For example, if you're leaning toward Team A +7 on Monday, but you're holding out for +7.5, then on Tuesday the line moves to +6.5 which is the opposite direction from what you wanted, that it's a bad omen. Even though your own numbers still favor Team A +4, which still offers a 2.5 point cushion, under the theory, you're suppose to skip the bet. You'd lose out on getting down a lot of bets over the course of the season, but I've never tracked such situations to know if the advice really saves money or not. Why or why not follow this advice? Couldn't you just pretend that you never saw +7 and that the line opened at +6.5 and go ahead with it if it still meets your betting criteria? The counter argument would be that it's probably not going to reverse in the other direction, or certainly not by a full point, so you'd better act now before it moves even more in that direction, which is far more likely than a reversal.
For example, if you're leaning toward Team A +7 on Monday, but you're holding out for +7.5, then on Tuesday the line moves to +6.5 which is the opposite direction from what you wanted, that it's a bad omen. Even though your own numbers still favor Team A +4, which still offers a 2.5 point cushion, under the theory, you're suppose to skip the bet. You'd lose out on getting down a lot of bets over the course of the season, but I've never tracked such situations to know if the advice really saves money or not. Why or why not follow this advice? Couldn't you just pretend that you never saw +7 and that the line opened at +6.5 and go ahead with it if it still meets your betting criteria? The counter argument would be that it's probably not going to reverse in the other direction, or certainly not by a full point, so you'd better act now before it moves even more in that direction, which is far more likely than a reversal.
In response to your question...if I was in your shoes in this situation and seen the line drop from +7 to a +6.5 it gives me cause for concern
1) In situations like this normally a HUGE amount came in on the underdog hence the drop to -6.5 from -7 and they want to hopefully get the bet total back to even of possible
2) The reason I stay away from ANY dog that is a 1/2 point off a key number of 1,2, 3 and 6 (some people's key numbers vary, I only consider a "key" number to be equal to an actual NFL scoring play, hence a touch down is not included because it's a TWO part scoring play, touch down plus PAT) is because I feel the sports books put out these lines to "entice" people. the "hooks" are used to eliminate ANY chance of a push and forcing the sports book to refund your money. You know this is the LAST thing they want to do.
3) I always pass when I see a line drop. Hope this helps. Good luck the rest of the way.
In response to your question...if I was in your shoes in this situation and seen the line drop from +7 to a +6.5 it gives me cause for concern
1) In situations like this normally a HUGE amount came in on the underdog hence the drop to -6.5 from -7 and they want to hopefully get the bet total back to even of possible
2) The reason I stay away from ANY dog that is a 1/2 point off a key number of 1,2, 3 and 6 (some people's key numbers vary, I only consider a "key" number to be equal to an actual NFL scoring play, hence a touch down is not included because it's a TWO part scoring play, touch down plus PAT) is because I feel the sports books put out these lines to "entice" people. the "hooks" are used to eliminate ANY chance of a push and forcing the sports book to refund your money. You know this is the LAST thing they want to do.
3) I always pass when I see a line drop. Hope this helps. Good luck the rest of the way.
It's a non issue, I would not put anything into that at all.
Unless it is a big line movement of like 2.5 points or more like we saw on Bucs VS Steelers monday night then I'd think twice but these are few and far between , small movements are meaningless.
The one important thing is to get to key number like 7, but even then those numbers don't come into play very often but will once in a while and will cost you when they do if you fail to get that key number like 7.
You always want to try and get to key number but I would not let that determine if I make the play.
It's a non issue, I would not put anything into that at all.
Unless it is a big line movement of like 2.5 points or more like we saw on Bucs VS Steelers monday night then I'd think twice but these are few and far between , small movements are meaningless.
The one important thing is to get to key number like 7, but even then those numbers don't come into play very often but will once in a while and will cost you when they do if you fail to get that key number like 7.
You always want to try and get to key number but I would not let that determine if I make the play.
what happened to pitt last wk pitt -1- final line tb -2 never go against first pick otherwise pass.the line should not influence your handicapping. the line should be used only as value in bet...
what happened to pitt last wk pitt -1- final line tb -2 never go against first pick otherwise pass.the line should not influence your handicapping. the line should be used only as value in bet...
As Teddy Covers said in his YouTube videos about "Sharps vrs squares," he repeadily says over and over again "Sharps bet numbers, squares bet teams." Am I a "sharp?" Heavens no but I understand what he means when he quotes that phrase. Hopefully, someday you will understand that too...
