Colts +6
A lot has been made of Luck throwing the ball fifty times in the Colts narrow loss against the Bengals. What many aren't considering is the brilliant scheme in which he did it.
This isn't baseball, and 50 throws within 20 yards is not extremely strenuous on even a reconstructed shoulder.
Colts have strengths: a great QB, a strong interior O Line, a smart Offensive coach. These are bound to add up to lopsided throwing/running ratio.
It's not that the Colts aren't running, they are. In fact, they are running successfully. Against a very good Bengals front they ran the ball for 3.41 ypc, and this doesn't include the short passes and RPOs that act as an extension of the run game. The Colts stress the defense at the edges and constantly occupy the Linebackers with short passes.
The blocking schemes in the run game were also interesting. A lot of Kelly leaking into the second level and getting one on one with a DB or LB. A lot of short passes where they utilize this blocking. On a couple of occasions, if a WR blocked the S instead of the DB in one of them, and if Kelly had gotten good leverage on another, they would have been huge gains.
This scheme is the antithesis of whatever the heck the Cardinals were trying to do against the Skins last week.
Ask yourself this: is a one week sample size against a painfully conservative opponent enough to justify a 6 point spread? I hear a lot about the Skins defense, are they really an elite unit?
In general, I see a great opportunity to buy on a superior scheme causing enough problems for a good (not great) skins D to have trouble keeping the Colts Under 24, at which point we are banking on the Skins failing to score 31, a wager I am comfortable making even against a bad Defense.
And the Colts defense isn't that bad. While I was not impressed with the Colts Defense, I was surprised with their effort against the Bengals. Game on the line against a solid Offense (who put up 34 REAL points on the Ravens yesterday), the Colts D stood up and forced a FG. That's all I am asking of them. Don't give up 30. Colts 24, Redskins 27