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Well week 3 was devastating to my theory and last week I was unable to get in to the forum on Saturday night so the results don't count. Overall I am still 4-3-0 for the season, but it seems to be flood or famine with this theory. So far this week the theory shows that Green Bay is a sucker bet tonight. Not sure if it is because of the weather tonight, or Bridgewater's nebulous status, but I believe that
Minnesota +8 is the bet. Good Luck
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DrHuckleberry | 1 |
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Darth you can call me Bluto - those factors that you mentioned do play into it, but are not the only things that I am looking for. There are specific threshold %'s and line movement or lack there of that I need to see. Bottom line. I am looking for teams that I believe the Oddsmakers are willing to bet on in the situation that presents itself. It doesn't always pick dogs and I'm sure that it won't always win. Just something that I'm looking at and hope that it works better than me picking games.
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DrHuckleberry | 4 |
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Alright last week this theory went 4-0 with picks I would have never made (see previous thread for picks and theory). I've been following it again this week and it almost showed 5 games, but one didn't quite qualify (Chargers as a sucker bet) and one went out of sync last night (thankfully it was the Texans being a sucker bet and I am a Texans fan) but both were real close. However, the other three still work. The sucker bets for these would be Dallas, Cincinnati and Chicago. Therefore the bets that should win $$ are:
St. LOUIS +1 TENNESSEE +7 NY JETS -2.5 Of course, I am not recommending that you go throw $$ at these games and this is just testing a theory. We shall see if it works again. |
DrHuckleberry | 4 |
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I'm not using covers for the public money, or the line movement - if the info I am using proves to be right, then my theory works. I believe that Vegas is set up to make $$ (given) if they simply take 50% of the bets on each team and move the line accordingly then they will make money on the juice. However, they are much better cappers than anybody - so if there is evidence throughout 4 or 5 days that they are taking a certain team then it is likely that they know more than I do. I don't gamble, but I am a well educated person that is intrigued by NFL odds and how Vegas can be so good at making great cappers go 50-60% at best. There has to be a trend somewhere - even if certain games have a predetermined outcome. My quest has been to figure it out. I am still not confident that I have, but so far I am better with this theory than anything else.
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DrHuckleberry | 8 |
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Well that would have been a nice parlay - So I am not really good at picking or handicapping games, but I think that Vegas is real good at it. The only team that I would have picked is Baltimore and I would have gone against the rest, but this theory went 4-0 in week 2 and it would have picked Atlanta over New Orleans in week 1, but I didn't believe it so no post. After watching Chicago over San Fran. I a starting to believe that the NFL and WWE have a whole lot in common except that Vegas makes real $$ on the NFL. I'll keep looking for games that fall into this category each week and posting what I believe.
Here's to Blutarsky - Cheers!!
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DrHuckleberry | 8 |
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I've decided to start tracking bets that I feel are sucker bets just based on the % of the public on a team and how the line reacts to that. On Wednesday I posted in another thread that I thought Pittsburgh was a sucker bet on Thursday night based on the public % and the line reaction.
Quote Originally Posted by DrHuckleberry: DegenCurtis21 - I like your write up and I think that you are on to something. From what I can tell 74% of the public is on Pittsburgh at the moment and the line has either stayed at +2.5 or moved to +3 - which tells me that Vegas is begging the public to take Pittsburgh, Same sort of line last week with Atlanta and NO - the line sat on +3 for Atlanta and never moved despite the public betting on NO at 75% or more. Pittsburgh looks like a sucker bet to me I find that watching for specific line movements or lack there of can give some insight as to which team the oddsmakers think will win. There are always a few games each week that fall into this category and I would consider sucker bets - usually bets with a very high % of the public on a team where the line remains on a key number or it moves in favor of that team (reverse movement). Therefore I have decided to track the bets that I feel fall into this category. Baltimore -2.5 did. I would also say that in week 2 that there are three other games that show these signs. The sucker bets would be Denver, Green Bay and San Fran. - which are all teams that at first glance I liked this week. However, based on the lines I believe that: KC +12 NY Jets +8 Chicago +7 Are the real bets that will make $$
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DrHuckleberry | 8 |
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DegenCurtis21 - I like your write up and I think that you are on to something. From what I can tell 74% of the public is on Pittsburgh at the moment and the line has either stayed at +2.5 or moved to +3 - which tells me that Vegas is begging the public to take Pittsburgh, Same sort of line last week with Atlanta and NO - the line sat on +3 for Atlanta and never moved despite the public betting on NO at 75% or more. Pittsburgh looks like a sucker bet to me
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DegenCurtis21 | 40 |
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Well we had another week that hopefully anyone and everyone faded - I think that we had at least one taker last week. So I went 2-3-0 last week for a season total of 37-36-2 - not impressive at the moment. Here are the picks to fade this week
BUFFALO - (+2.5) N.Y. JETS - (-1.5) TENNESSEE - (-5.5) NEW ENGLAND - (+2.5) SAN DIEGO - (-10) |
DrHuckleberry | 1 |
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PATHETIC 0-5 LAST WEEK - I CERTAINLY HOPE THAT ANYONE WHO LOOKED AT MY PICKS LAST WEEK DECIDED TO FADE ME - I AM STILL 35-33-2 FOR THE SEASON WITH EVERY PIC POSTED. HOPE TO MAKE UP A LITTLE GROUND THIS WEEK.
