After getting rained out last night, the Toronto Blue Jays finish up their series with the Baltimore Orioles bright and early today with a 12:35 p.m. ET first pitch.
Toronto manager John Schneider has elected to skip over Chris Bassitt and start Yusei Kikuchi on regular rest — with the O's still sending out Kyle Bradish, my Blue Jays vs. Orioles predictions aren't expecting a ton of offense in a getaway day scenario.
Read on to see why my MLB pick for today features Kikuchi's strikeout prowess as well as the low-scoring total.
Blue Jays vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-106 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays must hope yesterday's game being postponed due to rain doesn’t halt their momentum from a series-opening win against the American League East-leading Baltimore Orioles.
The Jays now hand the ball to Yusei Kikuchi for today’s matinee matchup instead of Tuesday's scheduled starter Chris Bassitt.
Kikuchi has gone from a great bounce-back season last year to a dominant starter in 2024. The left-hander has arguably been the Blue Jays' best starter this season, pitching to a 2.78 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .233 expected batting average.
He’s also striking batters out at a solid rate (24.3%) but his command has maybe been most impressive. Walks had always been a problem for Kikuchi but his 4.8% walk rate is the best of his career and in the 87th percentile among MLB pitchers. Not giving the Orioles extra baserunners will be essential if Toronto hopes to win another.
Baltimore sticks with its original game script by handing the ball to Kyle Bradish. The O’s right-hander is making just his third start of the season due to some elbow issues. But his elbow sure looks fine now.
Bradish has allowed just two earned runs on eight hits while striking out 14 over 9 2/3 innings of work. He has also had plenty of success against the Blue Jays. The righty tossed two almost identical 7-inning gems against the Jays last season. On June 14, he allowed just one run on four hits and later gave up three runs on four hits and struck out seven in early August.
Today, he faces a Jays lineup that is still trying to get rolling, ranking 22nd in batting average and 26th in OPS when facing right-handed pitching.
Mix in the early start and the potential “let’s get outta here” element, and pitching should have the edge.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Yusei Kikuchi Over 5.5 strikeouts (-111 at PROLINE+)
Yusei has been one of the few bright spots for the Blue Jays this season and let’s not sugarcoat it. With Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt not as sharp as last season, they have needed him in a big way.
Kikuchi’s ERA is by far the best of his career. Additionally, because he limits walks, he is pitching deeper into games than ever before. Kikuchi has pitched at least six innings in six consecutive starts. So, while his strikeout rate isn’t as high as it has been in the past, he’s getting the opportunity to face far more batters in a start, and it’s certainly high enough to rack up some Ks against the Orioles.
Baltimore has been tough on left-handers this season, but there is a clear swing for the fences mentality with this lineup and while it has meant a lot of home runs, it also means a lot of strikeouts. The Orioles have the 10th-highest K-rate when facing left-handed pitching this season at 23.3%.
Kikuchi is striking out about a batter an inning this season but if you look at his game logs, it’s been somewhat all-or-nothing. He has four starts with four or fewer strikeouts and four with seven or more. This matchup against the free-swinging O’s has me betting today will resemble the latter.
Ontario sports bettors: Play the Jays your way with PROLINE+
Ontario-owned and operated, PROLINE+ has a robust market offering at its disposal and reinvests 100% of its profits back into the province — join today!
Blue Jays vs Orioles odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles live odds
Blue Jays vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: Toronto +1.5 (-190) | Baltimore -1.5 (+160)
- Moneyline: Toronto +110 | Baltimore -130
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Blue Jays vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened this AL East rivalry around +105, but have since moved to the +115 to +120 price.
- Monday's win was just the Blue Jays fourth in their last 14 games against the Orioles, dating back to last season.
- The total hit the board at 8.5, amid uncertainty about whether Bassitt or Kikuchi would start, and went down to 7.5 once the lefty was confirmed.
- Toronto went 2-2 in Kikuchi starts vs. Baltimore last season, although the two most recent starts were victories.
Blue Jays vs Orioles trend
The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.50 Units / 21% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs Orioles.
Blue Jays vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-15-2024 |
| First pitch: | 12:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN, MASN |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Yusei Kikuchi (2-3, 2.64 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Kyle Bradish (0-0, 1.86 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Orioles latest injuries
Blue Jays vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
