 cents juice, it is 87 cents juice to attempt an EXACT result.
Would you pay -187 to try to hit any other prediction EXACTLY right? I doubt it, but for the +1.5 to do you any good the D-backs MUST lose by EXACTLY one run.
Foolish wager
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