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GL, all! Time to go tailgate and (hopefully) get paid!
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KChingon | 7 |
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Texas A&M (-7) @ Ole Miss (1H)
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KChingon | 7 |
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HMC, capdatazz,
Add: Rice (-6) @ Memphis (-105) (2 units)- Rice has their starting QB back after an injury to his non-throwing shoulder kept him out last week. Memphis is still really bad. The line might get a bit lower by game time, but under a TD at -105 is nice. I think they win this by 14+.
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KChingon | 7 |
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Utah (+14.5) vs. USC- USC hasn't shown that they can cover this against anyone this side of Hawaii. Texas A&M (-12) @ Ole Miss- I will also bet the 1H in this one, which has worked well for me with TAMU against SMU and Arkansas. Purdue (+3) vs. Michigan (-105) Southern Miss (+10) vs. Boise State- Boise tried to lose to New Mexico last week and I don't see an AM road game as the time to get back on track. Marshall (+4) vs. Tulsa- This should be a track meet, and I'll take the home dog that has shown it can take advantage of a weak opposing D. Marshall vs. Tulsa (Over 69.5) Rice @ Memphis (Over 62.5) I also like Rice and Clemson ATS, as well as the Texas Tech money line, but I am waiting for more favorable movement. I'm also looking at ISU/TCU under 43. I think that game is going to be a mess, I just don't know if I can pull the trigger. Any thoughts are welcome. |
KChingon | 7 |
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Quote Originally Posted by seminole8: OU by atleast 2 td's. Based on what?
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joewashington | 31 |
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Quote Originally Posted by KChingon:
The problem is that the "pressure the QB and force him into mistakes" model applies for both teams. I still really like Tech and the points. Brown showed last year that he can game plan for OU and Tech has won the last 3 in Lubbock. If 'play like you have a pulse' means 'play like you haven't played in 2 years,' then yes. |
abizzo24 | 8 |
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The problem is that the "pressure the QB and force him into mistakes" model applies for both teams. I still really like Tech and the points. Brown showed last year that he can game plan for OU and Tech has won the last 3 in Lubbock.
If 'play like a pulse' means 'play like you haven't played in 2 years,' then yes.
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abizzo24 | 8 |
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I think WVU is like Tech during the Leach era- all offense and no D. I will bet the ML on Texas, for sure, I just don't feel comfortable with it at a full TD. I would have felt better if the Texas D had shut down OSU last night.
KSU should win by 40. I left it out of my leans because I'm definitely betting it, I just want to see if it drops a point or two.
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HookEmHorns22 | 117 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Fat_Bastard: OU opened at -8, but dropped quickly to -4.5. I wish I could've gotten Tech at +8 and I hope it gets back up to a TD. Oklahoma hasn't won in Lubbock since 2003, and OU has been really unimpressive. It's not like Tech REALLY has the #1 defense in the country, but they are better and faster on both sides of the ball, not to mention healthier, than they were in 2011. I'm not a great capper, but I follow the Big 12 closely and I don't see any value in the OU side.
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HookEmHorns22 | 117 |
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Last Week: 6 - 10, - 4 units
Season: 22 - 19 - 2 , +2.9 units Week 5 was rough, and I probably forced a lot of bets where I didn't see anything great. A few games jumped out at me right away this week. Week 6 AFA (-10) vs. Navy- I know these two have played close games, but AFA is clearly the more talented team and Navy is awful. Iowa State (+12) @ TCU (2 Units)- I don't get this line at all. TCU has been far from stellar on offense since they lost their top RB (yes, I know, they've turned it over in the red zone 5 times), and Iowa State has a very solid defense and a ball-control offense. I think they have a good chance at winning this outright. Texas Tech (+5) vs. Oklahoma- Tech has won the last 3 in Lubbock and they won in Norman last year. I know Tech's defense is not #1 in the country, but they are decent, and Oklahoma has been unimpressive this year. I think it continues with this game. Looks/Leans: Clemson (-10.5) vs. GA Tech - I might wait to see if this one gets to single digits, but I will probably grab it if it doesn't look like that's going to happen. East Carolina (+14) @ UCF Indiana (+14.5) vs. Michigan State- I don't know that Michigan State can score enough to cover this. BC (-9.5) @ Army- BC was not bad at all this weekend, but Army has also looked a little better the last couple of games. Northwestern (+3.5) @ PSU- PSU has looked strong lately, but Northwestern can score. Texas A&M (-9.5) @ Mississippi- I might just wait and take this one in the first half, since Mississippi has the kind of offense that can make this look closer than it really will be. Purdue (+3) vs. Michigan- I need to look more at how Purdue's defense can deal with Michigan's offense. UTEP (-2) vs. SMU North Texas (+11.5) @ Houston |
