The MLB season was on the brink of cancellation, but we will have games played in the 2020 season, with the revised Opening Day on July 23. The delay to the season means that MLB betting fans will have a condensed 60-game schedule to dive into, with each team playing 40 divisional games and 20 interleague games against their geographical equal.
The National League East was already shaping to be one of the most competitive divisions in baseball this season, as the top four teams, including the defending World Series champion Washington Nationals, originally had projected win totals between 85.5 and 91.5.
Now, with these teams only facing each other - as well as the AL East - the margin for error is even slimmer, as four squads have projected wins totals between 31.5 and 33.5.
We turn our attention again to the MLB odds for regular-season win totals and our Andrew Caley slides into his MLB betting picks headfirst, giving his best Over/Under win predictions for the National League East.
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST 2020 SEASON WIN TOTALS
| Team | New 2020 Win Total | Original 2020 Win Total | Odds to Win NL East |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 33.5 | 91.5 | +200 |
| Washington Nationals | 33.5 | 89.5 | +240 |
| New York Mets | 32.5 | 86.5 | +300 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 31.5 | 85.5 | +330 |
| Miami Marlins | 24.5 | 63.5 | +5,000 |
ATLANTA BRAVES – O/U 33.5
The Braves won 97 games on their way to claiming their second consecutive NL East title in 2019, and they have a strong core with superstar Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman. They're missing some key pieces from last season, most notably Josh Donaldson and Dallas Keuchel, but they brought in Marcell Ozuna and Travis d’Arnaud to supplement the offense, while veteran Cole Hamels (currently injured) was added to the rotation as the Braves hope young guns Mike Soroka and Max Fried take the next step. With every game meaning so much in this condensed season, bullpens are going to play a huge factor. The Braves had, statistically, the best bullpen in the division last season, and combined with one of the strongest rosters in the NL East, they should be able to come out of this fight to reach the postseason.
Pick: Over 33.5
MIAMI MARLINS – O/U 24.5
The Marlins rebuild continues into Year… whatever it is, under Derek Jeter. The Fish have won 63 and 57 games in each of the past two seasons, but 2020 was looking like the year in which the Marlins' rebuild could start to bear fruit. Jeter restocked the farm system with some players capable of making an impact with the Big League club this season, and they also followed the Detroit Tigers and brought in some veterans to support their youngsters, including Corey Dickerson, Jonathan Villar and Jesus Aguilar. Their rotation was also a pleasant surprise in 2019, ranking 16th in starter ERA, and if this was a full 162-game season, I'd say the Marlins had a good shot at topping their projected win total... but since their opponents will only be within arguably the toughest division in the MLB, plus the always-dangerous AL East, it's looking like another season below expectations.
Pick: Under 24.5
NEW YORK METS – O/U 32.5
The Mets were one of the more fun teams in baseball last year, making multiple late-season pushes for the final NL Wildcard spot before ultimately coming up short, but still tallying 86 wins last year. Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil should build off their 2019 campaigns and lead a lineup that has a nice mix of young talent and veteran leadership, while Jacob deGrom is arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball. But the Mets also have a lot of question marks: with Noah Syndergaard gone for the year following Tommy John surgery, can the rotation after deGrom hold up behind Marcus Stroman, Steven Matz, Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha? Can closer Edwin Diaz bounce back after a tough first year in the Big Apple, and can free-agent addition Dellin Betances make a difference for one of the MLB's worst bullpens last year? The Mets will also play more interleague games against the Yankees than any other club, giving them the toughest schedule of any team in the division. We like the Mets, but all signs point to them coming up short in 2020.
Pick: Under 32.5
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES – O/U 31.5
The Gabe Kapler era in Philadelphia is over, as the Phillies brought former Yankees manager Joe Girardi into the fold. The move was facilitated by a poor 2019 in which the Phillies, despite boasting a strong lineup, won just 81 games. Philly is hoping leadership from Girardi and new shortstop Didi Gregorius (one of Girardi’s favorite players in New York), can get it over the top in 2020. Didi joins what should still be a potent Phillies lineup, led by Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto, but with all those big names the team was far too inconsistent at the plate last summer. On the pitching side, Aaron Nola regressed a bit last season, Jake Arrieta seems to be trending downwards and Zack Wheeler has a lot of work to do to prove he was worth his $118M free-agent paycheck. The Phillies' most glaring hole is their bullpen, which was far from great in 2019 and did little to improve this offseason. We've already mentioned how important relievers will be, so unless Hector Neris, Seranthony Dominguez and co. can do better than 2019, they could be the Phils' downfall.
Pick: Under 31.5
WASHINGTON NATIONALS – O/U 33.5
The defending World Series champions enter 2020 in a very interesting spot. The Nationals were able to re-sign World Series MVP Stephen Strasburg to a long-term deal, securing one of the major’s best rotations with Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin. However, the Nats did lose their other postseason hero, Anthony Rendon, to the Los Angeles Angels, and didn’t do much to replace him. Eric Thames hit 72 home runs over the last three seasons but has a big hole in his swing, while Starlin Castro is a solid veteran 2B with a little bit of pop in his bat. That said, this lineup is still very talented, led by Juan Soto, one baseball's next big stars, the speedy Trea Turner and hitting machine Howie Kendrick, who should get plenty of at-bats with the NL also implementing the Designated Hitter for this season. With elite starting pitching, a solid lineup and the confidence of a championship, I’m betting there’s no World Series hangover.
Pick: Over 33.5
UNDERSTANDING MLB SEASON WIN TOTALS
Sportsbooks will post projected win totals for every MLB team before the season starts. The numbers are projections for the amount of wins a specific team will get in a given year set accurately enough in hopes of getting an even amount of dollars wagered on both the Over and the Under. These markets open before Spring Training, close when the regular season begins and don’t cash out until the season is over eight months later. So, be prepared to ride out your investment.
MLB season win total odds will usually look like this:
- Washington Nationals Over/Under 33.5
This means you can bet the Nationals to have more than or less than 33.5 wins. So, 34 or more wins and you cash an Over bet and 32 or fewer wins and your Under is the winner.
Most of these odds are juiced to -110 each way, meaning you would need to bet $110 to win $100. If adjustments are made, due to players changing teams, getting hurt or liability (amount wagered on a certain side), then usually the number would change, for example: the Nationals move from 33.5 to 34.5.
HOW TO BET MLB REGULAR SEASON WIN TOTALS
There are many strategies to consider when making an MLB regular-season win total bet. First and foremost, you're looking for value. Has a sportsbook overvalued a player acquisition or undervalued the strength of a division? Just because the Braves won 97 games last year (the equivalent of almost 36 wins in a 60-game season), doesn’t necessarily mean they'll go Over their win total of 33.5 this year. With a little bit of research, you can find some real value in the numbers.
Also, consider the length of your investment. As mentioned before, MLB regular season win totals need to be locked in prior to the Opening Day of the MLB season and don’t cash out until the season ends. That’s a long time to wait out a bet. If you are betting the Mets to go Over 32.5 wins, but they stumble out the gates, you’ve got a season-long sweat on your hands.
Finally, shop around. Different sportsbooks will offer slightly different totals. If you like the Phillies to improve but don’t love the number at 31.5, maybe another book doesn’t have as big of a liability on Philadelphia and has a number of 30.5 or even 30.
Find more great betting strategies in our How to Bet section and join the conversation with thousands of serious basketball bettors in our MLB Betting Forum.
WHERE CAN I BET ON NL EAST WIN TOTAL ODDS?
Most online books and casinos offer futures bets on MLB regular-season win totals, even with this condensed season. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live.