"Schrödinger's bet." A bet that loses when you bet it but wins when you DON'T bet it...
As Teddy Covers said in his YouTube videos about "Sharps vrs squares," he repeadily says over and over again "Sharps bet numbers, squares bet teams." Am I a "sharp?" Heavens no but I understand what he means when he quotes that phrase. Hopefully, someday you will understand that too...
An exercise if you feel like it - check open and closing lines of the games (not the totals) and make an average line - then check with the final score. Go back a few years.
I'll make a prediction that less than 15% of the games fall within 4.5 points in either direction of that average line. That's a 9 point swing.
So if the avg line on a given game was RAIDERS -4.5 and JETS won 30-27 that is OUTSIDE of the 4.5 in either direction as JETS really one with the spread 34.5 - 27
Yes I know we all get burned on those hooks every now and then but it happens so less frequently than people think - do the research.
IMHO those pesky little line moves matter a lot less then we all think.
An exercise if you feel like it - check open and closing lines of the games (not the totals) and make an average line - then check with the final score. Go back a few years.
I'll make a prediction that less than 15% of the games fall within 4.5 points in either direction of that average line. That's a 9 point swing.
So if the avg line on a given game was RAIDERS -4.5 and JETS won 30-27 that is OUTSIDE of the 4.5 in either direction as JETS really one with the spread 34.5 - 27
Yes I know we all get burned on those hooks every now and then but it happens so less frequently than people think - do the research.
IMHO those pesky little line moves matter a lot less then we all think.
If the line moves without any key injuries or inactives, then it's just reflective of what other people are betting(public or smart $)
If that line move scares you off of your own handicap, then I guess you don't have confidence in your own handicap.
The goal in the long run is to get the best # or juice on a line offered.
The best advantages are right at open. But you have to be well ahead of everyone and ready to fire.
For instance, college lines open on Sunday afternoon while NFL games are in full swing. Books have limits on them knowing only the astute bettors are ready to fire while everyone is glued to the tv and their fantasy teams.
Books like betonline and 5dimes open nfl lines late afternoon on Sundays while everyone is still watching the late games and getting ready for the SNF chase.
Some lines move within a matter of minutes at limits.
1 to 2 days later you're out anywhere from 1 to 3 points of value. On college lines you can see up to 6 point discrepancies. The books won't even register some of their early line history out of pure embarrassment I think.
If the line moves without any key injuries or inactives, then it's just reflective of what other people are betting(public or smart $)
If that line move scares you off of your own handicap, then I guess you don't have confidence in your own handicap.
The goal in the long run is to get the best # or juice on a line offered.
The best advantages are right at open. But you have to be well ahead of everyone and ready to fire.
For instance, college lines open on Sunday afternoon while NFL games are in full swing. Books have limits on them knowing only the astute bettors are ready to fire while everyone is glued to the tv and their fantasy teams.
Books like betonline and 5dimes open nfl lines late afternoon on Sundays while everyone is still watching the late games and getting ready for the SNF chase.
Some lines move within a matter of minutes at limits.
1 to 2 days later you're out anywhere from 1 to 3 points of value. On college lines you can see up to 6 point discrepancies. The books won't even register some of their early line history out of pure embarrassment I think.
First you need to decide why do lines move? To enumerate on a few - new information (can be everything and anything), books taking too much exposure on one side, books decide post opening a line that they want to take a position (this is rare but happens... usually when books want a position, they will set a line that the public views as a nice line but in reality, is off)....
Next when did the line? movement when lines open and or just before kickoff can signify sharp action driving movement...
What was the line before and after movement? How significant was the movement? Did we go from +7 -115 to +6.5 -105 for example
These are a few of a number of questions to ask yourself
Overall, if I liked +7 for example and the line moved to +6 I view my play is incrementally more positive than if I liked +7 ad the line moved to +8. Counter-intuitive when I first started betting but then stop and think about the reasons for line movement...
Having said all of that, line movement is an incremental thing... if you are on the right side at +7 then most probably, you are on the right side at +7.5 (always) or 6.5 (most probably)
First you need to decide why do lines move? To enumerate on a few - new information (can be everything and anything), books taking too much exposure on one side, books decide post opening a line that they want to take a position (this is rare but happens... usually when books want a position, they will set a line that the public views as a nice line but in reality, is off)....
