Everyone who invests in stocks, bets on sports, plays Fantasy or whatever, has to deal with one important thing: measuring the process or return on risk. No matter what you invest in, you spend time and money and you goal is to get a profitable return in the long run. In the sports betting community, e.g. Gambling Twitter or betting forums, sports bettors mostly measure success. That’s the first step. Bettors generally measure success by win/loss records and the resulting winning percentage. Some more add the amount of units they won or lost. Those can be good indicators on how good or bad someone is betting. But those are also absolute numbers and can be misleading. A great win percentage over 60% or “+600 units this year” don’t necessarily mean a lot without context. You also cannot compare two different handicappers by those numbers.
Winning percentage and units won/lost don’t tell you anything about efficiency. In this context, efficiency means the profit relative to what you are investing. It depends on how many bets you make, what prices you play on and how much you invest per bet. You might have a high winning percentage when betting high MLB favorites, but you could still end up on the losing side despite hitting 60% or more. Someone who risks 5,000 units per season and is up 500 units, achieves the exact same efficiency as someone who risks 500 units and is up 50. It really just depends on how much you are investing and what the prices are. Here are some winning percentages and their required break even point depending on the average odds:
-250 / 71.43%
-200 / 66.67%
-150 / 60.00%
-140 / 58.33%
-130 / 56.52%
-120 / 54.55%
-115 / 53.49%
-110 / 52.38%
100 / 50.00%
+110 / 47.62%
+115 / 46.51%
+120 / 45.45%
+130 / 43.48%
+140 / 58.33%
+150 / 40.00%
+200 / 33.33%
+250 / 28.57%
When you play only spreads (NFL, e.g.) and your average odds are -110, you need to win 52.38% of the time to break even. That means your record over 100 games needs to be 53-47 in order to generate a profit. Someone who bets on an average price of -120, will generate a loss off a 53-47 record. Applying one unit per play, the -110 guy ends up with +1.3 units where as the -120 guy ends up with -3.4 units. That’s a difference of 4.7 units just because the average line is ten cents lower. That also shows you how important odds/price management is when it comes to sports betting. It also doesn’t matter whether one guy bets ten units per game or just one. The profit relative to the risk is the same.
Everyone who invests in stocks, bets on sports, plays Fantasy or whatever, has to deal with one important thing: measuring the process or return on risk. No matter what you invest in, you spend time and money and you goal is to get a profitable return in the long run. In the sports betting community, e.g. Gambling Twitter or betting forums, sports bettors mostly measure success. That’s the first step. Bettors generally measure success by win/loss records and the resulting winning percentage. Some more add the amount of units they won or lost. Those can be good indicators on how good or bad someone is betting. But those are also absolute numbers and can be misleading. A great win percentage over 60% or “+600 units this year” don’t necessarily mean a lot without context. You also cannot compare two different handicappers by those numbers.
Winning percentage and units won/lost don’t tell you anything about efficiency. In this context, efficiency means the profit relative to what you are investing. It depends on how many bets you make, what prices you play on and how much you invest per bet. You might have a high winning percentage when betting high MLB favorites, but you could still end up on the losing side despite hitting 60% or more. Someone who risks 5,000 units per season and is up 500 units, achieves the exact same efficiency as someone who risks 500 units and is up 50. It really just depends on how much you are investing and what the prices are. Here are some winning percentages and their required break even point depending on the average odds:
-250 / 71.43%
-200 / 66.67%
-150 / 60.00%
-140 / 58.33%
-130 / 56.52%
-120 / 54.55%
-115 / 53.49%
-110 / 52.38%
100 / 50.00%
+110 / 47.62%
+115 / 46.51%
+120 / 45.45%
+130 / 43.48%
+140 / 58.33%
+150 / 40.00%
+200 / 33.33%
+250 / 28.57%
When you play only spreads (NFL, e.g.) and your average odds are -110, you need to win 52.38% of the time to break even. That means your record over 100 games needs to be 53-47 in order to generate a profit. Someone who bets on an average price of -120, will generate a loss off a 53-47 record. Applying one unit per play, the -110 guy ends up with +1.3 units where as the -120 guy ends up with -3.4 units. That’s a difference of 4.7 units just because the average line is ten cents lower. That also shows you how important odds/price management is when it comes to sports betting. It also doesn’t matter whether one guy bets ten units per game or just one. The profit relative to the risk is the same.
