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CMM -- any point totals you are looking at tonight?
I'm on the Dallas/Utah Over 191...that game looks like it should be played in the high 190's/low 200's. Collison is an uptempo PG and without Dirk, Dallas isn't looking to slow it up as much. Even in a back 2 back, I still like the over. Also like Sacramento/Chicago Under 189...Chicago always brings the defense at home and the line should probably be in the low 180's. Do you usually just play the point spreads? |
CrazyMilkMan | 57 |
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Love the Cleveland @ Phoenix Under. Great play...PHX is still getting love from oddsmakers for their over totals...and I'm not too sure why. This should be closer to a 190 line, and I would still possibly take the Under at 190, so I'll take 197 or 198 all day.
I like Milwaukee -8 better than the over/under total tonight, Detroit is awful on the road (Well, at home too) so I defintiely see where you are coming from, but Milwaukee scores over 12 points more at home than on the road and I think this over/under total will be too close for comfort in taking the Under...but Milwaukee should take this one by double digits easily. B.O.L. |
BigJeezy70 | 125 |
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With you 100% on Milwaukee tonight. Could be the biggest lock of the first few weeks of the NBA season. Here is what I thought of the game...
Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks (-8) There is no way this line should be in single digits. The Pistons are the worst team in the NBA in my opinion, they really don't have much on either end of the court, I'm really not sure if there defense is worse or if their offense is worse. Either way, lacking in both facets of the game means that the Pistons will probably get blown out in a lot of games this year (as seen by them losing 5 games by more than 20 points thus far). Not only is it their 5th game in 7 nights, their lack of basketball skills are especially seen on the road (0-4 this season), which is where they find themselves tonight...against a very tough home team in Milwaukee. Yes, the 3-6 Milwaukee Bucks are actually 3-0 at home, and score over 12 more points at home than on the road. Also, they finally got Bogut back after missing a few games for personal reasons, and he has been able to get a game and a few practices under his belt to get the rust off. The Detroit Pistons literally have NO ONE to guard a player like Andrew Bogut (Greg Monroe is still a PF in my opinion regardless of what Detroit tries to tell me). Bogut should put up a 20-10 game minimum, and this line should really not be in question at the end. I expect a game like 102-84 (possibly a little less high scoring than this), but an easy cover at Milwaukee -8. |
oddsbuster | 27 |
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Tough shooting night in the Bobcats vs. Knicks game on Monday led to the Over not hitting...however, the Bulls vs. Pistons game that night easily went Under the total so my lean (which I eventually put a bet on) got me to even on the day.
YTD Locks: 1-2 YTD Leans: 1-0 As for tonight: LOCKS OF THE NIGHT: Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks (-8) There is no way this line should be in single digits. The Pistons are the worst team in the NBA in my opinion, they really don't have much on either end of the court, I'm really not sure if there defense is worse or if their offense is worse. Either way, lacking in both facets of the game means that the Pistons will probably get blown out in a lot of games this year (as seen by them losing 5 games by more than 20 points thus far). Not only is it their 5th game in 7 nights, their lack of basketball skills are especially seen on the road (0-4 this season), which is where they find themselves tonight...against a very tough home team in Milwaukee. Yes, the 3-6 Milwaukee Bucks are actually 3-0 at home, and score over 12 more points at home than on the road. Also, they finally got Bogut back after missing a few games for personal reasons, and he has been able to get a game and a few practices under his belt to get the rust off. The Detroit Pistons literally have NO ONE to guard a player like Andrew Bogut (Greg Monroe is still a PF in my opinion regardless of what Detroit tries to tell me). Bogut should put up a 20-10 game minimum, and this line should really not be in question at the end. I expect a game like 102-84 (possibly a little less high scoring than this), but an easy cover at Milwaukee -8. Cleveland Cavaliers @ Phoenix Suns Under 198 For all of the hype there always is aroun the Phoenix Suns offense with Steve Nash on the team, ever since Alvin Gentry took over, the Suns have been more focused on defense than ever before. Remember when they used to base their offense on getting lots of possessions, pushing the pace, and shooting before 14 seconds on the Shot Clock each time down the court? So do I...but it was longer ago than it seems. Where is that pace now? The Suns average the 7th fewest possessions per game in the NBA...the 7th fewest. They are now an older team that is more methodical on how they attack teams than the run n gun offense of old. The Cavs, on the other hand, are getting younger and pushing the pace more...but still are stuggling to find their footing on the road. This leads to low totals for both teams involved. In the first week of the season, Cleveland played at home against Toronto and combined for 200 points with the Raptors...flying over the total. What happened two weeks later when Cleveland went to Toronto with similar rest before each game? The two teams combined for 169 points. Barring a lot of foul shots at the end of the game (doesn't that always seem to be the case??) this game should end in the lower 90's...something like 92-91, which puts it well below the 198 point over/under total. Leans : Orlando -3 @ Golden State As always, comments and questions are much appreciated. B.O.L. |
buckeyes528 | 1 |
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Thanks for the analysis NoFumbles...I was leaning toward the Trail Blazers too, but I think the Over in this game (o/u @ 185) is a better bet than the point spread. The Magic actually have a higher Offensive Efficiency rating (points per 100 possessions) than the Trail Blazers, they just average 5 fewer possessions per game than Portland. However, with Portland on a 2nd game of a back to back, Orlando should be looking to push the tempo more tonight. Also, as you stated, the Trail Blazers won't be that tired tonight even with back to back games because they are healthy, play a deep rotation, and both games were at home anyway so there wasn't travel involved. I am expecting a close game as well so there could be some valuable free throws to push this game over in the last 5 minutes of the game too. I think it will be around a 101-97 type game, so the over 185 should cover easily. Any thoughts?
