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Quote Originally Posted by SPREAD_IT_ON: REGULAR SEASON vs. spread 55-64 straight up 70-49 https://spreaditon-ppp.blogspot.ca/ Undefeated straight up last week. Well done. I hope you had some cash on some ML parlays. BOL
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SPREAD_IT_ON | 3 |
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Bill Fuller is in the corner crying right now. Sucks, kid is a blast to watch sling the rock.
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packersbackers | 10 |
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Quote Originally Posted by DialedCaper7: Betting against the public money while isnt always right, is surely an effective strategy. Vegas wins more then the public. If 70% of the "public" is on a team do you really thing 7 out of 10 people are making money and beating vegas that night. Sure it may happen but more times then not vegas is more comfortable paying off the 3 out of 10 people rather then the 7. Vegas tried to get the bets as close to 50/50 as possible so they never lose their behind on any one game.
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Murraylocks | 18 |
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Damn! Whole lot of money lost on that practice.
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packersbackers | 10 |
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Quote Originally Posted by DialedCaper7:
McCown is a low key gun slinger, wager on buffalo with caution
He actually is, and can get hot. |
GridIronGenius | 6 |
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Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:
Prof i agree everything you said about my boids they had it too easy vs 49ers 2nd half tho lookat 1st half thos it loooked loike i was going down .......... BUT SF was bringing in bright new rookie QB and that told me Eagles - 13 was the way to go Thats it cleraly you stated it this is no way to prepare for a far better Broncos team and eagles are not covering huge spreads vs decnt afc teams Decnt i mean with 3 -4 wins however as wee see Broncos D has alloweed over 21 points 3 str8 games 10-23 vs NYG 0-21 @ chargers 19-29 @ KC notice the diff in KC game only lsoing by 10 points as a 7 point pup BUT they stopped KC cold scoring td's for 3 quaters nothing BUT Fg's IF broncos do that in Philly Eagles blow cover for sure.whoa wait a min broncos aint showing up here look at thier schedule HOME VS Patriots lol all teams do this they roll over before playing the Champs now i safley take the eagles weeeeeeeeeeeee goota look at schedules always even last years DIV teams or games where a team ran up score vs another wow the upsets that happen ....NFL teams have deep memories
Over 21 points 3 straight games, and half of those points were not the defense's fault. Denver's offense has the 2nd most turnovers in the nfl, has turned the ball over 8 times inside their own territory, and has 3 Pick 6's/fumbles returned for TD's.
If you take away the 3 pick 6's, they have the 3rd best scoring defense in the league.
They are way better than their record. All Ossweiler has to do is not turn the ball over. Phili moneyline makes sense, but i'm fading the spread.
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Professor-MJ | 24 |
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Reverse cursing your team so they can win. Well played.
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Trumpinator2020 | 8 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Humvee77:
Speak for yourself when you talk about degenerates. I do this for fun and do just fine myself in my day job. Also, what did Cade did in his after NFL life is irrelevant to the fact that he was not a good QB. I am happy for his afterlife (as it appears you are quite envious of it), but we're betting football games here..last I checked. So, yes..the joke works for me because Josh McCown/McNown hasn't done anything in his career and still has a job. Let us not forget that choke job few weeks against the Dolphins with Matt Moore leading. Again, Matt Moore. The same Matt Moore who couldn't move the ball 10 yards against the Ravens last week. Remember that INT that Josh McCown threw deep in THEIR side of the field that allowed the Dolphins to score 17 unanswered? Just want to make sure you if you haven't.
And no, banging Playboy models isn't as great as it seems. Having dated a few Penthouse/Tropicana girls in my time (it's easy when when you are in that scene), I liken them to parasites..
I learned never date a 10..they usually have a screw loose, but they are also everyone else's gf. Calm down, brah, I was just busting balls. And I agree on the 10's. They are only good for the hours you are alone with them, after that they are not worth thinking about. They either want something from you, or you can't trust them to leave your site. Much better off with a 7, but now because of the internet, 7's think they're 10's. Anyway, McNown sucks, go Bill, fug Gang Green.
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bpickin | 21 |
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Appreciate you giving your picks and advice, Prof.
- 1.) I am staying away from this Phili/Den game. The Broncos are much better than their record and the only reason they're not 5-2 or 6-1 is because of turnovers. They have the best defense in the NFL, and outplayed KC last week. Their offense gave up a TD on a fumble return, and the offense turned the ball over 5 times. With Peters out at LT, and the way that Den D plays, I could see them attacking the Peters' replacement whos is nothing more than a backup. Denver could easily cover, but you're never wrong to bet on the best team in the NFL. Just wouldn't be surprised to see a low scoring game where the Eagles can't run the ball. 2.) "We are observing a reverse line movement in this game, as the line dropped from 3.5 to 3 despite 77% of spread bets and 57% of money line bets going on Buffalo. I like it." But what if that is movement because of a whale with too much time, money, and bad beats on his hands? Bills are the better team by far, but an away, short week, division game the NYJ could def keep it inside the points or win SU. 3.) This game is a true pick 'em. Most likely whoever makes the least mistakes, and whoever can keep the other offense off the field. Chiefs are explosive, the Cowboys like to grind. The Chiefs crest turnovers, the Cowboys can pressure. Staying away and chilling on this game. Thanks again for the info. BOL!
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Professor-MJ | 24 |
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Quote Originally Posted by GridIronGenius: Bills-3 Wish I had your balls. Bills are better and are a sure win since I am fading this game tonight because I am a chickenshit afraid of got damned Josh McCown. BOL
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GridIronGenius | 6 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Humvee77: On the Bills wagon, sorry. Can’t see McNown passing this team to victory. He hasn’t done it lately and nothing presumes he’ll start. I'm not sure if everyone on Covers actually thinks his name is McNown, or it's a giant joke I wasn't in on. His name is Josh McCown. Cade McNown was a dude who played for UCLA and the Bears for a half an hour at the turn of the century who is now the VP of a bank investment firm and richer than any of us degenerates. Oh, he also banged Playboy models in his spare time. So if you're calling him McNown to make fun of him, not sure the joke works. BOL ALL!
