its crazy time to end the season as seen by yesterday’s results....I kinda think the teams and players put as much emphasis on these games as us gamblers do. Kinda looks to me like the teams that are in the playoffs are using this as rest instead of going all out for positioning. It makes sense to if you think about it as nowadays teams can win in the road and home court isn’t that huge of an adyas it used to be, pretty much whoever gets hit from 3 will win regardless of where they play.
This total is ridiculous 204 is the new 186. maybe Pacers find their defense tonight.
its crazy time to end the season as seen by yesterday’s results....I kinda think the teams and players put as much emphasis on these games as us gamblers do. Kinda looks to me like the teams that are in the playoffs are using this as rest instead of going all out for positioning. It makes sense to if you think about it as nowadays teams can win in the road and home court isn’t that huge of an adyas it used to be, pretty much whoever gets hit from 3 will win regardless of where they play.
This total is ridiculous 204 is the new 186. maybe Pacers find their defense tonight.
I kinda feel if you come within 10pts of hitting an under you should get half your bet back, they are that hard to win
I miss the days of seeing the 190 -192 game totals with the Jazz..Spurs.....Come playoff time...Unders should have great value...You will see Totals in some series...start at 225 in game 1..and by game 5-6 drop down to 216-217ish...
I kinda feel if you come within 10pts of hitting an under you should get half your bet back, they are that hard to win
I miss the days of seeing the 190 -192 game totals with the Jazz..Spurs.....Come playoff time...Unders should have great value...You will see Totals in some series...start at 225 in game 1..and by game 5-6 drop down to 216-217ish...
I hope so I too miss good defensive battles with hard fouls, this ole matador defense is for the birds... sportsbooks used to have a bet "largest lead over/under 16pts" in almost every game now that bet doesn't exist
I hope so I too miss good defensive battles with hard fouls, this ole matador defense is for the birds... sportsbooks used to have a bet "largest lead over/under 16pts" in almost every game now that bet doesn't exist
Dave - 100% agree that probably some good line value early in playoffs for unders.
BTW, I know it DOES NOT FEEL LIKE IT, but so far this season in NBA:
574 overs
573 unders
It feels like games are ALL overs - but give the books some credit lol.
Good luck to all - love your stuff SW - can't wait for the next 33 bagger lol.
- btw loved your OVER on sunday night with Conley/Val playing - analysis and gameflow was SPOT ON.
Even though Over/Unders are 50-50....Its hard to take an under in a game.....as most win by a few points and you are squeezing for that under...or it takes a 45 point 4th quarter to get the under...Unders are never easy...very rarely do you see an easy under. So many 70+ point quarters.. in the NBA...
Dave - 100% agree that probably some good line value early in playoffs for unders.
BTW, I know it DOES NOT FEEL LIKE IT, but so far this season in NBA:
574 overs
573 unders
It feels like games are ALL overs - but give the books some credit lol.
Good luck to all - love your stuff SW - can't wait for the next 33 bagger lol.
- btw loved your OVER on sunday night with Conley/Val playing - analysis and gameflow was SPOT ON.
Even though Over/Unders are 50-50....Its hard to take an under in a game.....as most win by a few points and you are squeezing for that under...or it takes a 45 point 4th quarter to get the under...Unders are never easy...very rarely do you see an easy under. So many 70+ point quarters.. in the NBA...
thanks kvs you are a good dude, that's a sobering stat b/c it sure doesn't feel that way, wonder what the avg score is nowadays?
my buddy Oz bets nuthin but overs and wins a lot, I can't go that dark side b/c as soon as I do unders will start coming and then I'll be bat shitt crazy and in the looney bin
thanks kvs you are a good dude, that's a sobering stat b/c it sure doesn't feel that way, wonder what the avg score is nowadays?
my buddy Oz bets nuthin but overs and wins a lot, I can't go that dark side b/c as soon as I do unders will start coming and then I'll be bat shitt crazy and in the looney bin
Even though Over/Unders are 50-50....Its hard to take an under in a game.....as most win by a few points and you are squeezing for that under...or it takes a 45 point 4th quarter to get the under...Unders are never easy...very rarely do you see an easy under. So many 70+ point quarters.. in the NBA...