What is the solution? Calculating Return on Risk (RoR). Return on Risk measures the efficiency of your betting process. You divide your profit by the amount you have risked:
RoR = profit / total risk
By measuring RoR, you can effectively measure the efficiency of your betting process. RoR is independent of the amount of units risked, the winning percentage and the average odds. Profit and total risk already process the average odds, so that the result is just the profit relative to what you are risking. Coming back to the examples above, the -110 guy achieves an RoR of +1.18% (1.3 / 110), the -120 guy ends up with an RoR of -2.83% (-3.4 / 120). Both have the same winning percentage, but the results are different just because one guy had lower odds on average.
Winning percentage and units won/lost are fine, but they are success-based and not efficiency-based. I don’t condemn anyone who quotes winning percentage and units – I do it myself. It looks good for advertising purposes, it gives you a good feeling and most of the people are familiar with winning percentage and units. But at the end, both are just a measurement system for tracking success. Adding Return on Risk gives everyone a clue about true efficiency.
What is the solution? Calculating Return on Risk (RoR). Return on Risk measures the efficiency of your betting process. You divide your profit by the amount you have risked:
RoR = profit / total risk
By measuring RoR, you can effectively measure the efficiency of your betting process. RoR is independent of the amount of units risked, the winning percentage and the average odds. Profit and total risk already process the average odds, so that the result is just the profit relative to what you are risking. Coming back to the examples above, the -110 guy achieves an RoR of +1.18% (1.3 / 110), the -120 guy ends up with an RoR of -2.83% (-3.4 / 120). Both have the same winning percentage, but the results are different just because one guy had lower odds on average.
Winning percentage and units won/lost are fine, but they are success-based and not efficiency-based. I don’t condemn anyone who quotes winning percentage and units – I do it myself. It looks good for advertising purposes, it gives you a good feeling and most of the people are familiar with winning percentage and units. But at the end, both are just a measurement system for tracking success. Adding Return on Risk gives everyone a clue about true efficiency.
Suuma isn't a tout, he's an analyst and information provider. A tout sells picks for a price. An analyst provides information. Big difference.
Suuma provides in-depth analysis and write-ups on NFL games. His NFL team projections are incredibly detailed and worth the price of his service alone. Heck, this article here is worth the price of his service alone, because it will pay for itself many times over.
Personally, I don't like paying for picks, however, I'm more than willing to pay for quality information.
Suuma isn't a tout, he's an analyst and information provider. A tout sells picks for a price. An analyst provides information. Big difference.
Suuma provides in-depth analysis and write-ups on NFL games. His NFL team projections are incredibly detailed and worth the price of his service alone. Heck, this article here is worth the price of his service alone, because it will pay for itself many times over.
Personally, I don't like paying for picks, however, I'm more than willing to pay for quality information.
I agree Doc. I'd rather read an intelligent and detailed breakdown over a "Five Star Game of the Year" guaranteed pick nonsense...which happens three or four times a week with any tout out there.
I agree Doc. I'd rather read an intelligent and detailed breakdown over a "Five Star Game of the Year" guaranteed pick nonsense...which happens three or four times a week with any tout out there.
Suuma isn't a tout, he's an analyst and information provider. A tout sells picks for a price. An analyst provides information. Big difference.
Suuma provides in-depth analysis and write-ups on NFL games. His NFL team projections are incredibly detailed and worth the price of his service alone. Heck, this article here is worth the price of his service alone, because it will pay for itself many times over.
Personally, I don't like paying for picks, however, I'm more than willing to pay for quality information.
Suuma isn't a tout, he's an analyst and information provider. A tout sells picks for a price. An analyst provides information. Big difference.
Suuma provides in-depth analysis and write-ups on NFL games. His NFL team projections are incredibly detailed and worth the price of his service alone. Heck, this article here is worth the price of his service alone, because it will pay for itself many times over.
Personally, I don't like paying for picks, however, I'm more than willing to pay for quality information.
I agree Doc. I'd rather read an intelligent and detailed breakdown over a "Five Star Game of the Year" guaranteed pick nonsense...which happens three or four times a week with any tout out there.
Gotta love a classic LATE PHONE RELEASE 50* DIMER.
I agree Doc. I'd rather read an intelligent and detailed breakdown over a "Five Star Game of the Year" guaranteed pick nonsense...which happens three or four times a week with any tout out there.
Gotta love a classic LATE PHONE RELEASE 50* DIMER.
Speaking of RoR - I have never been able to grasp the Futures market in terms of RoR. Especially NFL where one injury crucial injury can define the whole season.
