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MATHLETIX_NET | 1 |
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Going back through the last nine seasons to the beginning of the '08 season, and looking only at away teams favored by -3 points, -2.5 points, or -2 points, playing a 'divisional' opponent, having lost to a 'conference' opponent at home the previous week -- just like the Titans are now -- and all six of them failed to cover the number (and five of them weren't even close, missing the number by more than 9 points).
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DKELLEY72875 | 3 |
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Since the '08 season began, we've seen eight games that occurred in September involving 'league' opponents where the home team was coming off of a 'divisional' home win -- just like the Broncos are here -- and seven of those eight games turned into shootouts, exceeding their given point totals by more than 10 points.
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MATHLETIX_NET | 1 |
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Going back through the last nine seasons to the beginning of the '08 season, and looking only at away teams favored by -3 points, -2.5 points, or -2 points, playing a 'divisional' opponent, having lost to a 'conference' opponent at home the previous week -- just like the Titans are now -- and all six of them failed to cover the number (and five of them weren't even close, missing the number by more than 9 points).
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MATHLETIX_NET | 2 |
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Last week, we saw the Packers defeat the Seahawks, 17-9. [Note: We took the wrong side and the wrong total, there.] Coincidentally, that game's relevant now, per SNF, the replay of last season's NFC Championship. Looking back through the last four seasons to the beginning of the '13 season, and only at home teams favored by exactly -3 points, playing a 'conference' opponent, and scheduled to play in a 'conference' away game the following week -- just like the Falcons are now and the Packers were last week -- and all eight of them covered the number.
= https://mathletix.net |
MATHLETIX_NET | 1 |
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Sure, it's not ideal to begin a season with two consecutive away games, and lately, even objectively, it's downright unfair. Looking only at the last two seasons, '16 and '15, we've watched nine games in W2 that involved that situation -- an away team playing in their second consecutive away game, and all nine of them failed to cover the number and also lost the game. (Four of them, despite even being favored to win, got upset.) And here we are now, watching that same situation play out for the Cardinals, the Eagles, and the Jets ...
? https://mathletix.net
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MATHLETIX_NET | 1 |
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PREDICTION: PATRIOTS + OVER
† This NWE team finished the season as the best team against-the-spread, covering the number in 13 of their sixteen games. {*W7: NWE, 27-16} AWAY-TEAM ... -- '15: PIT, = 15/18 > {*W19: PIT, 18-16} '12: (+4.5 to +6.5), AIO3--, = 7/7 (6,4) > {*W7: KAN, 27-21} ? '12: (+4.5 to +6.5), AIO3--, = 7/7 > {*W7: KAN, 27-21} --> MATHLETIX .NET
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MATHLETIX_NET | 1 |
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PREDICTION: FALCONS + UNDER
† {*W8: ATL, 33-32} HOME-TEAM ... ++ '16: ATL, = 9/9 (8,5) > {*W19: ATL, 36-20} '11: (HW>HL), (AW>AL), HRA3-, HPY3+, = 6/7 (4) '08: POST: HPYO+, HPYH+, = 6/6 *'15: HPYO+, HIOO+, = 5/6 (11) > {*W17: ATL, 38-32} *'08: (-4 to -5), HPYH+, HIOH+, = 5/5 (4,5) > {*W19: ATL, 36-20} ? '08: (HW>HL), (AW>AL), HPYO+, HIOO+, = 2/10 (7,3) ! '08: POST, HPY3+, = 7/9 (4) > {*W18: PIT, 30-12} *'08: (-3.5 to -5.5), HPY3+, HIO3++, = 6/8 (4) > {*W17: MIN, 38-10} AWAY-TEAM ... ? '08: (+4 to +5), AIOO+, AIO3+, = 15/19 (13,4) > {*W19: GNB, 34-31} *'12: (+4 to +5), AIO3+, APY3+, = 6/6 (4) > {*W19: GNB, 34-31} --> MATHLETIX .NET |
MATHLETIX_NET | 1 |
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†
This NWE team finished the season as the best team against-the-spread, covering the number in 13 of their sixteen games. {*W7: NWE, 27-16} AWAY-TEAM ... -- '15: PIT, = 15/18 > {*W19: PIT, 18-16} '12: (+4.5 to +6.5), AIO3--, = 7/7 (6,4) > {*W7: KAN, 27-21} ? '12: (+4.5 to +6.5), AIO3--, = 7/7 > {*W7: KAN, 27-21} --> MATHLETIX .NET
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MATHLETIX_NET | 1 |
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†
