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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly: NFL lines are extremely tight. Any sort of value is a good thing but I really start to pay attention when the value crosses a key number such as 0, 3, 4, 7, 10 So I'm guessing you're taking a long look at the 49ers and the Ravens?
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si1ly | 81 |
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Any leans/thoughts on MNF tonight Si1ly?
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si1ly | 104 |
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si1ly do you have any leans/plays for MNF tonight?
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si1ly | 52 |
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What's the handle for that guy who does the 1st inning runs props? Did he stop posting?
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prophet777 | 1 |
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All of those stats are for regulation only.
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followmylead | 10 |
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In 11 games vs. teams w/ similar PACE, OFF EFF, DEF EFF stats (SAS, OKC, DEN), LAC was a ridiculous 111 of 216 (51.4%) from 3P. Yet in those games, the average total was 202.
In the 3 actual regular season matchups between LAC/SAS, LAC shot over 40% and SAS over 44% from the 3P line, both of which is 5% over their season averages. In those games, the average total was 207. The line is set at 191, so with all that said, I'm going to bet on regression, fade the public, and take the UNDER. |
followmylead | 10 |
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Si1ly, are you going to have 2nd round series breakdowns available? Great job on the first round predictions! Definitely very helpful.
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si1ly | 88 |
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I put 1u on a Bulls/Spurs Finals Matchup at +5100 on 5dimes back in February. It's at +450 now. Let's do this!!
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Odds1_stinker | 39 |
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Si1ly, any chance you're going to have time to post the breakdowns for tonight's games? Either way, thanks man, always appreciated!
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si1ly | 27 |
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I second the request for OKC/PHO and UTA/POR. Also would like SAS/SAC if possible.
Thanks so much Si1ly! You're the man!! |
si1ly | 9 |
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Better luck today Si1ly! Huge card for you to find value. We gotta just keep believing in the numbers!
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si1ly | 27 |
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THANKS AS ALWAYS! Very helpful!
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si1ly | 6 |
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THANKS!
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si1ly | 12 |
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TRISTANS, if you're doing so well reading these stats, why don't you share with the rest of us? Si1ly takes all this time sharing his statistical work, so isn't it fair for the rest of us to do the same? (And yes, I've definitely shared some patterns and statistical trends that I found using Si1ly's H/A Rankings in the past on this board too--in case you were wondering why I don't share. )
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si1ly | 22 |
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5 turnovers, 6 points in the 4th. Pretty ugly.
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Umuahia | 87 |
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T-Wolves are 2 for 10 from the field with 4 turnovers in the first 7 minutes of the 4th---same amount of turnovers as points. Just not gonna get it done.
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Umuahia | 87 |
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Quote Originally Posted by si1ly: Great idea. Here is condensed spreadsheet for the four factors to find the differential between offensive and defensive rates. I've included at the bottom of the spreadsheet the links to TeamRankings where you can collect the data. It's as simple as copy and paste into the spreadsheet. Anyone with these links can edit them so if you chose to edit them please only include accurate information from the links provided. When it's all up to date, I'll plug the numbers into my formula and I'll be able to update the home/away power rankings at least one more time before the end of the season. NBA Predictor Model Home Splits NBA Predictor Model Away Splits I just updated the forms as of 12am PST. Looking forward to your formula ranking update! Thanks so much for doing that and sharing with the rest of us. |
si1ly | 29 |
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^^^^Just trying to help out.^^^^
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Umuahia | 130 |
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NO ONE ASK WHETHER HE HAS A PLAY OR NOT! HE WILL POST THEM IF HE PLAYS (OR LEANS) THEM!
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Umuahia | 130 |
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Quote Originally Posted by PitchBlack2011: I have free time right now and would volunteer my time to update the home/away team rankings...the system I was using with those was hitting at a rate of 69% since the All Star break... Let me know, I will update them and post them every Monday...
+1 I would definitely be willing to volunteer my time to help updating the Home/Away Rankings. I can probably enter the data in on a Google Doc without having to even know your formula. |
si1ly | 29 |
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