Next when did the line? movement when lines open and or just before kickoff can signify sharp action driving movement...
What was the line before and after movement? How significant was the movement? Did we go from +7 -115 to +6.5 -105 for example
These are a few of a number of questions to ask yourself
Overall, if I liked +7 for example and the line moved to +6 I view my play is incrementally more positive than if I liked +7 ad the line moved to +8. Counter-intuitive when I first started betting but then stop and think about the reasons for line movement...
Having said all of that, line movement is an incremental thing... if you are on the right side at +7 then most probably, you are on the right side at +7.5 (always) or 6.5 (most probably)
There were lots of close games week 4, decided by 3 pts or less. Somehow, I managed to grab DEN +4 ahead of drops to 3.5 and 3. I joined the game in the second half, always glad to see my team ahead, plus have points to add just in case.
With DEN blowing it in the end, I was lucky to get my money back at +4. Everyone else with 3 and 3.5 lost. Lucky me.
There were lots of close games week 4, decided by 3 pts or less. Somehow, I managed to grab DEN +4 ahead of drops to 3.5 and 3. I joined the game in the second half, always glad to see my team ahead, plus have points to add just in case.
With DEN blowing it in the end, I was lucky to get my money back at +4. Everyone else with 3 and 3.5 lost. Lucky me.
When I look at movements I always look from opening until now. I also like to look at lots of books to make sure it is across the board, you are a smart gambler so know what I mean.
When I look at movements I always look from opening until now. I also like to look at lots of books to make sure it is across the board, you are a smart gambler so know what I mean.
Lines mean absolutely nothing in the NFL. Everyone thinks they do. But they don't!!!
Except whether or not you win or lose.
Dude. No one, and I mean NO ONE, knows why Vegas moves a line a certain way. And don't pretend like you know,cause you don't. Vegas moves lines to confuse people. They don't confuse me cause I don't look at them. Vegas moves the line with the money, Vegas moves line against the money. They move lines when there's too much on 1 team, they move them the opposite way to confuse people. Just because a line moves towards a team, doesn't mean money is coming in on that team. If you guys know so much about lines. Then why does everyone on Covers complain about losing? I win all the time. Look at my threads. Lines don't mean anything. You guys keep wasting your time trying to figure them out. Vegas loves to confuse people. And one more time. NO ONE KNOWS WHY VEGAS WILL MOVE A LINE A CERTAIN WAY. NO ONE KNOWS WHY.
Lines mean absolutely nothing in the NFL. Everyone thinks they do. But they don't!!!
Except whether or not you win or lose.
Dude. No one, and I mean NO ONE, knows why Vegas moves a line a certain way. And don't pretend like you know,cause you don't. Vegas moves lines to confuse people. They don't confuse me cause I don't look at them. Vegas moves the line with the money, Vegas moves line against the money. They move lines when there's too much on 1 team, they move them the opposite way to confuse people. Just because a line moves towards a team, doesn't mean money is coming in on that team. If you guys know so much about lines. Then why does everyone on Covers complain about losing? I win all the time. Look at my threads. Lines don't mean anything. You guys keep wasting your time trying to figure them out. Vegas loves to confuse people. And one more time. NO ONE KNOWS WHY VEGAS WILL MOVE A LINE A CERTAIN WAY. NO ONE KNOWS WHY.
It's so comical to see people on here don't place a wager because the LINE scared them off. Really? The line scared you off? Why??? For every game when a line has moved WITH a team and it has WON. I can show a when a line moved with a team and it has LOST. Example, when line moved -7 to -8 and it wins, that teams win and covers. I can show you where -7 becames -8 and that team doesn't win and covers. Keep trying to figure the lines out. Waste of time. And one more time. NO ONE KNOWS WHY VEGAS WILL MOVE A LINE A CERTAIN WAY. Stop pretending like you know, cause you don't
It's so comical to see people on here don't place a wager because the LINE scared them off. Really? The line scared you off? Why??? For every game when a line has moved WITH a team and it has WON. I can show a when a line moved with a team and it has LOST. Example, when line moved -7 to -8 and it wins, that teams win and covers. I can show you where -7 becames -8 and that team doesn't win and covers. Keep trying to figure the lines out. Waste of time. And one more time. NO ONE KNOWS WHY VEGAS WILL MOVE A LINE A CERTAIN WAY. Stop pretending like you know, cause you don't
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