CAROLINA - (-11) MIAMI - (+1) N.Y. GIANTS - (+7) TENNESSEE - (+2.5) ST. LOUIS - (+6) GOOD LUCK TO YOU WHATEVER YOU DECIDE!! |
DrHuckleberry | 2 |
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WENT 4-1-0 LAST WEEK FOR 35-28-2 OVERALL ON THE SEASON THIS WEEKS PICKS ARE:
GREEN BAY - (-3) BALTIMORE - (-7) DETROIT - (+2.5) INDIANAPOLIS - (+6.5) SAN FRANCISCO - (-2.5) GOOD LUCK AND GOOD NIGHT
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DrHuckleberry | 2 |
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Alright after the Thursday night pick we are now 32-27-2 for the season - in hindsight I should have pulled the trigger on Oakland and Pittsburgh, but I felt better about some of the games on Sunday. Here are the rest of my pick 5 for this week.
HOUSTON - (+7.5) CAROLINA - (-8) KANSAS CITY- (+5.5) CINCINNATI - (+1) |
DrHuckleberry | 2 |
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Off another bad week going 2-3-0 for a season total of 31-27-2 - but this week looks more promising. For Thanksgiving I'm taking
DETROIT - (-6) maybe on Oakland or Pittsburgh but will post if I find those games to be better picks than the Sunday games.
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DrHuckleberry | 2 |
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Well last week didn't go so well for me posting a 1-2-2 but I didn't have time to go through everything as well as I would have liked - unfortunately this week is the same. Overall I am 29-24-2 on the season.
Here is this week ST. LOUIS - (-1) CLEVELAND - (-1) OAKLAND - (+1) INDIANAPOLIS - (+2.5) NEW ENGLAND - (+2.5) |
DrHuckleberry | 2 |
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Alright I am 28-22-0 on the season for 56%
This Week BUFFALO - (+1) WASHINGTON - (+4.5) MINNESOTA - (+12) NEW ORLEANS - (-3) CHICAGO - (-3) Good Luck |
DrHuckleberry | 1 |
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Another decent week going 3-2-0 and helping the record slightly. Hopefully on of these weeks soon I will hit 4-5 or 5-5 to boost the %. But for now I am 28-22-0 for the season for 56%. GOOD LUCK this week.
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DrHuckleberry | 5 |
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Thursday night went nicely and puts me at 26-20-0 on the season for 56.5%
The other four picks this week are: ATLANTA - (+6) SAN FRANCISCO - (-5.5) NEW ORLEANS - (-6.5) TAMPA BAY - (+2.5) |
DrHuckleberry | 5 |
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Thus far i am 25-20-0 I am taking Minnesota in my PICK 5 this week. Rest of the bets will come later
MINNESOTA - (+1) |
DrHuckleberry | 5 |
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Well not such a bad week - another 3-2-0 which helps the average. Total for the season is now 25-20-0 for 55.56% - Good Luck this week
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DrHuckleberry | 4 |
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22-18-0 FOR THE SEASON PICKING 5 GAMES A WEEK
WEEK 9 SEATTLE - (-15.5) OAKLAND - (+2.5) WASHINGTON - (+1) NEW ENGLAND - (-7) CHICAGO - (+10.5) |
DrHuckleberry | 4 |
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Another 3-2-0 week which keeps helping the average and totals. After week 8 I am now 22-18-0 for the 2013 season (55% on picks). Keep rolling.
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DrHuckleberry | 2 |
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