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bpickin | 21 |
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Quote Originally Posted by footballsmart: Smurf, to equate what you are doing with what I'm doing, you would have to play exactly 5 picks a week. I can play one or two a week and get over 60% but I've committed to 5. Your overall number is also insanely low. Mine is way too low at 165 games so far .... so you haven't even begun :-))) .... but GOOD LUCK! Also ... post always publicly and in advance of games for credibility. A lot of people say a lot ... but unless the record is there to review .. It is probably more than likely inflated. I agree on posting. I have had several threads get deleted from here, so I quit trying to do it every week. But yeah, I could say anything and who knows if I am telling the truth. My system is only for NFL teams, and it avoids divisional games, games with new starting QB's/head coaches/coordinators, so that limits who I play. But I know I need more. Hopefully this year is a trial run, and next year I cam revamp and be ready by week 4.
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footballsmart | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller: I just question the covers matchups bills ranked 25th jets ranked 29th PR Bills 2.5 Jets 4.5 ???? who da fugggg is the d head that makes these matchup pages on covers??? Bills 25th? |
Gioia1 | 16 |
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My system is killing it. 47-13-2 overall ATS, and 36-7-1 on games I would play.
I didn't play anything as I wanted to wait and get over 50 games first, but I'm playing this week and it's got me crapping myself that this will be the week it regresses to the mean. 5 division games. 3 Teams starting a new QB. 1 team with a QB in his 2nd start 2 games the system says is a Pick 'Em One team the system likes is without 3 of their starting OL And a team coming off of a bye with a new playcaller I am already sweating.
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footballsmart | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller: @ OP why in gawds name would you buy down to 3 ....... OK yes let me remove the hook so i get a push YOUR whole write up clearly states the JETS are cluster injured and bills are fairly healthy that this game is a an easy 14 point win for the Bills. SO why buy the 1/2 down to 3??? Then in Comparsion u use Cowboys @ redskins which was a reg 7 day in bewteen game and Redskins home dog got crushed like a ripe tomato. I think evry one in covers took Cowboys knowing redskins Defense was depleted plus thier offense aint cranking huge points vs winning teams. I like the Bills simply because they are the better team but these TNF games are just wacky. Who were the Skins missing on defense last week? They were also without 3 starters on the OL. Pretty crazy they kept it that close if they had guys on defense out as well.
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Humvee77 | 22 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma: To my surprise, the line on the Eagles dropped to -7.5.. anyway Thursday nite play Jets +3(EVEN) *2u* Jets ML +140 *1u* The Bills are the better team playing tonite no question, but by how much? The Bills to me are a fradulent 5-2 team. Sure, they beat the Falcons on the road but their other wins arent really worth bragging about. Ok they beat a struggling Broncos, Raiders and Bucs team so what. They beat the Jets in their home opener so what. Bills play great at home but are so-so on the road. The difference in tonite's game could come down to the homefield advantage and short week. I think the Jets have all the motivation to seek revenge and knock the Bills back in the standings to hurt their playoff chances. This may be the last game Jets win this season before they start going in full tank mode But those 3 teams BUF has beat are better than the NYJ, and they have a common opponent in the Falcons which the Bills beat in ATL and NYJ lost to at home. Plus the Jets are banged up, and the Bills might have Benjamin to use in the redzone. I know the Jets have been ATS busters this season, but it will take a lot of mistakes by the Bills not not cover, and the Bills have made their money this season not making mistakes. BOL!
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Digitalkarma | 60 |
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Quote Originally Posted by MagicMan64: Another concept of quality handicapping is to filter out games where the method has lesser potential. One of my filters to skip games where the line is 7 or more. Another filter is to skip games where two bad teams are playing each other. Filtering also puts less money at risk and lowers the time and effort to handicap a number of games. One of my created metrics is inertia. Think of it as ball control effectiveness ranking. Ball control is like a tug of war. Usually the team with the better inertia wins the game. Agree with both of these. I also fade division games, and games with new QB's starting. But sometimes there isn't much left when you filter those two out. BOL
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MagicMan64 | 22 |
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BOL
Tested my system out the last 4 weeks. It's got a great record. Going all in for real this week and shitting myself. BOL to you and your system this week Kara!
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Karambola | 295 |
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Quote Originally Posted by GiantFan18: Great info. Thx Smurf No problem. I may go with SEA -8 as well. They get Duane Brown this week at LT, and WAS is without 3 starting linemen coming off division game and flying to the CLINK.
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SmurfSmash | 3 |
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Taylor is much better than a middle of the pack QB. He is very careful with the ball and almost never puts it in harms way, He is efficient as hell with his legs, and he'd rather live to see another day then force something. For those reasons I don't see how a bad route runner who just wants his QB to throw it up to him like Benjamin does, will be a good fit for Tyrod. Taylor enjoys winning more than stats.
Skrine & Wilkerson are playing, but Wilkerson looks like he's hurting. Claiborne and Kerley are out. Bills have the best +/- ratio in the league, and McCown is not afraid to throw the ball into coverage. Jets are a bottom 10 rush defense, Bills top 4. Neither team sacks the QB much. ASJ will be the one to kill the Bills if it happens. The Bills are a much better team overall, but it's a division game on a short week, who tf knows. One last note: away teams on TNF playing division opponents are 26-9 SU over last 10 seasons. Do with that info what you will. BOL Degens.
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PAPAWFRANK | 32 |
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