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Sports,
I would appreciate if you keep posting these "uncut" plays, it is a great support for my research. |
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Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network: Dodgers+104 ... WhiteSox vs Indians UNDER 8.5 ... lol I think I'm just gonna give up I suck too bad. |
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ca_cris, good !
I have only made the calc for the 3 games I mentionned, will try to do the yankees and mets games by tonight but I'm busy right now. |
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Quote Originally Posted by PuckHog: Question(probably stupid)but I have to start somewhere
using Base Runs Basic formula above do you calculate for each player in the starting line up vs starting pitcher first of all???or am I way off base(no pund intended)??
I did my first calculation using ELLSBURY vs WEAVER in tonights Bost/LAA game!
Hello, you have to apply the formula to the entire team stats (adding individual stats) and not individual players, read the wikipedia article on base runs. |
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Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent: CHW/CLE = 13.85 line - 8.5 CLE RL is worth a look. STL/PIT = 5 line is 9 (not as strong as CHW/CLE simply cause they have way more ABs and #'s to use) LA/PHI = 6.6 runs line is 10 Insight is more than welcome Hi vincent, I have : CHW/CLE total runs 13 PIT/STL total runs 6.5 LAD/PHI total runs 14 ! So we're pretty close for the first two, but not the last one. Also I would like to know from sports_network, since I have 9.92-3.8 for the phillies, am I better betting on the over at 10 or on the winning team ? I would guess on the team since the difference is bigger, but the odds are better on the over. |
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I meant the Padres vs Cubs game in my question.
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Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network: MLB formulated system releases Tuesday 05/12/09 :
Pirates+103
Diamondbacks-185
DevilRays-131
Tigers+114
Dodgers vs Phillies OVER 9.5
Braves vs Mets UNDER 9
Padres vs Cubs OVER 8.5
Yankees vs BlueJays UNDER 9
a positive example.... How do you calculate for this game when there is potentially 3 players who have never faced the starting pitcher Rich Harden ? For Phillies vs Dodgers I have 5.65-7.09 so I'm fine with your over. I have the Cardinals winning at 6-3 though :( |
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Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent: This would be a no play but just to throw my number out and see if it is close to others ARZ/CIN - 9.89 RUNS SF/WSH - 7 like i said earlier in the thread I had 5.66-2.57 for SF/WSH so not too far from your number. Didn't do the calc for ARZ/CIN as there were too many batters that never faced the starting pitcher in Cin. |
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Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network: you may have 'slipped' on your reading of the applied mathematics attached to Base_Runs, and remember you also have Runs_Earned to incorporate... Could you give us a link to the Runs_Earned formula ? It's not in the wikipedia link and I can't find it anywhere. Congrats on your success, 70% is huge. |
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Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent: May I ask which form are you using? Basic? I got an Over play in the Mets vs Braves game but I still think Im missing something. I am going to go through this thread again and try to catch a few more things. Yes I use basic, lately I tried to calibrate the stats so that the total "at bats" is closer to the average of the total at bats of one MLB game... But i'm just doing research, I think my approach is probably wrong. My numbers are probably way less accurate than those of sports_network, but maybe I'll be able to tell the outcome of a game when there is a big gap in the score. |
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For today's games I have the Mets vs Braves at 9-3.4 and Giants vs Nationals at 5.65-2.57. Are you guys close of these numbers ?
I miss batter vs pitcher data for the 2 other games. |
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Quote Originally Posted by HeaVin-Cent: I continue to come up with numbers that dont seem to be right. Most of the time the total runs are either in or close to double digits for each team. I use basic version and I also have this problem, I have big numbers for a lot of games (e.g 19-14 or something). The problem occurs when A is too big. Since A=H+BB-HR we have big numbers when a hitter has been at bat many times vs the pitcher. For batter vs pitcher stats I use Yahoo Sports : https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6751/batvspit;_ylt=Asu2wcNke4ddhp6D_ZidtQ.FCLcF?year=career&type=Pitching I would love sports network to explain clearly how he creates the game inning by inning because base_runs is a formula for an entire game. |
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Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network: gambool / You might want to re-apply, it appears you have drifted from the formula dramatically, (6.2+3.6~~9.8) Could you please post a clear example of your complete process for a given game. I'm lost, have done calculations for 5 hours and can't find not even close to the same results as yours for todays games. |
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Ok, so you do the calculations for every game every day and pick the best ones ?
For Braves vs Phillies I really have a huge score, so I thought it had a good "strenght" (I have 13-10 but i obviously might be wrong) |
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Ok, i've done it for 2 games but have to go out for now :
Braves vs Phillies O 9.5 Mariners vs Twins O 7.5 I'm guessing you bet on game when there is a big difference on the score and on O/U when you're well over or under the number. For the Brave/Phillies game I have a tight score but big numbers. For the Mariners/Twins one, I miss some data for the Mariners but the Twins are gonna score more than 7.5 by themselves and Mariners are gonna get some runs too. |
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Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network: Hey! great call, and impressive, my numbers where Nationals 11 Dodgers 3..exclude the first inning,(6 runs, that were not predicted, but happened) and what do have? 14 correct, 11+3=14 This was my strongest lean, based on Manny Ramirez's bat being eliminated from the LA line up along with all sabermetric stats that he carries with him..at +135 the value was there, and was the 3rd time this season that the Nationals were a feature play that the system brought forward, needless to say, I went 'large' on the Nationals, and was successful for the third consecutive time.. Cool, i'll try to do it again for today's games and will see what you come up with. I'm wondering how you make the decision of playing for the O/U or for the game. Nice picks for yesterday by the way...5/7 |
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hey sports,
I don't really get how you use the Tango system to calculate Base Runs as there are too much variables for me that I can't find anywhere. Anyway, I tried to use the basic version of wikipedia on the National vs Dodgers game yesterday and found a score of 13-4, Nationals for the win. Are the results you found for this game close of my numbers ? They seem huge to me. |
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Quote Originally Posted by sports_Network: Your anglais is good to answer your question regarding pitching, each team has a designated "middle relief" pitcher or pitchers, and one "closer" which must be studied in detail; their appearance is predictable, as is the starting line-up, that is intact with stationary variables.. The exact formula that I am initiating in this experiment can be found at the Wikipedia link on page 1 of this thread, Thanks for your answer your help is greatly appreciated. I have questions about that wikipedia article. Wich form of the Base Runs formula are you using ? I'm guessing you calculate Individual Base Runs for every player in the team vs starting pitcher and then add up all the results to get the expected runs of the team ? I'll take a look at it tomorrow, you already gave me some nice ideas to work with. |
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Hello, I'm new to this forum and hope I will learn a lot !
I have studied the Base Runs formula and if I understand correctly, you use batter vs pitcher stats, but I'd like you to explain how you process since we only know the starting pitcher, so how do we integrate changes of pitcher during a game ? As for hitters, do you use the last game lineup ? Maybe you could post an example of how you procede for a given game if that's not too much to ask, although I understand that it's not the definitive version of your system, that would still be interesting to study. I have apply the Base Runs formula for some teams using the overall average stats per game, but the only thing that gives me is the runs expectation which is irrelevant for a special matchup. Note that english is not my native language so I apologize for any mistakes. |
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