UFC Fight Night Barboza vs Murphy Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Barboza Stands Tall in Main Event Bout

Edson Barboza takes on Lerone Murphy in the main event of tonight's UFC Fight Night betting. Barboza enters the weekend as the No. 12-ranked featherweight contender, while Murphy is on a five-fight win streak inside the octagon. 

This is expected to be a close fight, with UFC odds installing Murphy as a -155 favorite and Barboza coming back at +135. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy picks and predictions for May 18 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Barboza vs Murphy prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Barboza ML (+120 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Barboza ML (+120 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Don't put too much stock in Murphy's winning streak since those came against cans, and he hasn't looked that impressive even against weak opponents. He lost the first round to Makwan Amirkhani (just 1-6 in his last seven bouts) and eked out a split decision against Gabriel Santos, who is 0-2 in the UFC. 

Even in his most recent victory against Joshua Culibao, he needed to rely on his rarely-used wrestling. If he had trouble standing up with Culibao, he won't be able to outstrike Barboza, who has highly-technical Muay Thai featuring great leg kicks and crisp boxing.

Despite his advanced age, Barboza knocked out Billy Quarantillo in the first round last April before out-pointing Sodiq Yusuff later that year. Barboza was put on skates in the opening round versus Yusuff, but he weathered that early storm and picked him apart over the final three rounds. 

Murphy doesn't have the power to put Barboza away early, and Barboza's experience in main events could again lead to an advantage in the later rounds. Murphy's tendency to pressure with his boxing will also get him into trouble against Barboza's crisp counter-striking.

Best best analysis

We're getting favorable odds on Barboza since he's 38 years old and has wear and tear on his body after 29 fights in the UFC. That said, he has still shown the ability to beat guys outside the Top 10, and Murphy's stock is inflated due to wins against a low level of competition. 

From purely a skills perspective, Barboza is still a better fighter than Murphy and his physical attributes haven't diminished to the point where he should necessarily be the underdog here. I like the betting value with Barboza at +120, and I expect it to pay off again after winning as a +140 dog against Yusuff last fall.

Method of Victory	Barboza	Murphy
To win outright	+135	-155
To win by KO/TKO	+275	+285
To win by points	+500	+170
To win by submission	+1,900	+1,500
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 5-18.

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Barboza vs Murphy tale of the tape

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