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I don't think Green Bay will cover in this one. My gut is telling me it is going to be one of those classic Green Bay games where they will be up two or three scores in first half, than find away to allow the Rams have a backdoor cover. I could see this being a Green Bay win by 4 or 6 and for that reason I am playing as follows: Rams +7 for game Green Bay -4.5 1st half Over 23 1st half |
LoveMeSomeMe | 3 |
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Just remember there is always a number that should shy bettors away. 11 and 10 may not seem like a big difference, but its all about value. Always have to keep in mind Vegas psychology. For instance I'm sure almost everyone was comfortable laying 10 points with Tom Brady against a backup QB in Washington. Simply, waiting and allowing the lines come to you allowed TB backers get them laying 7 points on live lines. The initial line is always twerked in Vegas favor, so why lay 11 and go crazy pulling out your hair all game when it has the same probability of landing on 10 point win. And if you miss out and they run away with it so be it, there is always more events to make money. Just don't lose money and money not wagered can't be lost money. |
LoveMeSomeMe | 3 |
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A ton of money now coming in on the Saints, making this line scary may be inflating too much. I think the Bears could keep it close in the first half, so I will wait for the value. I liked the Saints laying 10 or less, so now I will just wait for a live line while the bears are keeping it close hopefully get a number below the 10 probably even better. If I don't get the chance for a better line so be it. With that being said, and since I will be waiting there is one prop bet that I could not resist. Jimmy Graham TD in game +255 BOL to all!! |
LoveMeSomeMe | 3 |
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Ravens -3 Ravens Alt line -10.5 Ravens margin of victory 7-12 +450 Ravens margin of victory 13-18 I am not usually a fan of backing this team, however today I really like this spot. Many people using the whole they won't do it 3 times angle and other ridiculous angles. Dogs covered all day yesterday so people will be inclined today to take them today especially in this one with a road favorite, its human nature. I see a low scoring game, raven defense dominating line of scrimmage something like 24-10. The margins of victory will wipe out most teasers with people seeing real value in the Titans +10.5. Vegas will cash nice. |
LoveMeSomeMe | 1 |
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seems like somehow this will land on 6, if pitt pulls it out the end of first half set it up |
FRANKtheBANKss | 239 |
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4 point game now the real test, lets see if pitt answers with a touchdown but missed xp to land perfectly on 6 for the game final. |
FRANKtheBANKss | 239 |
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That crap at the end of the half, did the refs just set up the backdoor cover now not as comfortable. Debating the hedge at the half |
FRANKtheBANKss | 239 |
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Thats why line came down, moving right the big money came in at 7.5 early in week. This line will not hit 7 again, and with that move people are jumping on Washington at the 6. Pitt either wins by 7 or its a blowout books will cash nice on this one. Lots of teasers out there with the Skins and the other game so would not be surprised to see Pitt by 14 or more. |
ThrowDemDarts | 13 |
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He must have the same agent as Ryan Leaf!! |
Battalion74 | 7 |
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This feels like a very fishy setup coming. The way the game is playing out right now Eagles just missing shots , dumb penalties and clock management for the seahawks, its almost as if they want to keep this thing a game to the half, hoping all seahawk bettors hedge with second half bets by backing the eagles at the half. Than depending on how the second half line posts seahawks come out and roll, still think double digit victory in cards for seattle with the way the margin of victory lines were priced. |
LoveMeSomeMe | 1 |
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@Contrarian21 Eagles last 3 they have done pretty descent allowing 3.8 ypc and avg 140.3 total rush yards. Last 3 Home eagle D 5.1 per carry 158.3. Overall this season 4.2 per carry 133.4. And all home games 4.7 per carry 142.8. Not really stifling. So yes a returning running back and a quarterback that can not only make plays with his legs but thru the air. Looks like pretty good reason. GL CJM!
