CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +23.27
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
Slight losing day yesterday. Went 1-2 for -0.60 units as I lost with the D-Backs and A's but cashed with the Blue Jays. What matters is I got great numbers on all plays, with the D-Backs +110 (closed -104), A's +205 (closed +190), and Blue Jays +140 (closed +118). No regrets.
Two plays for today, both bet at opening BetOnline numbers and posted in my Thursday thread.
Friday 9/28
913 San Francisco Giants +105
926 Minnesota Twins +135
Thought the SFO/SDG line was about 10 to 15 cents too high. A good line for comparison purposes is Werner's start from 9/9, when he closed at -105 to Patrick Corbin. We know that Corbin and Vogelsong are power-rated about equally as evidenced by the -120/+110 line for Corbin at home against Vogelsong on 9/16. As such, I was looking for Vogelsong to be lined about the same. At +105 I definitely feel there is at least 10 cents of value here with the Giants. I do see this line currently at around -105/-105 at most books.
Drew Smyly laying -145 road chalk is silly to me, especially against a fully capable pitcher in Scott Diamond. This is purely a reflection of the Tigers being in a tight pennant race, but why are they any more likely to win today than a month ago (where we would never see this type of line.) How did that work out for the Red Sox and Braves last season? Truth of the matter is, when I look at Diamond's last two starts, +185 on the road against Scherzer (which would have put him at around +140 at home in the same matchup) and +115 at home against Jake Peavy, +135 against Drew Smyly just seems ludicrous. Whether this line moves or not, I really do like the value on the Twins tonight at +135 as I don't see the Tigers winning this game 60% of the time as the opening line is indicating.
CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +23.27
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
Slight losing day yesterday. Went 1-2 for -0.60 units as I lost with the D-Backs and A's but cashed with the Blue Jays. What matters is I got great numbers on all plays, with the D-Backs +110 (closed -104), A's +205 (closed +190), and Blue Jays +140 (closed +118). No regrets.
Two plays for today, both bet at opening BetOnline numbers and posted in my Thursday thread.
Friday 9/28
913 San Francisco Giants +105
926 Minnesota Twins +135
Thought the SFO/SDG line was about 10 to 15 cents too high. A good line for comparison purposes is Werner's start from 9/9, when he closed at -105 to Patrick Corbin. We know that Corbin and Vogelsong are power-rated about equally as evidenced by the -120/+110 line for Corbin at home against Vogelsong on 9/16. As such, I was looking for Vogelsong to be lined about the same. At +105 I definitely feel there is at least 10 cents of value here with the Giants. I do see this line currently at around -105/-105 at most books.
Drew Smyly laying -145 road chalk is silly to me, especially against a fully capable pitcher in Scott Diamond. This is purely a reflection of the Tigers being in a tight pennant race, but why are they any more likely to win today than a month ago (where we would never see this type of line.) How did that work out for the Red Sox and Braves last season? Truth of the matter is, when I look at Diamond's last two starts, +185 on the road against Scherzer (which would have put him at around +140 at home in the same matchup) and +115 at home against Jake Peavy, +135 against Drew Smyly just seems ludicrous. Whether this line moves or not, I really do like the value on the Twins tonight at +135 as I don't see the Tigers winning this game 60% of the time as the opening line is indicating.
people are always backing teams right now thinking that the team "has something to play for". Just doesn't work that way in baseball. No matter how "motivated" or how badly you "want to win", just can't force things in this game. In fact, sometimes the harder you try the worse it can get. You can however, fade a team that is playing lackadaisical and just going through the motions but not the other way around. Just my opinion from playing the game for 20 years.
people are always backing teams right now thinking that the team "has something to play for". Just doesn't work that way in baseball. No matter how "motivated" or how badly you "want to win", just can't force things in this game. In fact, sometimes the harder you try the worse it can get. You can however, fade a team that is playing lackadaisical and just going through the motions but not the other way around. Just my opinion from playing the game for 20 years.
Tone, aren't these pitcher power rating #'s subject to change based on the lineups behind each pitcher?
Not necessarily speaking specifically about these games; more of a general question that becomes much more pertinent with these Sept. lineups.
Love the write ups man.
Absolutely... a guy like Felix Hernandez would probably be the highest rated power-pitcher in the league if he were on the Yankees... instead, he ends up as a +140 dog to C.J. Wilson.
But I think people make too much of lineups... The truth of the matter is that a guy's power-rating is his power-rating, and a simple lineup change is not going to move the needle that much. At most, you're talking maybe a 10 cent movement if a superstar like Josh Hamilton or Miguel Cabrera is out of the lineup. In most cases, for above average MLB players (say, Austin Jackson for example), the line will only move a couple cents. It's way, way overblown.
Tone, aren't these pitcher power rating #'s subject to change based on the lineups behind each pitcher?
Not necessarily speaking specifically about these games; more of a general question that becomes much more pertinent with these Sept. lineups.
Love the write ups man.
Absolutely... a guy like Felix Hernandez would probably be the highest rated power-pitcher in the league if he were on the Yankees... instead, he ends up as a +140 dog to C.J. Wilson.
But I think people make too much of lineups... The truth of the matter is that a guy's power-rating is his power-rating, and a simple lineup change is not going to move the needle that much. At most, you're talking maybe a 10 cent movement if a superstar like Josh Hamilton or Miguel Cabrera is out of the lineup. In most cases, for above average MLB players (say, Austin Jackson for example), the line will only move a couple cents. It's way, way overblown.
Absolutely... a guy like Felix Hernandez would probably be the highest rated power-pitcher in the league if he were on the Yankees... instead, he ends up as a +140 dog to C.J. Wilson.
But I think people make too much of lineups... The truth of the matter is that a guy's power-rating is his power-rating, and a simple lineup change is not going to move the needle that much. At most, you're talking maybe a 10 cent movement if a superstar like Josh Hamilton or Miguel Cabrera is out of the lineup. In most cases, for above average MLB players (say, Austin Jackson for example), the line will only move a couple cents. It's way, way overblown.
Good points Tone; thanks for sharing your perspective.
Absolutely... a guy like Felix Hernandez would probably be the highest rated power-pitcher in the league if he were on the Yankees... instead, he ends up as a +140 dog to C.J. Wilson.
But I think people make too much of lineups... The truth of the matter is that a guy's power-rating is his power-rating, and a simple lineup change is not going to move the needle that much. At most, you're talking maybe a 10 cent movement if a superstar like Josh Hamilton or Miguel Cabrera is out of the lineup. In most cases, for above average MLB players (say, Austin Jackson for example), the line will only move a couple cents. It's way, way overblown.
Good points Tone; thanks for sharing your perspective.
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