BOL |
NoFumbles | 30 |
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Line moved down to 201...lot of ppl reacting to Charlotte putting up 77 last game...Pacers defense is far and away better than the Knicks. Stay with the over.
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buckeyes528 | 2 |
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YTD: 1-1
My Oklahoma City analysis and pick were dead on for Friday night, and the Atlanta under would have hit had it not gone to overtime. Oh well, happens to the best of us. Last picks can be found here: https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=22&sub=101231800 As for tonight: LOCKS: Charlotte Bobcats @ New York Knicks OVER 202 I was expecting this line to be closer to 210, so I was happy to see it all the way down at 202 this morning. These two teams met in MSG last week, and Charlotte won 118-110, blowing away the 201.5 total in that game. This will definitely be a revenge game for New York, but them laying 10.5 points is a little much in this situation. However, I do expect the Knicks to be more focused to win this game given their home loss last week, and would stay away from taking Charlotte tonight as the game should end very close to the line. However, there is definitely value in taking the over in this game. As I already mentioned, the last game totaled 228, so these teams have the ability to score against each other. Boris Diaw had by far his best game of the season against the Knicks, who even with the addition of Tyson Chandler don't really have a focus on defense. Also, Maggette is out for the Bobcats, who is one of their only defenders for Carmelo, who put up 32 last week against Charlotte. I see both him and Amare scoring over 30 tonight. Charlotte gives up the most points in the league (with the Knicks the 4th most), and both teams are among the top 10 in number of possessions per game. The pace will be there, the lack of defense will be there, and the easy scoring will be there for this game to go over again. I am expecting a 114-104 type game with the Knicks winning. That is really the only bet I see worth taking tonight. I am leaning toward the Pistons @ Bulls under 179 but think the total will be too close to that to make it worth a straight up wager. As always, thoughts and comments are appreciated. BOL |
buckeyes528 | 2 |
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The Hawks @ Bobcats game just went down a point to 185...I would still hop on the bet even if it gets down to 180, there is still value there.
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buckeyes528 | 3 |
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I have a great track record with sports betting, especially in the NBA and CBB, but that is all talk at this point until I prove my record here. I am going to start posting my picks here daily, and will track my record for the season with each post. I personally watch and attend a lot of NBA games, so my picks will be from a mix of statistics and from the eye-test.
I am here to make ...any and all thoughts, comments and questions will be read and are appreciated, even the haters. Plays for 1/6/2012: LOCKS: Oklahoma City Thunder -9 over Houston Rockets - Game in OKC I have personally seen this Houston team play live, and if you can stop Kyle Lowry, you can limit the offense of the Rockets. They don't really have anyone who can create for anyone else besides Lowry, and depend a lot on Kevin Martin making jump shots and offensive rebounding/post play from Scola. This sets up perfectly for Oklahoma City, who is on 2 days rest and didn't have to travel, and who have the players (Westbrook on Lowry, Durant on Kevin Martin, Kendrick and Serge on Scola) to shut down the main parts of the Houston attack. Not to mention OKC is coming off of 2 straight losses to good teams after starting 5-0, so they will be looking to right the ship tonight. I expect them to win by at least 14-15 points, and the cover should not even be in question...this line should never have been less than double digits. Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Bobcats - Under 186 A lot of people today are talking about the value in taking the Bobcats +1.5, considering that the Hawks just played a multi-OT game last night, are in the middle of a back to back to back situation, and have played 8 games in their last 11 days. You will not see me advocating to take the Bobcats a lot this year (or maybe ever), and especially not after the line has already moved to give them 2 less points than they were getting when this line first opened up. I could definitely see Charlotte not being able to put up enough points to beat Atlanta, even with the tired legs that a jump shooting team like Atlanta will have given their early season schedule. Therefore, DON'T take the point spread in this game, it really is a toss up at this point as the +1.5 Charlotte is getting shows this. However, given this situation, the under 186 is almost guaranteed to hit. Given the pace that the Bobcats play, and the schedule that Atlanta has had to endure to this point, this game should end up in the high 70's or 80's, something like 86-79, which gives plenty of room for the Under to cover with a couple of fluke plays to spare. Good Luck to all...hope we can all make some money together. |
buckeyes528 | 3 |
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