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Haven't been on this site in years. I took Oregon last night due to nothing more than instinct. I'm a chess player and one of the major factors in improving your game is to understand "pattern recognition." (This is also true of most things in life, but especially when it comes to analysis.)
Anyway, "gut" and instinct are about unconscious recognition of familiar scenarios. My brain tells me to take A & M, but my gut tells me the smarter play is on Oklahoma. Bob Stoops has a boatload of experience and I like that they are the dogs. This is a "situational" play for me. Oklahoma's losses this year were pretty damn close. I'll even predict an upset. Just giving some food for thought. But generally, when the numbers heavily lean in favor of a team and the line doesn't reflect it, I always question the "give-me" play. I'm putting a dime on Oklahoma and a nickel on the moneyline. If I lose, I can live with it as I feel I made the smart play. On the other hand, if Oklahoma loses, I hope they get blown out so I don't have to sweat it out with false hope. But for all the experienced ones on this board, and there are tons, I think what I say rings true. Whether it pans out or not, in the long run, I'm on the right side of 50-50 more times than not. Hope this helps. Ultimately, it can't just be about numbers or we'd all be millionaires.
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Covers | 119 |
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Quote Originally Posted by pcz: I like your reasoning here, but you're missing one thing: homefield advantage. I feel like Houston will not only shut down Rice (rice may score some points early), but they'll score a ton as well. The QB's ratio to TDs vs. INTs is nuts and is almost unheard of right now in the season. Houston covers by at least 24. I'm just hoping the FG turns into a TD instead. For all I know, it could be 54-14 or 54-10. Homefield speaks to me because it's Texas Football. Homefield is always huge in Texas. BOL everyone: My takes: Hou -27.5 Miami -13.5, Under 49 The Longhorns would contradict your statement about Texas' teams and home field advantage. But I get your reasoning. Unfortunately, I think you're falling into a trap. Although, Keenum's numbers are crazy-sick, don't you think the oddsmakers know this too? If we capped this game purely on factors like that, then I'd be all over Houston. But I think the situation calls for reverse reasoning. Just my take. Hope you win, though. I won't complain if I lose this one, only because I'm not forcing this play. Gud luck.
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Covers | 90 |
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Quote Originally Posted by acutance: I've had a bad run with Packers, (laid the points and lost) Colts, (took the points and lost) Ravens, (laid the points and lost) Huskeys, (took the points and lost) and so on. Often the dog covers, but not always. Sometimes I come back with a second half bet, but last night with Pitt that last TD was a killer. Kind of like a prostate massage when you realize the doc has a hand on each shoulder. But looking back, I see the home team covered in every instance, whether favorite or dog. So going into another game this week, I'll take the home team! And suspecting that VA may just get shut down by Miami, I'll lean Under. Meanwhile, I'm working on a three volume treatise arguing that once the spread is a factor, any outcome is a random event. Shit. You had to take Miami, didn't you? With your streak, you're going to kill mine. Lmao. I'm all over Miami and Rice. And seriously considering the Under in the Rice game. GLA.
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Covers | 44 |
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Something else to keep in mind. Miami' is 15-2 su all-time on Thursday night. Both teams coming off short weeks. Jacory Harris is looking for revenge from last year's pounding at Virginia. Nothing like motivation. |
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I've hit all my games this week. (U can verify on threads). Let's keep the trend going. Just put a play on Rice +28. If o/u goes to 71 or better, I will play under. Miami has made me too much money on Thursday night not to play them. But if it goes to 14-1/2, no play. Houston's blowout last week was a result of favorable turnovers. They could have easily scored 14 pts. less. Rarely does the ball bounce favorably for a team two wks in a row. From experience, two high-powered offenses usually cancel each other out, not saying Rice is high-powered. But the over should really be at 72 based on my math. It opened up at 71 (i think). To me, the enticement is to go for the over. But cross-town rivals have a way of stepping up their defenses. As for Miami, their strength of schedule speaks against taking Virginia. As this is the marquee game, look for home-team blowout.
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Covers | 90 |
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Word of caution. Never bet against Miami on Thursday night! The deciding factor for me is the foregoing plus strength of schedule.
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Covers | 44 |
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Never chase after bad money with good.
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Covers | 139 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BombaBookie: over 21 1st I don't see how so many people are so comfortable with Pitt, maybe I am missing something... BOLTALL I'm never comfortable with any play I make. If I am, I know I need to reassess. This game stinks more than my shit. But I always bet with my head, not with my heart. The system I have works well. I haven't had a losing season in 5 years. More do to better betting discipline and consistency than anything else. I still think the right play is Pitt. But the play stinks no matter how you step on it.
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Covers | 139 |
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Quote Originally Posted by drcomer: I said that there were 2 factors in setting a line, you assumed that I meant they were 50/50. They are NOT. The public lean is what makes and moves lines. My point was that some people seem to think that STATS alone are what set lines and are the best way to cap games. I was trying to enlighten some of our friends so there don't become the sheep that the odds makers want them to be. You totally misunderstood my post. But we do seem to be on opposite sides of this one. GL. Someone has to win! My apologies if I misread. And I agree that relying heavily on stats is probably the worst way to cap. If it stays at 10, we can both not lose. Either way good luck.
