Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity |
---|---|---|---|---|
It would seem with moneylines that MLB is the best shot at getting the streak. I was wondering what your opinions are on this?
Newsboy |
newsboy | 6 |
|
|
Boise 42
SJ St 38 |
Lou | 50 |
|
|
Baltimore ATS
24 |
Lou | 138 |
|
|
Its basically a system using line moves and consensus with some trends...
The board is 30 something games deep so I would like to make a couple of rules Rule #1 No taking bad teams When you take bad teams you can expect bad things to happen because lets face it they are not that good. Rule #2Stay off the road This rule is only applicable to college ball because they have so many games. It does not mean that road teams can't win or cover I would just like to think I increase my chances of winning by looking at the teams that are home. So the first part of my recipe is a mixture of line moves and consensus. I will break it down as I list the games as to how I came to that conclusion. I look at two places for consesnsus, the old standby (WL) and a sportsbook. I like the sportsbook because it actually shows money that is placed on a team I will list them as (SB) Indiana +8 Line opened at 7.5 and has been pushed up to 8 almost everywhere I looked--it looks as for the line forecast it may move back down to 7.5 so I am grabbing it now. WL: 70.83% SB: 86.95% Scoop Intangibles: I can't just bet a team on line move and/or consensus because then I would always be on some pretty bad teams for the most part. Indiana is off an upset loss against Ball St and are better than they played while the Spartans are off a big win against the Irish. Trends You can always find a trend for the team you like so to me its like a girl in a bikini, they look nice but they don't really show you anything. When ANY NCAAF Team played as a Road team - Vs Big Ten opponent - Coming off 1 ATS win they are 78-126 straight up! I like Pittsburgh and Virgina but all are on the road so i don't want to break my rule if I don't have to. Here is an interesting case: Florida -22.5 I am not going to play this game but according to where I see my line moves they opened up around 24 and since have dropped down to 22.5 Look at the consensus numbers WL: 62% SB: 85% So everyone is betting on Florida but the line is dropping why is this? I have seen some good cappers comment on this and would love to hear more angles on it. Here is my theory. The public is betting on Florida but the line is dropping. Dropping the line if anything would indicate that the books are not adjusting to get even action because if anything this calls for more Gator cash, so my only assumption is the line was off to begin with. The books opened Florida high assuming the Gator action but even with the Gator action the line is too high and they have under valued Miss St. Knowing they will most likely never get even action they can move it freely, they want to get close to the number over riding even action since it won't happen in this game. So that was my long winded way of saying I would take Miss St, but alas as mentioned, I will pass. Eastern Michigan +6.5 Slight line move from an open at 6 and the numbers are: WL: 54% on NI SB: 81% on NI Scoop Intangibles: Further investigation into the game shows that E. Michigan could be considered a bad team at 1-3 but look at that teams they have been beaten by, Toledo Michigan St and Maryland, those teams are not too shabby. That would also help us on the line because the line reflects that these teams are not so far apart but the bad record makes it look like they are. Northern Illinois is 2-8 ATS as favorite and Eastern Michigan is 5-1 ATS off BB ATS losses. More to come Newsboy |
newsboy | 1 |
|
|
Reds +111
Reds are one of the hottest teams down the stretch and Votto and Bruce are getting the job done. The Astros are going through the motions and I will take the dog here. Volquez: 12-5 TSR when the money line is +125 to -125 Red Sox +101 Wakefield has been miserable lately but he can make up for it with a good game tonight to help his team make it in the playoffs after Beckett failed last night. Lee has had a great year but becoming hittable late in the season. Blue Jays +101 The jays at home as dogs are not a bad play in this spot. The yankees are a veteran team that know the right time to cash it in for the season and after the big game to close out Yankee Stadium this is it. Litsch has had better numbers than Moose in his last three starts.Litsch: TOR 83-55 at home when playing on Tuesday White Sox +130 Ozzie challenged his pitcher to win a big game and here is his chance to get the job done. The Twins are 2-6 in the last eight and are in trouble tonight. Vazquez: 22-7 TSR vs. division Newsboy |
newsboy | 1 |
|
|
First Half:
GB +1.5-105 Under 26 straight and parlayed.... NewsBoy |
newsboy | 1 |
|
|
I am taking the Packers +1.5-105 in the first half...I like the under in the first half too and so will take under 26 and wrap them up in a parlay and hope for some good things to happen!!
