YTD: 5-1-1
2011-'12: 34-23
2010-'11: 2-3-1
2009-'10: 14-7
Posted winner on San Jose St / Kansas Under 137 last night
Play: Iowa / Virginia Tech Under 141.5
With Fran McCaffrey’s arrival at Iowa in 2011, the Hawkeyes have been an “over” team for me on numerous occasions (the over vs CMU earlier in the year is actually the only posted L this season for me). But things are slowly changing in Iowa City.
McCaffrey is backing up his preseason commitment to defense this year, while at the same time transitioning away from his up-tempo style that he has became known for. A defense that allowed 1.019 pts per possession last year (2nd worst in the B10), has allowed the following ppp this year: 0.73, 0.91, 0.59, 0.84, 0.87, and 1.10. Yes, a small sample – but a 0.18 pt per possession drop is very significant. McCaffrey’s quotes after a 1-1 trip to Cancun last week acknowledge this new defensive focus, “We competed hard defensively, which is a big step for us from where we were last year.” However, due to the youth of the team, the offense is still a work in progress as McCaffrey struggles with a rotation that has 9 players averaging at least 13.3 minutes per game. So for Iowa, we have a team transitioning away from an above average pace of play, committed to defense, who is struggling to find offensive consistency, playing their first true road game – all nice ingredients to have present when backing an under.
Now for the Virginia Tech side of the equation. Situationally speaking, there may not be a better time to back an under as the Hokies are coming off a 3 game stretch where they scored 95, 96, and 87 points and rank 9th nationally scoring 85.4 ppg. But herein lies the value on the under tonight in my opinion. Those three games came against 2 teams ranked in the top 10 nationally with respect to pace and the third team (Appalachian St) is ranked #55 in tempo and doesn’t play a lick of defense (#337, allowing 1.097 pts per poss).
Now they turn around and face their toughest opponent to date as they have not played a team yet ranked in KenPom’s top 200. And Coach James Johnson recognizes this point, “They’re going to be more physical than the teams we’ve played. They’re big, they’re strong and they’re physical. We haven’t seen that yet. So we’ll see how we do against that, we’ll get a chance to see our guys play a traditional matchup with fours and fives.” I’m willing to take my chances that baskets won’t come as easily for this young VTech team as they have through the first 3 weeks of the season.
It is also worth noting that the Hokies are shooting 42.7% from behind the arc (8th best in nation) and get over 38% of their points from 3 point range. Tonight they face an Iowa defense that is committed to taking away this shot – only allowing 25.4% on the season (25th best in nation). As McCaffrey sees it, “This [VTech] is a team that will challenge that particular aspect of our defense in a big way.”
Of course, VTech may be able to force pace in front of their home crowd, but I think the situations involved set up nicely to back an under tonight.
Good luck if you decide to make a play