It’s fitting that the team that drafted Caitlin Clark into the WNBA is nicknamed the Fever. With the No. 1 overall pick making her pro debut tonight, that’s exactly what’s spreading across the sports betting landscape: Caitlin Clark fever.
Sportsbooks are reporting a rush of one-sided action on the Indiana Fever’s season opener against the Connecticut Sun, including Caitlin Clark’s odds for tonight’s contest.
According to BetMGM sportsbooks, there are three times more bets placed on Indiana versus Connecticut than any of the other three WNBA debuts on Tuesday. What’s more, the Over on Clark’s points — 20.5 Over/Under — is the most wagered on player prop not only for the WNBA book but also includes action on tonight’s two NBA playoff games.
This doesn’t come as a surprise to sportsbooks. They’ve drawn a ton of support on Indiana’s WNBA futures odds – to win the title, Over win total, make the playoffs — all offseason, and some books even opened Clark specials, allowing you to bet on season-long stat props for the new face of the WNBA.
Clark and the Fever are currently between +7.5 and +8.5 for tonight’s tilt in Connecticut, with the status of last year’s leading scorer, Kesley Mitchell, listed as a game-time decision (ankle). Mitchell’s minutes will have a significant impact on Indiana’s outcome as well as how much of the offense Clark has to shoulder.
Here’s a look at Caitlin Clark’s odds for tonight’s game as well as my best WNBA picks and predictions for Clark’s first regular season showing.
Caitlin Clark best bet: Over 6.5 assists
Clark’s prowess as a playmaker often takes a backseat to her shooting, but she lifted her teammates in Iowa up and will continue to do so in Indiana.
If Connecticut does attack Clark on the perimeter, she’ll be forced to put the ball on the ground, drive the middle, and dish off to open hands. I also can’t wait to see her and Aliyah Boston iron out the wrinkles on the pick-and-roll, with Boston a massive step up in talent compared to Clark’s Hawkeye teammates.
Player projections for Clark’s assists hover around six dimes against the Sun. Again, if Mitchell is out, Clark will have the ball in her hands more and will be asked to create.
The Over 6.5 was priced as low as -110 but with books reporting 74% of ticket count on the Over, the market has moved to Over 6.5 -136. You can still get it at -115, which is my favorite bet of all the Clark props tonight.
Best bet: Over 6.5 Assists (-115 at bet365)
More Caitlin Clark props
Caitlin Clark points: 20.5 Over/Under
This scoring prop looks like a Caitlin Clark halftime line during her time in Iowa, but points are much harder to come by in the WNBA. Last season, there were only five players that averaged 20-plus per game and that was a historically strong scoring season.
The Connecticut Sun are a veteran team and will likely deploy an aggressive approach to containing Clark. Expect the defense to pick Clark up at half, get their heels above the 3-point arc, and switch heavy on any screens with defenders going over the top, so as to not allow Clark space to shoot.
I will say, WNBA player projections aren’t shying away from a strong showing from Clark and she’s going to get her opportunities, especially if Mitchell sits out. But I’m not rushing out to bet on the single most popular bet on the board tonight, with books reporting 59% of bets taking the Over.
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Caitlin Clark rebounds: 4.5 Over/Under
Clark averaged more than seven rebounds a game in college, but that Iowa team played a breakneck pace (more shot attempts) and she was able to battle under the boards with smaller matchups.
The WNBA is much more physical, and Clark won’t be asked to go at it on the glass. She did, however, have eight rebounds in her second preseason game.
Her rebounding total for tonight’s debut is 4.5 O/U against a Sun team that ranked Top 5 in rebound rate in 2023. Tonight's game models sit pretty much on this total with Clark projected for four and a half boards.
If you are among the many taking the Over 4.5 rebounds, shop around. You can find this proposition between -112 and -130 as of Tuesday afternoon.
Caitlin Clark 3-pointers made: 3.5 Over/Under
According to BetMGM books, 80% of tickets on this 3-pointer prop are taking the Over 3.5 triples from Clark tonight. This market opened as cheap as Over 3.5 -105 and is now as expensive as -155.
For me, Clark isn’t in Indiana to do layups. She’s going to get designated calls for 3-point attempts and ATO plays on top of creating space for herself. She attempted 22 of her total 27 shots from beyond the arc in the two preseason games, making seven of those long-range looks.
The Sun will do their best not to let Clark get going from deep, which means tight defense and forcing her to put the ball on the floor. With this spread ticking up, the game script says the Fever will be fighting from behind, so Clark could get some desperation chucks in the second half.
Here’s the thing: Clark will always be live to go Over her 3-point prop. It comes down to how much you’re willing to pay to bet it.