I was just thinking I'd imagine those overs go over by at least 10pts or more whereas the unders are by a bucket or 2...overs seem like stealing and an easy play whereas unders feel to me like actually capping, it's probably flawed thinking on my part but hitting an under feels pretty good whereas hitting an over doesn't take to many brains, no offense to everyone cashin on those 40pts in 5min games puke
Even though Over/Unders are 50-50....Its hard to take an under in a game.....as most win by a few points and you are squeezing for that under...or it takes a 45 point 4th quarter to get the under...Unders are never easy...very rarely do you see an easy under. So many 70+ point quarters.. in the NBA...
I was just thinking I'd imagine those overs go over by at least 10pts or more whereas the unders are by a bucket or 2...overs seem like stealing and an easy play whereas unders feel to me like actually capping, it's probably flawed thinking on my part but hitting an under feels pretty good whereas hitting an over doesn't take to many brains, no offense to everyone cashin on those 40pts in 5min games puke
This is same as O/U in NE Patriots games for years.
The total would be 47/48/48.5 - and to win under score would be close 24-17, 24-21, 31-10, etc. but overs crushed it.
But, doesn't matter - the line is the MEDIAN not the AVERAGE.
Yes, you are correct OVERS probably beating by bigger margin on average (obviously b/c 3OT games beat line by 50 but don't beat unders by 50).
But, doesn't matter - all that matters is literally they are 50-50 so if you asked a BLIND SQUIRREL - he would have much success with overs and unders.
But, yes UNDERS cause a lot more hair loss and increase ulcers than taking OVERS lol.
This is same as O/U in NE Patriots games for years.
The total would be 47/48/48.5 - and to win under score would be close 24-17, 24-21, 31-10, etc. but overs crushed it.
But, doesn't matter - the line is the MEDIAN not the AVERAGE.
Yes, you are correct OVERS probably beating by bigger margin on average (obviously b/c 3OT games beat line by 50 but don't beat unders by 50).
But, doesn't matter - all that matters is literally they are 50-50 so if you asked a BLIND SQUIRREL - he would have much success with overs and unders.
But, yes UNDERS cause a lot more hair loss and increase ulcers than taking OVERS lol.
good example tonight, with 6min left in 1st qtr Cavs/Suns totaled 16pts for what should be a sub 45pt 1st qtr and really should lock up an under 224 game...but a flurry to end 1st qtr and now total sits at 112 w/ 3min left in half
good example tonight, with 6min left in 1st qtr Cavs/Suns totaled 16pts for what should be a sub 45pt 1st qtr and really should lock up an under 224 game...but a flurry to end 1st qtr and now total sits at 112 w/ 3min left in half
good points kvs, I'm stubborn though and will ride my unders until I die, matter of fact they'll probably put "He finally got his under" on my tombstone
good points kvs, I'm stubborn though and will ride my unders until I die, matter of fact they'll probably put "He finally got his under" on my tombstone
I wonder how books come up with the 1st half totals....If a total is 220...Very rarely is the 1st half total 110. I see books throw out a total of 104 sometime and then 114 sometime.. At least in college you know how they come up with the 1st half totals, which is always 8-10 points less than the full game totals.
I wonder how books come up with the 1st half totals....If a total is 220...Very rarely is the 1st half total 110. I see books throw out a total of 104 sometime and then 114 sometime.. At least in college you know how they come up with the 1st half totals, which is always 8-10 points less than the full game totals.
line and o/u - in a close line - the 2H has HIGHER chance of fouling at end
team stats - some teams "lock down" in 4Q more frequently than others
but yes it is "weird" in college it is always 65 for 1H and like 75 for 2H for a 140 total - but in NBA - not true.
But, I am willing to bet almost all teams are 50-50 on 1H overs/unders (or the distribution is "normal") - obviously some team will crush one way but that is expected with a "normal" coin flip too.
line and o/u - in a close line - the 2H has HIGHER chance of fouling at end
team stats - some teams "lock down" in 4Q more frequently than others
but yes it is "weird" in college it is always 65 for 1H and like 75 for 2H for a 140 total - but in NBA - not true.
But, I am willing to bet almost all teams are 50-50 on 1H overs/unders (or the distribution is "normal") - obviously some team will crush one way but that is expected with a "normal" coin flip too.
There's the 70 point quarter in the Hornets/Jazz game.....Took 2 bad quarters...to keep this game under.....You are really never out of it with an over...
There's the 70 point quarter in the Hornets/Jazz game.....Took 2 bad quarters...to keep this game under.....You are really never out of it with an over...
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