There are a pair of games on the ice this Thursday, and the Carolina Hurricanes and Edmonton Oilers are both healthy favorites. The Hurricanes can force a Game 7 against the New York Rangers with a win, while the Oilers are looking to take a 3-2 series lead back to Edmonton by topping the Vancouver Canucks.
Here are our free NHL player props for all the action on Thursday, May 16.
NHL prop picks and best bets for May 16
- Necas Over 2.5 shots on goal (-130 at BET99)
- Shesterkin Over 30.5 saves (-125 at BET99)
- Draisaitl Over 3.5 shots on goal (+105 at BET99)
Picks made on 5-16 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Give Necas a nod
Carolina Hurricanes winger Martin Necas has been an inconsistent shooter in the playoffs after pacing the club in shots (230) and ranking second in attempts (437) during the regular season. His 65 postseason attempts are second on the Hurricanes, but he’s only turned them into 22 shots for a 33.8% conversion rate that’s well below his 52.6% mark during the regular season.
It’s typical for attempts to be more difficult to turn into shots in the playoffs — chiefly because of the added emphasis on shot blocking — but the pendulum has swung too far in this case. Being a go-to shooter on the No. 2 power-play unit is another reason I’m targeting these Martin Necas odds.
This is also a good setup with the New York Rangers a far worse 5-on-5 possession team on the highway than at home dating back to the regular season. The Rangers posted a 52.2 CF% at 5-on-5 at Madison Square Garden during the regular season with a 48.1 CF% on the road, and the Blueshirts have dipped to respective 46.3% and 42.1% marks during the playoffs.
Martin Necas prop: Over 2.5 shots on goal (-130 at BET99)
Prop bet #2: Shot storm coming Shesterkin’s way
I expect the Hurricanes to pepper Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin with shots in Game 6. The Hurricanes pace the postseason in shots (35.99) and attempts (81.93) per 60 minutes on home ice, and as discussed, 5-on-5 possession has been an ongoing weakness for the Blueshirts on the road while it's Carolina’s calling card at home.
Shesterkin has gone Under this saves total in consecutive games, but the Hurricanes still topped 30 shots and held the lead for 58:09 of 60 minutes at home in Game 4, and then Game 5 was on the road.
Additionally, the back-to-back Unders are actually a main reason I value these Igor Shesterkin odds. He closed with a 32.5 saves total in Game 4 at PNC Arena, and remember, Shesterkin made 45 saves in Game 3. Look for him to land in the middle on Thursday.
Igor Shesterkin prop: Over 30.5 saves (-125 at BET99)
Prop bet #3: Look to Leon
The playoffs and Edmonton Oilers star Leon Draisaitl continue to be a perfect match, as he’s registered four or more shots in three consecutive games. Draisaitl is also tied for the team lead with 39 postseason shots and his 65 attempts rank second. I also particularly value these Leon Draisaitl odds because of his role as the go-to shooter on the No. 1 power-play unit.
The 5-on-5 play has also gone Draisaitl’s way through four Round 2 games against the Vancouver Canucks, with the German center sporting a 63.2 Corsi For percentage and 62.9% shot share.
Finally, if Edmonton head coach Kris Knoblauch opts to promote Draisaitl to Connor McDavid’s wing it’s a plus, and Draisaitl faces softer on-ice matchups at even strength if he centers his own line. It's a rare win-win when it comes to line juggling.
Leon Draisaitl prop: Over 3.5 shots on goal (+105 at BET99)
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