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#1: St Louis Cardinals +100 I know that a lot of people subscribe to the ‘zig-zag’ theory in basketball playoffs, but it’s foolish to use the same strategy in baseball. Still, an overwhelming majority is on the Rangers tonight. Well, the ‘value’ clearly lies on the home underdog. I’m backing a better pitcher in Garcia (3.31 Xfip vs 4.10 / 3.4 tERA vs 4.6 / 54% GB-rate vs 34%) who is pitching at home where he was 9-4 (team 11-4) with a 2.55 ERA during the season. The fact that I can get + odds here is tremendous. I’m not even going to analyze this further. As for the UNDER, a couple of factors that make this a strong play: 1: Neither pitcher has faced this opponent in the past so the ‘unfamiliarity’ factor is in play 3: Busch Stadium is a #6 ‘pitchers park’ in the league. |
Covers | 16 |
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#1: St Louis Cardinals -119
A couple of factors here that leads me to choose the Cards in game 1. Wilson has really struggled in the playoffs, allowing 14 ER's and 6 HR"s in only 15.2 innings of work. That's not going to cut it. He's going up against a righty-heavy lineup on Wednesday. On the season Wilsons xFIP of 3.46 and K/BB of 2.89 against right handers, was a bit worse than his 3.22 xFIP and 3.0 K/BB against lefties. I know this difference is not that great, but at this point of the season any small 'factor' could make a difference in a tight game. Couple this fact with how much he's struggled lately, and I can see Cards find some success off him on offense. Carp had one poor outing in the post-season, when he pitched on 3 days rest @ Philly. This was his 1st time in his career pitching on 3-days rest so I'll give him a pass. In the other 2 starts he went 14 innings, allowing only 9 hits and 3 ER's. On the season Carp has an xFIP of 3.10 and K/BB of 4.04 against right-handers compared to 3.55 xFIP and 2.89 K/BB against lefties. That's a fairly significant variance and I expect him to be successful against a righty-heavy lineup of the Rangers. Cards are at home with a starting pitching matchup that favors them. With most other factors being pretty much equal, I like the home team to take game 1. |
Covers | 35 |
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Well, Jets are F**KED! This is just unbelievable!!! Turning off the TV. JETS SUCK!
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Covers | 100 |
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Well, The JETS look like they are grounded....doing NOTHING at all. The Fins are actually not looking too bad....except that stupid play call on third and a foot.....pass against Revis....when your receiver is a 4th round draft pick....
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Covers | 100 |
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Quote Originally Posted by oahuboy808:
Good thing I waited to put my bet in.. Feel much better at +7 then +6.5.. Final Plays: Miami +7 Miami +4 (half) BoL today guys!! Let's hope the Dolphins get their first win of the season!! Dont like being on the opposite side! Best of luck Mang! |
Covers | 100 |
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line is moving back in the right direction.....seeing lines at Jets -8.5 now on some books.... This is a tough game to cap....as Jets are home, but not playing good. Fins have backup QB in, (which might be a good thing) as Henne was Terrible (Sorry Big Daddy ) Bush cannot handle the load, but I suspect they will try to do that.....and they are not a "Redzone" team whatsoever. D is almsot non-existent.... If the Jets can limit the turnovers, I see a win of at least 10 points, however....we all know the "Dirty" Sanchez can do no such thing. I see an under game here as well, due to turnovers, running game, and bad coaching (as we saw in the St. Louis game...) So.....i have: Jets -6.5 (5 Units) Under 41 (3 Units) 7 Point Teaser.....Jets +.5 Under 48 (5Units) |
Covers | 100 |
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[Quote: Originally Posted by CanadaCup]
Plus the Brownies are coming off the bye...Cleveland +7
That is the only thing that concerns me!! The BYE,,,,but Raiders at -5.5.....I jumped on it pretty early.... feel pretty good. |
Covers | 35 |
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While I respect some of the opinions for you Cleveland backers, I just would like to understand WHY you think Cleveland WINS here, let alone covers. This will be the first home game to pay tribute to their fallen icon, AL DAVIS. This Raiders team is solid on both sides of the ball again.....and playing at home, against Cleveland.....I think this ends up 31-13.... |
Covers | 35 |
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UNDA for me!!!! |
Covers | 6 |
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liking Oakland here. -5.5 Tough for the Cleveland Steamers to play in the black hole! |
Covers | 35 |
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knicksfan......come back and we will talk AFTER the game. |
ejdav | 16 |
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Crimson- I respect your opinion. However, Minny is total garbage, and Tampon Bay has no serious threat (they just got trounced by SF) Dallas I agree, is not a visitor friendly stadium....but the Cowgirls continously show how inconsistant they really are. The Lions have a weak defense.....they have allowed points in the first half...and I think with the Bears running game.....it will keep them on the field longer....and they will be begging for a break. Fairley is making his debut.....but he is just that....a rookie. Not saying he is not a good player....but I think he needs some time to adjust.
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ejdav | 16 |
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BetUS has the Bears at +7!! Placing 3 Units on the Bears! |
ejdav | 16 |
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YES SIR!!! BEARS +6 |
MJ2345 | 68 |
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OK.....I have some things I wanted to share....and if anyone wants to comment....please do. I have not posted in a while, and wanted to get some perspective on my thinking. Just like yesterday......84% of public was on the Colts....KC wins outright. Line only moved 1 point...... 73% on the Eagles....thinking they would bounce back....Bills take it outright. Line stayed at -3 for the Eagles the entire time... 79% on the Saints.....Panthers covered. Line only moved 1/2 point in the right direction.....should have moved more in my opinion...... 77% on the G-Men......They lost outright. Line never vaired either way......stayed at -10..... Tonight, my thinking is based on this....the Lions open up at -6.....and its holding put. The Bears have played a tougher schedule, and the Lions have really not played a very strong team.....The public is all over the line at -6 for the Lions, thinking the Lions will post a DD win over the Bears. How many people actually picked KC to cover? OR even the Bills....based on PHILLY's situation....I saw LOTS of people on the opposite side of these picks. Based on that.....I will take the Bears +6, and be on the Vegas side. I will also tease the Bears to +13 and OVER 40. |
ejdav | 16 |
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Just like yesterday......84% of public was on the Colts....KC wins outright. Line only moved 1 point...... 73% on the Eagles....thinking they would bounce back....Bills take it outright. Line stayed at -3 for the Eagles the entire time... 79% on the Saints.....Panthers covered. Line only moved 1/2 point in the right direction.....should have moved more in my opinion...... 77% on the G-Men......They lost outright. Line never vaired either way......stayed at -10..... Tonight....the Lions open up at -6.....and its holding put. Based on that.....I will take the Bears +6, and be on the Vegas side. I will also tease the Bears to +13 and OVER 40. |
BigUnit | 80 |
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Oakland
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SaiGonVN1982 | 10 |
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TEXAS!
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Covers | 68 |
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I have the Ducks at -14.5..... but the biggest play for me is the UNDA! Under 65......Zona cant do shit on offense......
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Covers | 13 |
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hope your right on the Oregon UNDER........as I just put the farm on it!!! Seriously....I like the play.....and I down own a farm....but it was a good chunk!! We need Bid Daddy here to do his UNDA CHANT!!! |
retire_early | 5 |
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