Newsboy |
newsboy | 8 |
|
|
chopasu, WTF are you talking about? I am not selling anything if you don't like what I write or how I word it then beat it kid your bugging me!
|
newsboy | 8 |
|
|
niners -.5 second half
|
newsboy | 8 |
|
|
adding Saints and Colts in the first half for another great winning day!!
|
newsboy | 8 |
|
|
adding: Oakland +10
|
newsboy | 8 |
|
|
Okay there is one play everyone is on but don't fall for it--Take the Vikings!!
read the press the move to Gus Ferotte is good for the offensive and everyone but Jackson's mom is rallying around this one. This will spark this team and they will beat the Panthers by ten--read the papers!! Dog of the day: Arizona ML and +3 Washington is not as good as the Cardinals and the improvement is on defense for the birds. The real test of the year for them they will pass with flying colors! Blowout of the day! Colts -4 Jax is in some serious trouble and the Colts hit their groove and are ready to trash Jacksonville and what they bring to the table!! 6 pt three team teaser of the day: (I use a crazy formula to get these) Raiders +15.5 Seattle -3.5 Atlanta PK Parlay of the day: Houston +5 Tampa +3 Blowout of the Day part Two (this one is a dog) Saints ML +5 The Saints will beat Denver in their own backyard and bad. First Half play of the day: Dolphins +7 +100 Even money and you get the Dolphins and they need the defense to keep this close after Porter talked smack in the press. Chad throws well against the Pats and I envision a 10-10 halftime score. Is this good enough for everyone!!??!!! NewsBoy |
newsboy | 8 |
|
|
A bigger than normal play for me!
Air Force +6.5 +100 (2U) NewsBoy |
newsboy | 16 |
|
|
I play against line movement of the half at big games on TV (will explin more later if anyone cares to hear about it)
Adding: Tenn +3 ND +3 (both 1U |
newsboy | 16 |
|
|
ND/Michigan St.
Claussen looks tough for the Irish as the offense is having trouble responding. The defense is playing well and keeping them in the game but I have the Irish in the game so I have to be careful how I play this one.The line says that I should take the Spartans to run away with this in the second half and i could hedge my bet with it. Thinking.. I do like the over 21 though and will take a shot here. OVER 21 -105 1U Miami / A&M Started as a shootout but has slowed down in the second quarter. Miami has had some chances to pull away but can't seem to do it unless I see something out of the ordinary I am going to leave this one alone too. |
newsboy | 16 |
|
|
Saturday Record: Headliners (2U):1-1, -.20 Scoops: (1U) 0-1, -1.10 Halftimes: 2-1, +.90 Saturday Total: 4-3, +2.60 Overall on the
year NCAA: 5-2, +4.70 Pending: Read All About it: Headliners: None Scoops: Notre Dame +8.5, Now here are my second half plays with some thoughts: Tenn / Fla--the Vols have a chance to get a score to end the half and they go for it and blow it. That could be a killer where if they scored they would have had motivation. Have Teen in the game and would like Florida in the second half but could middle myself and don't want that so I will pass. UNC/VT VT got a FG but it was only because they got a turnover deep in UNC territory. Hokies just have 80 total yards and the D line looks sweet for the Heels. Gage is the real deal at WR and VT can't contain him. UNC PK 1U Miami / A&M (coming up) Newsboy |
newsboy | 16 |
|
|
Well back again not a bad start to the day but looking to get better--
may have a halftime play on some of these games--does anyone have any thoughts? man the Vols are looking real bad early North Carolina is not looking too shabby..VT's young QB will be good in a year or at the end of this one... Irish eyes are not smiling but Michigan St is letting them hang around early... Miami / A&M are in a shootout!!! they may have over 50 by the half!! NewsBoy |
newsboy | 16 |
|
|
First half Plays: (All one unit aka Scoop Plays)
Miss St. +4-105 Pitt -.5 -105 Central Michigan +6 See ya at the half for the halftime edition!! NewsBoy |
newsboy | 16 |
|
|
Last play--I may be in here for halftimes but this is it for me
Read All about it: Central Michigan +10 Purdue may not know what hit them today playing Central Michigan.This is the third meeting between these teams in just over a year and Purdue has swept the boards which means its the chippewas that have the revenge. The boilermakers face the Irish and Penn St after this so may be looking ahead in the schedule. Central Michigan is 14-1 ATS off a road game. Daren Martin is back in the lineup and that can make all the difference on offense in this one. This one goes down to the wire and the points look s-w-e-e-t! NewsBoy |
newsboy | 16 |
|
|
Great I am new here and already got some ads in my posts, maybe I should just shut up
Headlines: Mississippi St +7.5 Don't let the 3-2 score last week fool you and think that the bulldogs cannot score. The yellowjackets have had some defensive issues with injury problems at linebacker. Mississippi State is 8-3 ATS in road games and Georgia Tech is 2-8 ATS off ATS win Georgia Tech is 2-14 as non-conference home favorites of less than 14 and 2-7-1 as favorite in its last 10 overall. The Bulldogs are 7-2-1 as road pups and 9-3 ATS in their last dozen on the highway overall. |
newsboy | 16 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.