{*W8: ATL, 33-32} HOME-TEAM ... ++ '16: ATL, = 9/9 (8,5) > {*W19: ATL, 36-20} '11: (HW>HL), (AW>AL), HRA3-, HPY3+, = 6/7 (4) '08: POST: HPYO+, HPYH+, = 6/6 *'15: HPYO+, HIOO+, = 5/6 (11) > {*W17: ATL, 38-32} *'08: (-4 to -5), HPYH+, HIOH+, = 5/5 (4,5) > {*W19: ATL, 36-20} ? '08: (HW>HL), (AW>AL), HPYO+, HIOO+, = 2/10 (7,3) ! '08: POST, HPY3+, = 7/9 (4) > {*W18: PIT, 30-12} *'08: (-3.5 to -5.5), HPY3+, HIO3++, = 6/8 (4) > {*W17: MIN, 38-10} AWAY-TEAM ... ? '08: (+4 to +5), AIOO+, AIO3+, = 15/19 (13,4) > {*W19: GNB, 34-31} *'12: (+4 to +5), AIO3+, APY3+, = 6/6 (4) > {*W19: GNB, 34-31} -- > MATHLETIX .NET
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MATHLETIX_NET | 1 |
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† |
MATHLETIX_NET | 1 |
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+/-, ADVANTAGE/DISADVANTAGE
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MATHLETIX_NET | 14 |
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H/A, HOME/AWAY
R/P, RUSHING/PASSING Y/A, YARDS/ATTEMPTS O/3, OVERALL/LAST-3
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MATHLETIX_NET | 14 |
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PREDICTION: CHIEFS + OVER
† {*W4: PIT, 43-14} HOME-TEAM ... ? '08: KAN, (+0.5 to -2.5), = 2/7 (5,4) ++ '16: HRY3+, HSO3++, = 5/7 (3) > {*W17: PIT, 27-24} AWAY-TEAM ... ? '12: (+0.5 to +1.5), ASOA++, = 5/5 (4,7) > {*W8: OAK, 30-24} '12: (-0.5 to +2.5), AIO3-, AIOA-, = 8/9 (4) > {*W15: NOR, 48-41} ! '08: (+0.5 to +1.5), ASO3+, AIO3-, = 0/5 (4,4) -- '12: (+0.5 to +1.5), AIO3-, = 10/10 (3) > {*W14: CAR, 28-16; TEN, 13-10} '15: PIT, = 14/17 > {*W15: PIT, 24-20} -- > MATHLETIX . NET
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MATHLETIX_NET | 1 |
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PREDICTION: COWBOYS + UNDER
† {*W6: DAL, 30-16} AWAY-TEAM ... ++ '16: APAO-, = 8/11 (3) > {*W17: PIT, 27-24} *'11: (AW>AL, HW>HL), APAO-, APAA-, = 7/10 (3) > {*W16: DAL, 42-21} -- '12: (+4 to +5), ASO3-, = 8/11 (5) > {*W15: NYG, 17-6} ! '12: (+4 to +5), ASO3-, = 9/11 (8,4) > {*W15: NYG, 17-6} ? '08: (+4 to +5), AIOO+, AIO3+, AIOA+, = 11/14 (10,4) > {*W13: KAN, 29-28} *'08: (+4 to +5), AIO3+, APY3+, = 7/7 (6,4) > {*W4: NOR, 35-34} *'12: (+4 to +5), AIO3+, ARY3-, = 7/9 (4) > {*W6: DAL, 30-16} -- > MATHLETIX . NET |
MATHLETIX_NET | 14 |
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Mistakes are lessons.
5th Line?! (Ha.)
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MATHLETIX_NET | 4 |
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PREDICTION: TEXANS + OVER
† {*W3: NWE, 27-0} HOME-TEAM ... ! '12: (<=-13), (>=44,<=45), = 5/5 (4,5) > {*W16: NWE, 41-3} -- '08: POST, HSOO+, = 10/13 (9,5) ++ '08: POST, HRY3-, HIO3++, = 7/9 (4) *'08: (HW>HL, AW>AL), HIOO++, HIO3++, = 22/30 (21,3) > {*W14: NWE, 30-23} AWAY-TEAM ... ? '12: (<=-13), ARY3-, APY3-, = 5/6 (3) > {*W15: SEA, 24-3} -- '08: POST, ARY3-, AIO3++, = 7/10 (5) --> MATHLETIX . NET |
MATHLETIX_NET | 4 |
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PREDICTION: FALCONS + UNDER
† ATL didn't cover the number in their last 3 postseason home games; all of which, went OVER their given totals. {*'12, W19: ATL (defeated SEA), 30-28} {*W6: SEA, 26-24} HOME-TEAM ... ++ '16: ATL, = 8/8 (7,6) > {*W17: ATL, 38-32} -- '08: ATL, (-3.5 to -5.5), = 12/16 (11,3) > {*W13: KAN, 29-28} ? '12: HPYH+, (-4 to -5), = 3/11 (4) > {*W13: KAN, 29-28} ! '16: HPA3-, HIO3++, = 9/10 (8,6) > {*W16: GNB, 38-25; NWE, 41-3} AWAY-TEAM ... ++ '08: SEA, (+3.5 to +5.5), = 6/7 (5,4) --> MATHLETIX . NET |
MATHLETIX_NET | 1 |
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Looking at all games since the beginning of the '12 season; and just 5 of them involved a line favoring the home-team by 13 or more points; and -- a total of 44, 44.5 or 45 points.
= All five of those games -- resulted in the home-team covering the (high) number.
[One of them just happened, coincidentally in New England in W15 when they demolished the Jets, 41-3.] |
MATHLETIX_NET | 2 |
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Looking at all games -- postseason and regular season -- since the beginning of the '12 season, and we've seen just 6 games where:
The away-team entered the game as an underdog of 13 or more points; and entered the game with (1) a Rushing-Yards disadvantage and (2) a Passing-Yards disadvantage when looking at both teams' last three games ... Five of those 6 away-teams covered the number, and convincingly -- by more than 3 points.
[The only one who didn't -- the Rams just a few weeks ago in W15.] -- > MATHLETIX . NET |
MATHLETIX_NET | 1 |
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