What do you think is the wise approach to futures? I'm keen on using Betfair Trading platform as you can simply sell them for a good profit half way through the season, but other than that, it seems anything below +500 is simply not worth looking at.
Speaking of RoR - I have never been able to grasp the Futures market in terms of RoR. Especially NFL where one injury crucial injury can define the whole season.
What do you think is the wise approach to futures? I'm keen on using Betfair Trading platform as you can simply sell them for a good profit half way through the season, but other than that, it seems anything below +500 is simply not worth looking at.
Speaking of RoR - I have never been able to grasp the Futures market in terms of RoR. Especially NFL where one injury crucial injury can define the whole season.
What do you think is the wise approach to futures? I'm keen on using Betfair Trading platform as you can simply sell them for a good profit half way through the season, but other than that, it seems anything below +500 is simply not worth looking at.
That's a very interesting question. The big problem with futures is that you tie up your money for a long time and that money reduces your bankroll for the regular season. Many future markets like outright Super Bowl winners also have high margins for the books and therefore lower value for the bettor. The best option is a credit book, but you will probably only get that with locals.
I agree with you - the best approach is to look for futures which have value and present favorable hedging / trading / cash out opportunities in the future. It's an investment.
A good example are the LA Rams this year. They got a lot of hype which is mirrored in the betting markets. They are about 12-1 to win the Super Bowl and favorites to win their division. If someone bets into their SB future, he is pretty much assuming they are going to win their division. This would lead to either home field in the first round with a road game in the divisional round or a first-round bye. For the best possible hedging opportunity, you would want them to get a first-round bye which means you are most likely betting into underdogs with one game less to hedge your future. But even if you get three Rams games as favs, you are still very limited in hedging, because the payout is only 12-1.
You could hedge with 1, 2 and 4 units on the underdog. Let's say the average odds are +180. If the Rams lose a game at some point, you would get +0.8u in the first, +1.6u in the second game and +3.2u on the Super Bowl as a profitable hedge. If the Rams win out, you profit +4u. That’s guaranteed money, but this is one of the best possible scenarios. If they play two road games as underdogs, the hedge becomes very difficult, because you need to bet into favorites. It’s even possible that you need to wait until the Championship game to start a profitable hedge.
For these scenarios, a Rams future doesn’t have enough value IMO. If you can get a profitable trade at Betfair, that’s a great option. If someone wants to bet the Rams, I would wait to grab them at better value in-season. Maybe they have a bad start.
Speaking of RoR - I have never been able to grasp the Futures market in terms of RoR. Especially NFL where one injury crucial injury can define the whole season.
What do you think is the wise approach to futures? I'm keen on using Betfair Trading platform as you can simply sell them for a good profit half way through the season, but other than that, it seems anything below +500 is simply not worth looking at.
That's a very interesting question. The big problem with futures is that you tie up your money for a long time and that money reduces your bankroll for the regular season. Many future markets like outright Super Bowl winners also have high margins for the books and therefore lower value for the bettor. The best option is a credit book, but you will probably only get that with locals.
I agree with you - the best approach is to look for futures which have value and present favorable hedging / trading / cash out opportunities in the future. It's an investment.
A good example are the LA Rams this year. They got a lot of hype which is mirrored in the betting markets. They are about 12-1 to win the Super Bowl and favorites to win their division. If someone bets into their SB future, he is pretty much assuming they are going to win their division. This would lead to either home field in the first round with a road game in the divisional round or a first-round bye. For the best possible hedging opportunity, you would want them to get a first-round bye which means you are most likely betting into underdogs with one game less to hedge your future. But even if you get three Rams games as favs, you are still very limited in hedging, because the payout is only 12-1.
You could hedge with 1, 2 and 4 units on the underdog. Let's say the average odds are +180. If the Rams lose a game at some point, you would get +0.8u in the first, +1.6u in the second game and +3.2u on the Super Bowl as a profitable hedge. If the Rams win out, you profit +4u. That’s guaranteed money, but this is one of the best possible scenarios. If they play two road games as underdogs, the hedge becomes very difficult, because you need to bet into favorites. It’s even possible that you need to wait until the Championship game to start a profitable hedge.
For these scenarios, a Rams future doesn’t have enough value IMO. If you can get a profitable trade at Betfair, that’s a great option. If someone wants to bet the Rams, I would wait to grab them at better value in-season. Maybe they have a bad start.
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