KChingon | 7 |
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Rice (+8) vs. Houston Texas A&M (-7) vs. Arkansas (1H) (2 units)
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KChingon | 8 |
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SportsFreak
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KChingon | 8 |
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Stanford (-7) @ Washington- While Stanford hasn't shown that they can score a ton of points, they should get into the high 20's or low 30's here, and I don't think Washington scores much. ULM (-17.5) @ Tulane- Tulane gives up a lot of points and doesn't score many. Colorado State (+14.5) @ Air Force- Just way too many points here for this year's AF team to cover. Oregon (-29) @ Washington State- Washington state stops no one and we saw last week what Oregon's D can do. Depending on the size of the 1H line, I might bet bigger when I can get it. Cincinnati (+7.5) @ VA Tech- I think VA Tech wins this, but it should be pretty close. Buffalo (+16) @ UConn- Buffalo looked terrible against Kent, but I'm not sure UConn can take advantage of a weak opposing offense and score enough points to cover this. Georgia (-13.5) vs. Tennessee- Georgia's D will be healthy Minnesota (+7.5) @ Iowa- They're both bad, but I think this one will be close, so anything over a TD looks great. UTEP @ ECU (over 52) - Very little defense played in this one...Rice vs. Houston (Over 74) - They will probably both reach the 40s early in the 4th. I'm also going to take Rice and the points, I just want to see if the line gets to a full TD. |
KChingon | 8 |
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No kidding. That's why I think it might be a small card. I like Texas, Southern Miss, and Rice at this point, and the only others I'm still seriously looking at are ECU, Stanford at less than a TD, and Nevada. Time to start looking at totals, I guess...
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KChingon | 8 |
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Tough not to like the Texas line, especially since it looks like it's -2.5 in some places. UT showed last week that they will open up the playbook against a bad defense. I know UT @ OSU is usually close, I just don't think it will be this time.
I'm still wary of Oregon, but that seems like a 50-point game if it's played at 4 AM on Wednesday. Is Ball going to play for Wisconsin?
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HookEmHorns22 | 59 |
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I am liking the Ball State pick more and more. On the other side, Iowa State is a complete mystery at this point, and they completely show up at home one week, then disappear the next, but they're fast and they can play. Throw out the Iowa game, because it's always weird, and there isn't much to go on. I'll be with you next week vs. OU!
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Cwalk1923 | 4 |
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Week 5
Nebraska (-13) vs. Wisconsin- Nebraska should be able to move the ball some in this one, and Wisconsin hasn't shown that they can. Ball might be out, but it hasn't mattered so far this year. Texas A&M (-13.5) vs. Arkansas- I know Texas A&M tends to fade in the 2nd half, but I don't think they will in this game. TAMU should get into the 40's and force enough turnovers in the 1st half to stay beyond this spread in the end. I will probably add a unit on the 1H line if the juice allows it. TCU (-16.5) @ SMU- Last week vs. UVA looked fishy, but I don't see SMU staying with any decent team this year. TCU forced several turnovers and moved the ball well last week, especially early. Surely they won't turn the ball over in the red zone again this week... Texas (-2.5) @ Oklahoma State- While the Texas defense can be beaten, I think they showed last week that they are willing to open up the offense when they have an advantage. Looks/Leans Stanford (-7) @ Washington- Clemson (-9.5) @ BC- Purdue (-15) vs. Marshall ULM (-17.5) @ Tulane Texas (-2.5) @ Oklahoma State Wake (-3) vs. Duke Oregon (-28.5) @ Washington State ECU (-4.5) vs. UTEP Southern Miss (+10.5) vs. Louisville Nevada (-20) @ Texas State Rice (+4.5) vs. Houston I'm having trouble finding dogs I like this week. It might be a small card.
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KChingon | 8 |
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Last week: 7-5-1, +.4 units
Season: 16-9-2, +6.9 units I got really lucky early and unlucky late. TCU turned the ball over on the 3 yard line. Twice. Then, they scored that weird late TD to answer a late TD. I can't figure them out. I also really didn't do my homework on the Maryland/WVU game, and I was way, way off on WSU/ Colorado. Anyway, any 'above water' week is a good week.
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KChingon | 8 |
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Good luck to you, too, Kk.
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KChingon | 6 |
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Colorado @ WSU over 58
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KChingon | 6 |
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