Before you ask: Covey has looked very, very good lately; partially why I landed on only 61% probability for the BoSox, but nothing like the game he threw at them. He actually would have been a value play anywhere north of +224, but would not have had a probable winning margin, in the long run.
Before you ask: Covey has looked very, very good lately; partially why I landed on only 61% probability for the BoSox, but nothing like the game he threw at them. He actually would have been a value play anywhere north of +224, but would not have had a probable winning margin, in the long run.
BTW - Pro cappers stay away from big favorites because it is too embarrassing when they lose. Pro gamblers do not shy away from big favorites if the probability is there. A good read that would help you understand that would be Bob McCune's Realities in Sports Betting. I won't expound on that because most Covers Forum members haven't read a book or studied reality since high school.
BTW - Pro cappers stay away from big favorites because it is too embarrassing when they lose. Pro gamblers do not shy away from big favorites if the probability is there. A good read that would help you understand that would be Bob McCune's Realities in Sports Betting. I won't expound on that because most Covers Forum members haven't read a book or studied reality since high school.
Nerd ~ I have Scherzer at 68.9% probability, quite high, and that justifies a risk of -233; BUT, he also makes my - Do Not Fade List - so if he cashes good for you, and if he doesn't I will be surprised. BOL
Nerd ~ I have Scherzer at 68.9% probability, quite high, and that justifies a risk of -233; BUT, he also makes my - Do Not Fade List - so if he cashes good for you, and if he doesn't I will be surprised. BOL
That is some bad luck!
That is some bad luck!
The biggest problem is with the guys that feel they have to "add the juice" on favorites. So, the guy that normally likes to play a hundred says to himself "Geez, I have to lay $250.00 on that -250 favorite." Then when he loses he has done severe damage to his bankroll, not by playing a big favorite, but by taking an unusually large risk. That risk is out of his realm, and damages his view of big favorites.
The whole problem arises from bettors feeling they want to play for a target profit, $100, and failing to control the only thing they can control, which is risk, not profit. If a "target profit" method were actually used by the same guy he would only wager $80 on a +125 dog, to make his "target profit" of $100. In either case letting the "target profit" be the control factor, as opposed to risk, is foolish.
Profit can not be controlled, only risk can be controlled.
The biggest problem is with the guys that feel they have to "add the juice" on favorites. So, the guy that normally likes to play a hundred says to himself "Geez, I have to lay $250.00 on that -250 favorite." Then when he loses he has done severe damage to his bankroll, not by playing a big favorite, but by taking an unusually large risk. That risk is out of his realm, and damages his view of big favorites.
The whole problem arises from bettors feeling they want to play for a target profit, $100, and failing to control the only thing they can control, which is risk, not profit. If a "target profit" method were actually used by the same guy he would only wager $80 on a +125 dog, to make his "target profit" of $100. In either case letting the "target profit" be the control factor, as opposed to risk, is foolish.
Profit can not be controlled, only risk can be controlled.
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