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Covers | 139 |
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Quote Originally Posted by drcomer: These lines are set based on 2 things... 1 - what odds makers think the outcome of the game will be and... 2 - what odds makers think the public is going to lay money on Seeing how everybody seems to still be blinded by the Pitt/USF game thinking if Pitt can do that to USF what are they going to do to UConn... Odds makers know that they can edge this line up a few points because they will still get the action they want on Pitt UCONN +10.5 Disagree. I seriously doubt the oddsmakers were shading the number. If anything, that number was set to entice everyone onto UCONN. And, predictably, the public is pounding UCONN. Personally, I think it's a reverse line shift at 10-1/2. In addition, predicting the outcome generally has little to do with making a line. Most of the factors going into making a line is formulaic. Once a number is established, then the human factors come into it, like public perception. But I hope everyone wins taking UCONN. I'm still on Pitt. If i don't win, no big deal. I've accumulated a healthy bankroll, so I can sustain a loss. But this is a trap game. And I rarely take favs.
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Covers | 139 |
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As I said earlier in this thread, I think the right play is Pitt. I'll definitely put a play on Pitt. Just a question of how much. All of u sound like veterans, so u know that at some point u have to chuck the stats out the window. This is another situational play for me. I've been on fire in the past ten days. I even hit my first hockey game, even though all i did was toss a coin. I'm due for a loss, I just hop it's not tonight. GLA
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Covers | 139 |
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If I touch this, which I probably will, I like Pitt. I'm not a data cruncher, I'm a watch-and-see situational player. The last game for Pitt was mistake after mistake. Usually, after such a debacle, the week after rights itself. I see Pitt getting a couple of key turnovers. And I think Pasqualoni is the worst coach. I'm laying the chalk.
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Covers | 139 |
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Looking good for me. Wish I had balls to put something on $line. And pissed off I didn't go with under. Got scared away b/c everyone kept talking about it. But I'll be happy with a cover. Take the win whenever u can get it.
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Covers | 139 |
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mj, I'm on Troy at +6-1/2 and +7 respectively. I didn't go crazy with it. And i don't have the balls to put anything on $line. Plus your not getting best value on $line. Stick to the spread. I don't love this game. But I'm a situational bettor, and I like Troy in this situation. Anyway this is my last post. GLA
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Covers | 139 |
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Bad move, MJ. One thing i've noticed is the correlation between line and money line. The money line for the most part is low-balled in this game. It should be around +230 to +240. Someone is afraid of getting pounded. I mean, maybe it's just my book screwing around with me. I know programs can crunch a player's numbers and patterns and adjust lines to screw players. The two books I looked at were +220 and +230. When the line jumped to 6-1/2, one offshore only increased money line by +10. Anyway, food for thought.
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Covers | 139 |
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This game is very fishy. (So are women, but we don't need to discuss that now). Past seven meetings, the closest a game has been is 9 pts. The offensive and defensive pt. differential is +14 if favor of fiu. Then why sucker the line? I can't help but play every game, so if I must, my system tells me Troy. Go figure. In the end, the books get the money anyway. I'd go for the under, but I don't want to jinx it for the rest of u.
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Covers | 139 |
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Jesus christ, are we here to help each other or rag on each other. IF the latter, the ladies room is down the hall. This game is very fishy. (So are women, but we don't need to discuss that now). Past seven meetings, the closest a game has been is 9 pts. The offensive and defensive pt. differential is +14 if favor of fiu. Then why sucker line? I can't help but play every game, so if I must, my system tells me Troy. Go figure. In the end, the books get the money anyway.
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Vegas55 | 36 |
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You're right, Illinoisboy, BidDaddy made it a legend. But the streak is gone. I like troy here. They're playing for dignity at this point. It's a division rival and I see as a 3-pt game or upset. I usually throw stats out the window in some games, like this one. Tonight, I got paid huge taking jaguars on $ line and spread and half-time spread. Altogether, made over $4k. In my experience, tuesday night games are usually fluky as far as spread. I'd tend to go against the grain on this one. That line, even at 6 - 6 1/2 looks too enticing if your on FIU. Anyway, good luck everyone. I love hearing anyone beating the man. Doesn't happen often enough.
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Covers | 139 |
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Completely agree, Tep!
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joegthakid | 24 |
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Amazing. I'm trying to help someone w/bona fide info. and someone has to contradict it like he's the last word on the matter. For your info, most books still use pen and paper. Most books don't have the sophistication to to set up PPH sites. And just as many would rather not because of the Federal implications. I use three books, and every one of them is pen and paper. And these are heavy hitters. One of them also has PPH, but I don't use anything that can leave a digital footprint.
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joegthakid | 24 |
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