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cjm2008 | 12 |
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Taking Packers -.5. If the books thought bears had any shot in covering think they would have posted Chicago -6 at least since they do get the kick. They are going to get people who took Bears plus the points at beginning doubling down because they perceive more value with more points. Also throw in the fact that the Margin of victor for Pack at 24-30 was a measly 5/1 at beginning of game, these usually over 10/1 minimum. Think Pack wins in blowout.
GL to all |
LoveMeSomeMe | 2 |
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I have been liking the bears plus the points all day until I checked covers and how the prop bets are being price. It seems everyone on here is leaning on the bears, and than looking at the various props it swayed me to take the Packers tonight. For me I believe lines are set on games with props and everything all tied to how it will play out obviously. The props and margin of victory lines pricing had sealed it for me. Packers -8 only 1 unit because if the bears do cover and I lose big going against my initial gut I will be disgusted. GL to all!! |
LoveMeSomeMe | 3 |
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This is the dumbest thing thinking the NFL is fixed. Fixed would mean a certain outcome regardless, in a game like football just think of how many people would have to be in on it to be fixed. This goes without saying may there be some refs who make questionable calls to sway toward one side they may have interest in maybe. Factor in to the amount of bad calls in a game that would have to be called to actually sway it would be obvious. But to say fixed is absurd. Also, throw in the fact that its nice for vegas to make money on games, but normally they make money regardless as their long term main objective is to get a 50-50 split and collect vigs. That is why a game like tonight, you think they really care they were almost spot on with the 50-50 split. They collect vigs, and get clowns that consistently bet teasers and parlays. |
TruthIsLight7 | 26 |
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Like the ML, also put in margin of victory to boost odds Bears by 1-6 and Bears by 7-12 |
FRANKtheBANKss | 35 |
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@davemsh Like Bears when looking at line movement it does look like its begging bears action, looks like all signs point to Minny right play, but if you follow the trend of the money being bet, not tickets looks like brilliant move by the books. Public money bet Vikings early in week at -2.5 figuring they could win by field goal with huge number of tickets moving to -3. Than all of a sudden big money, still not alot of tickets came in on the Bears and the sportsbook found the 50/50 split they are usually looking for just sit and collect the vig. I think they moved it to the 3.5 to confuse the smart money that usually takes line movements into their capping to instill doubt and hopefully sit on sidelines and not take the bears or to think maybe vikings is the play leading to take Minny. 50/50 split on spread, massive money bet on over by the public and factor in teasers get Minny at +2.5 and over 35, books going to score nice tonight. Collect vig, make massive money on o/u and teasers Like bears points and moneyline. Looks like a 17-14 type game Bears |
davemsh | 11 |
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So Arizon State has Herm Edwards, and basically 15 returning starters. UTSA has very young inexperienced team, returning only 5 and mainly defense. I am waiting to see the line movement some more but now leanin heavy with UTSA +17.5 just because line has been acting very shady and looks like bait. Opened at 17.5, heavy public action brought it up to 20, with 98% of public on, than moves back down to 17.5 while the public was still pounding late afternoon. Forget the lean more money coming in on ASU and line not moving. UTSA +17.5 |
LoveMeSomeMe | 3 |
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I don't think this one is as easy as people think, Cobb is on the mound, and yes he got roughed up his first outing, but that was against the Red Sox. Also, career wise he pitches dominantly against the tigers. The wind is supposedly blowing out at 15 mph, which obviously helps the over, but they need to hit the ball first. Actually, I am on the other side, I have the O's and the under in this one. BOL
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Doubleadownon12 | 7 |
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I think Ian Kennedy gets the job done tonight for KC, the Angels have been on a tear, they are now traveling from Texas to play the day after, and also they have some trouble at Kaufman Stadium. Good value here too, will be low scoring but Royals will prevail I believe.
KC +144
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LoveMeSomeMe | 2 |
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Well the Yankees and Red Sox sure came alive in both their games, and usually they have several high scoring affairs in their series. After the last two high scores against supposed top pitchers no way it can go under. Wrong the umpire also posts strong under results when the total is posted at 9.
Taking under 9 NYY/Bos |
LoveMeSomeMe | 2 |
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