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Thread Author irage Post Entries
osubuckeyes247
osubuckeyes247
OMFG, I can't believe I just backdoor covered that game.
Metallica2467
Metallica2467
Are you guys watching this? Houston is a mess.
osubuckeyes247
osubuckeyes247
Good luck boys, see you on the other side.
CalBear2009
CalBear2009
801 representing.

Being a former Ute (student not player), I love watching the Utes play. The advantage is the Utes are extremely balanced and focused. All you have to do is watch the practice scrimmages to know that (which are closed to the public). It's there offense that has the true athleticism and they arguably have the best special teams coach in the country and that makes them very dangerous.
After watching game tape on Goff, I'm worried. He has an uncanny ability to not just read his receivers, but anticipate their moves. That is a trait of an elite QB.

High risk game in IMO. Just can't get a good enough read to predict an outcome. I'd take the Utes if the line were closer to -4.
TRAIN69
TRAIN69
Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:

This week, I end your misery and pull the plug.



Overall 104-68 YTD

TOP 10 29-8-3 YTD



LSU -13

Miami +8.5

ECU +8.5



Looking at a ton of others (per usual) but think I will get better lines on most in the next few days.....I'll be around most evening until friday if ya wann talk some football....or tell me Im stupid.



Train,
You've put a lot into this over the years, but I hear you! Somethings change, while other things stay the same.

I know you'll appreciate this.....

"I need a blow job from Christy Turlington..get the f*&k outta here! Fifteen thousand dollars!"

BOL
osubuckeyes247
osubuckeyes247
Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:



90% of the time when I read a team will score X amount of points EASY.....It just doesn't happen.

Honestly, I hope Houston takes a big lead going into the half, then lets off the gas in the 2nd to allow SMU to score a couple of times.

41 - 27 Houston
osubuckeyes247
osubuckeyes247
This should be an interesting game. I'm with the general public on this one, I think SMU covers, but there is no question that Houston has the better offense.

SMU +26 is my pick.

I would lean towards OVER in this game, but I just don't have a clear picture about SMU's defense, if they can't slow Houston it could easily turn into a run away in the 2nd half.
Metallica2467
Metallica2467
Quote Originally Posted by saigonbynight:

How is Houston favor? I don't get it
Gl bro

My sentiment exactly, can someone explain why Houston is a good pick?

High risk game IMO, sub performance out of Houston and a winged QB for the Colts. Sounds like a mess to me.
phixer
phixer
Quote Originally Posted by U-S-A:

If you look at Arizona's numbers they appear better than they actually are. Their first three games were significant wins but they never faced a decent defense.  New Orleans, Chicago, and San Fran are not impressive defenses or impressive wins.  The first good defense Arizona faced (Rams) they lost the game outright.

I think the lines makers mentality is that the rams beat both seattle and arizona by 2-3 points.  Since Seattle won the game by 3 against Detroit, and they consider Arizona the same caliber team, then the line should be somewhere of the same (2.5). Then you have to take into account that Detroit should have technically won the game against the Seahawks and this time Detroit is home.

I think i just talked myself into Detroit after leaning AZ

The purpose of the line is draw action. Personally, I don't even use the line until it's time decide on my play. When I calculate the value of a game I typically assign a spread value (which I assume most of you do to). When the number favors the dog it's an easy pick, if it favors the favorite then I evaluate the strength and risk before taking it.

There is a mental game being played here too. In baseball one loss can snowball into 5,6 even 10 losses and each loss compounds the mental anxiety. Football is so competitive that you have to perform each week. Detroit is beating themselves and had they won against Seattle (a decent team) it might have gotten them over the losing mentality. Be that as it may, Arizona offense is more than capable of taking down Detroit and by my rough calculations I have them as -6.5 favorite.

GL, no matter which way go.
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



A lot of offshores have already posted a line.

My book just listed it at -3, I snagged it. I would have loved it at PK.
MLStreaker
MLStreaker
Quote Originally Posted by naesiy:


I believe this has been discussed in detail many times on this site. In the long run from a numbers standpoint, never a good idea to hedge unless you are hedging a 4 teamer (?).  If you are going to hedge, you should have just left off the last team, in this case, done a 7 teamer.  By hedging you are giving equity back to the house (in the form of additional vig on your hedged bet) which further decreases your parlay payout making the initial risk/reward even worse.  Why would you want to do that?  Unless of course the situation has changed tremendously from when you put the bet to now i.e. a major injury or severely bad weather or something.

Something to that effect...  I hope you didn't hedge.

You are spot on. Everyone's betting style is different and it's hard to argue when you have an opportunity to hedge and win. Never the less I also believe to beat Vegas you have to be bold. Very few grind out a living betting on sports. For me it comes down to this.

When you're hot, do you walk away or double down?

I am always glad to hear that someone made money.
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Congrats to all Lions backers 

Until late in the third I thought the spread wasn't in doubt. Peyton wouldn't survive one drive behind this OL.

Bengals are licking their chops.

Giving 10 points in a primetime game is always risky IMO. 

Couldn't agree more, Cincy is in the best position to get win against Seattle. I am really curious to see the line, if it's less than 5, I am going to hammer it.
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by anNFLfan:


Well, we only know that we are right after the game is over. Congrat to irage on DET tonight and Suuma for an almost perfect sunday. 

I'm not a fool, a lot of that is just lucky. I analyzed the game and that's what I read out of it. I had no money on this game, so it's a very small victory for me.

Still Suuma nailed his picks this weekend despite this game. I'm still shocked at the Rams pick.

Hope you all are +money this week.
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by irage:


I'm on Detroit +10. 10 points on MNF, not likely. Seattle is good at home, but I think key is in turnovers for this game. Seattle better than Detroit except in the red zone and that makes me think the Lions will try to keep the game close and work towards owning last possession to steal the game.

17 - 24 Seattle

It's not that complicated.......score was a little off, but Detroit did exactly what I thought they'd do and turnovers were the key.
MLStreaker
MLStreaker
Did you hedge? The majority seem to feel it's better to hedge, I disagree. There are couple of factors that would cause me to pause.

1. What is my risk vs reward?
2. What is the strength of the pick (how confident am I)

You're 7 of 8, that's amazing in it's self. I'd say you're hot and ride the wave, but I am gambler, sometimes I win, sometimes I lose.

You gotta be feeling pretty good right now, no matter what you chose.
suuma
suuma
Suuma,

WOW, you had an amazing weekend. Nice cap of that Rams game, never saw that coming.

I also had Cincy, pretty easy pick as they are by far the most balanced team right now.

Congrats on your big weekend.
suuma
suuma
Quote Originally Posted by anNFLfan:

None of the solid cappers I know is choosing Detroit. This is too good to be true :).

I'm on Detroit +10. 10 points on MNF, not likely. Seattle is good at home, but I think key is in turnovers for this game. Seattle better than Detroit except in the red zone and that makes me think the Lions will try to keep the game close and work towards owning last possession to steal the game.

17 - 24 Seattle
MLStreaker
MLStreaker
Don't hedge, worst case your out 10.00. Like someone said already, sit back enjoy the game and you might be up 1100. That would be sweet!
irage
irage
Quote Originally Posted by ROCKETS713:

3 winners for you sir. Hope you did well

I only bet the one game (Bengals -3.5), I love making money!
irage
irage
It doesn't have to be complicated......

Hope you made some cash.
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