Thoughts:
Michigan State +7.5 vs North Carolina Total 155
We will start with Trends. Trends point to take Michigan State in this one - UNC is 1-4 ATS as a 7.5 pt fav this year, 9-11 ATS in night games, only 14-14 ATS vs above .500 teams, 12-18 ATS after a win, 14-17 ATS after scoring 75+. MSU is 14-5 ATS Away, 20-10 ATS vs above .500 teams, 9-1 ATS Away, 15-9 ATS after opponent win and 17-11 after giving up less than 75 points.
HOWEVER - UNC beat MSU into the ground on this same court already this year. In that game, a 98-63 win for UNC, they shot 48% to 35%, were even on rebounds and MSU had 21 TO's...Suton did not play for MSU in that game. Embarrasement factor should play into this game for MSU.
Overall, UNC scores 17 more per game and MSU gives up 9 less for a UNC +8 advantage. UNC shoots slightly better, but MSU had +3 reb margin.
Away games - UNC has +6 pt advantage, the rest the same as overall
Neutral games - UNC has +12 pt adv, shoots better and even has a +1 reb margin!
Last 5 (all tourny) - UNC has +12 pt adv, shoots better but their FT's dropped and MSU has +3 reb adv.
I say BUCK the Trend and go with UNC -7.5, even in MSU's backyard. This one may get ugly and we can all go to bed early.\
LEAN UNC -7.5
Total -
135/161 - overall
131/159 - away
139/158 - neutral
136/154 - Last 5 (tournament)
All TRENDS POINT UNDER in this one. Only one that points to over is UNC is 14-6 O/U in Night games and 8-5 O/U with a 150's total.
Expect nervous energy to start the game, lots of defense and bricks.
Lean UNDER 155